U.S. Indices closed mixed on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 seen thanks to Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings beat when reported on Thursday night, while the SPX also finished green. Both the Dow and Russell 2000 lagged, however. Trade uncertainties remain, although there were mixed messages on Friday. Bloomberg reported China is said to be considering exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase, while Caijing noted how several tech companies confirmed that eight tariff codes related to semiconductors and integrated circuits are now exempt from additional tariffs. There was further pushback from China, stating they are not having talks on tariffs with the US, and it is not familiar with the specifics of tariff exemptions. President Trump claimed he spoke to China’s President Xi, but this was once again denied by China, as well as sources from Washington and Beijing to the Financial Times. During trade, Trump said that he will not drop China tariffs unless they give the US something, adding that another tariff pause is unlikely. Despite the mixed messages, the risk tone was a positive one with gains in the aforementioned indices helping crude prices to settle in the green. T-notes continued to grind higher as the trade uncertainty continued to mount with T-notes extending their move off the mid-April lows. Gold was sold amid higher equity prices but the yellow metal ended the session off its lows, around USD 3,300/oz. The Dollar was ultimately flat, with underperformance in the Japanese Yen ahead of this week’s Bank of Japan Meeting. The data highlight saw the final University of Michigan revised up from the preliminary thanks to an improvement in current conditions. There was no Fed speak on Friday, but the Wall Street Journal’s Timiraos gave some clarity on Fed’s Hammack comment on Thursday that hinted at a June cut. The Fed watcher downplayed the signal, stating she made clear she was talking about any number of points in the future, not just June, noting the word IF was doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised up to see the headline at 52.2, above the prior and expected 50.8. Looking into the report, expectations also beat at 47.3, despite expectations for a downward revision to 47.1 from 47.2. However, the primary cause for the increase was the rise in current conditions to 59.8 from 56.5, despite expectations for this to be left unchanged. Looking into the April report, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead”. On employment, it said labour market expectations “remained bleak”. It also highlights that “consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warning signs perceived by consumers”. On inflation, One Year consumer expectations eased to 6.5% from 6.7% in the preliminary reading while the Five Year was maintained at 4.4%. Note, that a Fed study was released on Thursday, suggesting what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing post-pandemic. It highlights how this makes consumer sentiment surveys on their own a weaker indicator of future consumer behaviour and the health of US consumers. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.37% while Gold was soft, ending Friday with a loss of 0.4% following another volatile trading session.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 7440 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.74% higher at a price of 5525.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 20 points higher for a 0.05% gain at a price of 40,113.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.14% higher at a price of 19,432.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.35% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.2% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.90% higher at a price of 35,705.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.31% higher at $1.1364.
The British Pound closed 0.41% higher at 1.3314.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $143.66.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 4.48%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.37% higher at $63.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% lower at $3319.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. At 3.30 pm we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Finally, we have a six-month T-Bill auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P hit a low last Monday at 5100 before turning around and close Friday 425 Handles higher at a price of 5525. In my opinion (apart from an overdue bounce technically) there is no reason to chase this rally from here. The McClellan Oscillator closed at +223 on Friday, following Thursday’s +243 print. History tells us not to chase prices higher when the MO is close to a reading of +250. Remember, no tariffs has been agreed with any country so far and the risk/reward is for the market to trade lower over the coming weeks. The S&P has resistance from 5560/5590 where I will be a strong seller with a ‘5625 Closing Stop’. The S&P has short -term support from 5380/5410. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 5355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5515. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5452. If any of these views change, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 1.1450/1.1550 with a higher 1.1635 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1360. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 99.30 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 99.95 T/P level. I will look to add to this position on any further move lower to 98.50 while leaving my 97.65 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell Index. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1790/1870 with the same 1735 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1945. I still do not want to be short the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
I am still short the FTSE at an average rate of 8360 with the same 8475 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 8325. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow lagged both the S&P and NASDAQ on Friday and I am still flat as the market never came close to Thursday’s sell range. With the McClellan Oscillator close to overbought, I will continue to be a seller of the Dow on any further rally to 40500/40800 with the same 41105 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 40190.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat as the NDX never came close to Thursday’s buy range. Given the number of negative divergences in the NASDAQ following last week’s aggressive rally I will now look to sell the NDX on any further rally. The NDX has short-term resistance from 19650/19850 where I will be a seller with a 20005 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19530. The NDX has short-term support from 18600/18800. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 18375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19030.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range over the past two trading sessions and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 132.60/133.60 with the same 134.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 131.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: The volatility in Gold is insane. Having hit a new all-time high on Monday at $3500, the market is now below $3300. Gold has short-term support from 3180/3210 where I will be a small buyer with a 3165 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3260. I still do not want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Silver is trading slightly lower at a price of 33.05 this morning. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 31.50/32.50 while leaving my 29.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 33.30.
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