U.S Equity Markets closed higher across the board on Friday. The NASDAQ 100 led gains helped by Apple (AAPL) making history, becoming the first company ever to reach a market value of $3 trillion. The tech giant’s stock closed 1% higher, pushing Apple’s equity capitalisation above $3 trillion and increase its year-to-date gain to 46%. The achievement reflects the company’s strong performance and the continued dominance of big tech companies in the market. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of President Joe Biden’s plan to cancel $430 billion in student loan debt later today. This plan was intended to benefit up to 43 million Americans and fulfil a campaign promise made by President Biden. This ruling is one of two major decisions expected to be issued by the justices on the final day of their term, which began in October. The outcome of this case carries significant economic implications for the 26 million U.S. borrowers who applied for relief under Biden’s plan between August 2022 and November 2022 when lower courts blocked its implementation. European Markets closed higher. In June, core inflation in the Euro-Zone experienced a re-acceleration, posing a challenge for the European Central Bank (“ECB”) and potentially strengthening its resolve to raise interest rates in the coming months. The measure of underlying consumer-price gains, which excludes volatile items such as fuel and food, reached 5.4%, slightly below economists’ median estimate. This increase was driven by a marked pickup in the cost of services. However, the headline inflation gauge showed an improvement, moderating to 5.5% from 6.1% as energy costs declined. In Asia, the Nikkei closed at a new 33-year high this morning, rising over 1.60% to close at a price of 33,718. European Union (“EU”) leaders are gathering for a two-day summit in Brussels, where they are expected to discuss reducing the bloc’s reliance on China and finding a balance between “de-risking” while maintaining appropriate relations. The leaders aim to address concerns about the growing relationship between China and Russia and its potential implications for the EU. Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins highlighted the need to de-risk and suggested that some degree of stepping back might be necessary. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.12% while Gold closed higher by 0.4%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 230 points on Friday, closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.23% higher at a price of 4450.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 285 points higher for a 0.84% gain at a price of 34,407.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.60% higher at a price of 15,179.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.16% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.59% higher at a price of 33,718.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.39% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0907.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.2676.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $144.61.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.39%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 4.38%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 3.83%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.12% higher at $70.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% higher at $1915.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 and 2.45 pm respectively. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Wrong! I misread the extent of Friday’s bullishness ahead of a long weekend in America. Cash Equity Markets are only open for a half-day today and are closed tomorrow for the July 4th Holiday. Nothing matters. If Bond yields go up it does not matter. If they go down like they did on Friday it is bullish. Similarly with the Dollar which had a small sell-off on Friday and this was deemed bullish by the market. I could go on. The bottom line is the S&P is accounting for no risks and are discounting everything as multiple expansion continues to expand month after month. This has been the case since the Fed intervened following the SVB collapse in March. On Friday the S&P hit my second sell level at 4420 for a 4411 average short position. I had enough of watching this loss grow bigger and I emailed my Platinum Members to exit at 4439. I am still flat as the S&P closed at a new high for the year. We have resistance from 4460/4480 where I will again be a seller with a 4491 ‘’Closing Stop’’, If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 4442.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long at 1.0900 with a now lower 109.50 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0830 while leaving my 1.0785 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I will not chase the Dollar higher, leaving my 102.00/102.60 buy level unchanged with the same 101.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 103.05.
Cash DAX
Despite higher core inflation the DAX surged on Friday, and I am still flat. Thankfully, we had no sell level in this market with the DAX trading 220 points higher from where I marked prices on Friday morning. Even though the price action is bullish I just cannot be a buyer of this market at these nosebleed valuations. The DAX has resistance from 16300/16400 where I will be a seller with a 16505 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
Unfortunately, the FTSE missed my 7450 initial buy level by 10 points before having a nice 80-point rally and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 7430/7490 with a tight 7385 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow built on Thursday’s gains helped by the outperformance of the Bank Index and the small cap Russell 2000. The Dow closed last week with a gain of 2%. This move higher helped the Dow to a 2023 gain of just 3.08%. Given its underperformance against both the S&P and NDX, the Dow is not the market to be short. I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Friday’s buy level. I will now raise my buy level to 33950/34200 with a higher 33795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has had its best start to a year in over 40 years, ending June with year-to-date gain of over 31%. This move higher almost reverses the 33% fall that the NDX experienced in 2022. Much to my frustration, we saw no end of Quarter re-balancing as the NDX was jammed into Friday’s close for month and quarter end. Nothing matters as investors continue to recklessly pile into extreme valuations and chart extensions. For now, traders are being rewarded with this strategy because volatility is non-existent. On Friday the NDX hit my 15200-sell level before selling off to my revised 15150 T/P level and I am now flat. I covered this latest short position as I wanted to reduce my S&P loss. Today, I will again be a seller from 15220/15370 with a 15505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 15090.
September BUND
No Change. I am still long from last week at 133.50 with the same 133.95 T/P level. I will add to this position at 132.70 with the same 132.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold bounce, closing back above 1900 as the market awaits the next significant move for the precious metal. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1887/1902 with a higher 1865 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver continues to trade in a narrow range below 23.00. I am still long at an average rate of 23.63 with the same 24.40 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. If this changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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