U.S. Equity Markets reversed afternoon losses to close higher on Friday. Following a volatile trading session that saw plenty of two-way price action, a late rally saw the three main Indexes close higher by an average 0.75%. This move higher saw the VIX end Friday with a loss of 9% at a rate of 15.68. The 46th annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium took place over the weekend, with multiple speakers from the Federal Reserve and global central banking leaders. The focal point on Friday was the much-awaited speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair indicated that the Fed are prepared to raise Interest Rates further if deemed necessary. The next move will be based on incoming economic data. Powell said the Fed will proceed ‘’carefully’’ when deciding to hike rates again or maintain them at current levels. There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy meaning the Fed will have to be ‘’agile’’ with their policy decisions. Powell also noted that inflation is higher than desired while maintaining they remain committed to a 2% inflation target. Mastercard (MA) announced that it will end its card partnership with the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance. The move will affect all four of Mastercard’s co-branded card programmes, in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Bahrain, starting September 22. This move comes amid the ongoing legal issues facing Binance, including lawsuits by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) alleging securities and trading violations. While Mastercard said this will not impact any other crypto card programmes, the decision does raise questions about its commitment to incorporating cryptos into its business. Federal Reserve officials Susan Collins and Patrick Harker disagree on the potential path of interest-rate hikes ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the central bank may need additional rate hikes. Though she did not signal the exact peak for interest rates, she said we could be close to a point where the Fed can hold rates steady. On the other hand, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the Fed has “probably done enough” with policy tightening and needs time to assess its impact on the economy. Fed officials’ differing policy stances have only increased the uncertainty around the upcoming rate decision. European Markets closed mixed. Speaking on Saturday at Jackson Hole, ECB President Lagarde is ‘’pretty confident’’ that by end of 2023 inflation numbers will look different. She said German growth is not broken but instead is demonstrating resilience. Finally, Lagarde said that changing the inflation target would be ‘’deceptive’’ and counter to anchoring expectations. In August, Consumer Confidence in the U.K. experienced a resurgence, bouncing back from a slight dip the previous month. Throughout the year, consumers have been gradually gaining more confidence, a notable shift since hitting its lowest point last September. This can be attributed to the gradual easing of inflation and the sustained strength of wage growth. Despite this encouraging trend, the confidence levels continue to sit in negative territory, a fact accentuated by recent drops in Retail Sales. It is evident that consumers are proceeding with a sense of caution, prioritising price considerations in their recent behaviours. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1% on Friday while Gold fell 0.2% following another quiet trading session.
To mark my 2850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 270 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1317 points for August following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 4405.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 247 points higher for a 0.73% gain at a price of 34,346.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.85% higher at a price of 14,941.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.04% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.05% lower at a price of 31,624.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0794.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 125.80.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $146.41.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.56%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.24%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1% higher at $79.83 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $1913.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. With London closed for the U.K. Bank Holiday, the only other data of note is the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Just when it looked like the S&P was going to break key support levels on Friday, large buying again rescued the market helping the S&P to close over its 5 EMA and 8 MA. This buy the dip should come as no surprise given the fact that the $BPSPX closed with a 14 Day RSI reading of 14. This is the lowest close in 3.5 years (Covid Crash) and the at the same price in August 2019. Then what happened was more chop before the lows were set for the rest of the year. These are pretty wild extremes and have to be respected. These lows are occurring right in front of positive seasonality. So, in theory new highs in September would technically not be out of the question. This is why I have no interest in pressing the Downside despite Thursday’s across the board Downside Key Day Reversals. However, for bulls to regain control the S&P needs to break and close over both its 20 Day Moving Average and 50 Day Moving Average. Frustratingly, I was extremely unlucky on Friday as the S&P missed my 4355 buy level by 1-Handle before rallying 50 Handles off this low print into the Chicago close. Can the S&P trade lower? Yest without the confirmed break back above the 20 and 50 MA’s, but each move lower will only exacerbate the oversold signal charts. Thus at this stage I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on dips. I will now raise my S&P buy level to 4375/4390 with a higher 4359 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well on Friday. Shortly after lunch the Euro rallied to my 1.0815 T/P level on my latest 1.0780 long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Euro again which I did at a price of 1.0770. I am still long with a now lower 1.0840 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.0700 while leaving my 1.0655 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still short from last Thursday at 103.90 with the same 103.40 T/P level. I will look to add to this position at 104.60 with the same 105.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Just like the American Indexes, the DAX also reversed earlier losses by rallying into the New York close. I still do not like the price action in the DAX despite consistently finding strong buying on any move below 15600. With London closed today, I would expect a quiet session for the DAX. I will now raise my DAX buy level to 15460/15550 with a higher 15375 stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 15625.
Cash FTSE
With London Markets closed today, I will stay flat the FTSE until the cash markets re-open tomorrow morning.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well on Friday. Just before Fed Chair Powell’s speech the Dow hit my 34260 T/P level on Thursday’s 34195 average long position. Subsequently, the Dow sold off to my 34040 second-buy level as emailed to my Platinum Members before again trading higher to my next T/P level at 34170 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 33930/34180 with a now lower 33695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX just missed Friday’s buy range before having a nice 200-point rally off the post 14715 Powell low print. I am still flat. Given how oversold all my technical signals are I will now raise my buy level to 14670/14820 with a higher 14495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14950.
September BUND
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 131.00/131.70 with the same 130.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1882/1897 with the same 1869 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1910.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. My patience has finally paid off with my long 24.20 long position now in profit. I will now raise my T/P level on this 24.20 long position to 25.10. I will now have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 22.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments