U.S. Indexes closed mixed when looking on a sector basis, as Consumer Discretionary surged thanks to Amazon’s 10% rally on a profit, revenue, and AWS beat. In tech, Apple was marginally higher but reversed earlier gains to close 0.5% lower as participants weighed the miss on some metrics (mainland China, iPhone, and Mac revenue) against the positive Q1 revenue outlook, which seemingly puts the impacts from the iPhone Air launch delay in the past. Utilities, Materials, and Staples underperformed and were in the red. Market-moving updates included reports from the Miami Herald (which synced up with the Wall Street Journal reports) that the US has decided to attack military sites in Venezuela that could come at any moment, as the sites are being used to smuggle drugs. A fleeting risk-off trade was seen, with US President Trump later refuting the prospects of a strike on Venezuela. Crude prices saw upside on the Miami Herald report, which held to some extent throughout the day but ~ USD 0.50/bbl off highs. For the U.S. Dollar and Treasuries, pertinent updates came via the Fed, where Fed’s Schmid, Logan, and Hammack argued against lowering rates in October and beyond, citing either/both concerns over high inflation or an economic outlook that argued otherwise. Treasuries settled mixed, with the long end seeing modest losses while the opposite was seen in the short end. The Dollar extended post-Fed gains amid a slight reduction in rate cut expectations at the Fed’s December meeting. The Japanese Yen outperformed with unchanged performance versus the Dollar as hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI provided support. Fed Member Logan – voter 2026 – preferred to hold rates last week as the economic outlook did not justify a move and finds it difficult to support another cut in December. Stated the labour market is roughly balanced and cooling slowly, with low layoffs and unemployment claims, though she’s mindful of recent layoff announcements. She also touted that the breakeven rate has fallen to 30k. Logan emphasised that inflation risks remain, and the Fed had already mitigated employment risk with the September cut. On rates, Logan said that she is disappointed to see market repo rates rise above the Fed’s ceiling rates. She also reiterated calls to modernise the Fed Funds target rate. She suggested the Fed should shift the policy target from the Fed Funds rate to a repo-based rate. Meanwhile, Schmid – 2025 voter and dissenter – voted to keep rates unchanged due to continued economic momentum and concerns over high and potentially spreading inflation, which he noted is affecting both goods and services. Described policy as only modestly restrictive and argued it still needs to lean against demand and price pressures. He said the labour market is largely in balance and that any stress likely stems from structural changes, not something small cuts would fix. Schmid also warned that lowering rates too soon could undermine the Fed’s commitment to the 2% target. Regarding rising prices, he specifically noted that rising healthcare costs and insurance premiums are at the top of mind. Hammack – 2026 voter said she would not have cut rates in October, citing challenges to both sides of the mandate and stressing that policy is now around neutral and barely restrictive. She said the Fed cut in September because of the sharp drop in Payrolls, but since then, it is not obvious that the shift in the labour market is on the demand side. Hamamck argued that some restriction still needs to be maintained to bring inflation down, especially with little to no progress on core services ex-housing and additional pressures from tariffs, electricity, and insurance. Hamamck noted there are some emerging signs of labour softness, including layoffs, but said the Fed is missing more on the inflation side than on jobs. Emphasised the need to stay restrictive while remaining open-minded to new labour data ahead of December. On the balance sheet, she said there is a benefit to having the smallest possible balance sheet they can have, and that she agrees with Fed’s Logan that she wants to see Repo rates trading roughly in line with interest on reserve rates. Finally, Bostic – 2027 voter – ultimately supported last week’s rate cut but noted that mandates are in tension. He said the Fed is still in restrictive territory and needs to bring inflation down to 2%, though more progress is needed before feeling comfortable moving to neutral. Bostic acknowledged that less than half of upward price pressures are due to tariffs. He described the current environment as uncertain but not flying blind and said some labour market shifts are structural. Backed Powell’s message that a December cut is not a foregone conclusion and reiterated that policy remains data-dependent. On the balance sheet, he also said he would like a little extra buffer on the balance sheet, noting he is “team abundant”, versus Hammack, who is “team ample”. As was very much expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on the Deposit Rate at 2.0% at Thursday’s Meeting. The decision to do so was based on the lack of incremental shifts in data since the September meeting and confidence that indicators of underlying inflation are consistent with the ECB’s target. Additionally, the ECB retained its meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach. At the follow-up press conference, President Lagarde reaffirmed that policy is in a “good place” but it is not a fixed point and the GC will do whatever is necessary to stay in a good place. With regards to the decision itself, the President stated that it was a unanimous one. In terms of the economic assessment, Lagarde stated that some of the downside risks to growth have abated. However, the same cannot be said for inflation. Overall, despite some of the risks surrounding the Euro-Zone outlook (US trade policies, appreciation in the EUR, French politics), the ECB remains confident in the bloc’s growth outlook, whilst cautious of potential upside inflation risks. As such, the bar for a rate cut in the near-term remains a high one. Market pricing concurs with just 1bps of loosening seen for the December confab. The next inflection point will likely come via the next round of macro projections in December, which will include the debut 2028 forecast. Later, Reuters via sources, reported that ECB policymakers are preparing for a December showdown on inflation and rates; some think 2028 inflation projection would warrant rate cut debate, others favour giving little weight to any small undershooting three years ahead. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.68% while Gold ended Friday with a loss of 0.55%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1003 points on Friday, ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher at a price of 6840.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points higher for a 0.09% gain at a price of 47,562.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.48% higher at a price of 25,858.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.51% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 2.42% higher at a price of 52,411.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.19% higher.
The Euro closed 0.27% lower at $1.1532.
The British Pound closed 0.21% lower at $1.3145.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.35% closing at $153.92
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points higher at 4.41%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.62%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.08%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.68% higher at $60.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.55% lower at $4002.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 pm and 2.45 pm respectively. Next, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Daly and Cook at 6.00 pm and 8.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The percentage of bears in the latest Weekly Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey has plunged to just 13.5%, the lowest reading in nearly eight years, since January 2018, a peak that led to a two-year bear market formation. A whopping 86.5% of advisors are either bullish right now or intend to be bullish after a market pullback. The current low percentage is rare and is compatible with a fifth wave in its late stages. When the fifth wave is complete, stocks in my opinion will experience the biggest plunge of our lifetime. A big difference this year is the leverage investors employed to get stocks to their latest new highs. Margin debt hit $1.3 trillion in September, a new record that pushes the total 20.8% past its high point at the end of the last major peak in November 2021. This conventional measure of margin debt is at scary heights. Why would you want to be long the S&P when the dividend yield has declined to just 1.17%. The only lower reading came in August 2000. By October 2002 the subsequent bear market eliminated half of the S&P’s total value. I have no idea when this market tops out but these numbers are not sustainable. AI is similar to the dot-com era of the late 1990’s before the crash came leading to a 78% fall in the NASDAQ 100. My patience with my 6865 short S&P position paid off as the market traded lower to my 6840 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P again at a price of 6882 before selling off to my 6845 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the Gold losses recorded in October we have had an excellent month. I will continue with my strategy of selling rallies. Today, my sell level will be from 6865/6885 with no stop if triggered. The S&P has strong support at 6750. I would expect any initial tag of this support line to me by strong buying. Therefore, I will be a buyer 6740/6760 with a 6725 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6830. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6788.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro as the market jus missed Thursday’s sell range before closing the week at a price of 1.1530. I have been looking for a move lower in the Euro over the past few months but the sell-off has been extremely slow. The Euro has major support at 1.1400 and a break and close below here will open a further move lower to 1.1220. Therefore, today, I will be a strong buyer from 1.1380/1.1450 with a 1.1315 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1530. I no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar just missed Thursday’s buy level before closing the week at a price of 99.70. Today, I will raise my buy level to 98.50/99.20 with a higher 97.85 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.30.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Despite the increased volatility in the other three main American Indexes, the Russell traded in a narrow range ending the week at a price of 2490. Today, I will leave my sell range unchanged at 2515/2575 with the same 2615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2470.
FTSE 100
My average short 9745 FTSE position worked well as the market sold off to my revised 9692 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has resistance from 9750/9830 where I will again be a seller with a higher 9905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9695. Given how overbought the FTSE is trading I have no interest in being a buyer anywhere near current prices.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 47960-sell level before falling over 500 points. Unfortunately, I covered this position too early at my revised 47780 T/P level and I am still flat. There is every chance that the Dow has put in at least a short-term top at last week’s 48100 all-time high. TBD. The Dow has short-term resistance from 47850/48100 where I will be a strong seller with the same wider 48405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 47610. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market rallied to my 26210-sell level before trading lower to my revised 26070 T/P level and I am now flat. I tried to sell the NDX again on Friday but the market just missed my sell range before falling 300 points. The Market Cap of the major Tech Companies is just mind blowing with PE’s and Forward Earnings at levels that make absolutely no sense to me. The NDX has resistance from 26080/26280 where I will again be a seller with a lower 26455 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25910.
December BUND
I am still long from 10 days ago at a price of 130.00. I will continue to look to add to this position at 129.30 while leaving my 128.55 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 130.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has seen plenty of two-way price action over the past week and I am still flat. My only interest in buying Gold is on a further dip lower to 3860/3890 with a 3825 higher wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3923. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
It took a long time buy finally Silver rallied to my 49.30 T/P level on my 49.20 average long position and I am now flat. This morning, Silver is trading lower at 48.65. We have short-term support from 46.80/47.80 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 45.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 48.60.
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