WE ARE EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH THE WEBSITE TODAY SO WE HAVE INCLUDED THE FULL TRANSCRIPT OF TODAY’S UPDATE BELOW. APOLOGIES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE BUT WE WILL POST THE UPDATE TO THE SITE AS SOON AS OUR INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDER HAS RESOLVED IT’S SERVICE ISSUE. APOLOGIES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.
Overview
US Equity markets ended weaker on Friday, having opened strongly, with the NASDAQ particularly weak led by Healthcare and Technology. We had a number of Fed speakers giving their opinions and these speeches were largely anticipated in the wake of the moves engendered by the FOMC’s still upbeat economic forecast. James Bullard was the only one to directly reference Fed Chair, Janet Yellen’s, ‘6 months comments’ for a possible first tightening in the Fed Funds Rate saying that these 6-month comments were in line with market surveys. The normally hawkish Dallas fed President Richard Fisher remarked there could be a considerable period of time between the end of the asset buying and the start of tightening but refused to put a time-frame on it other than to say that rates would rise at the right time.
Kocherlakota, the uber-dovish dissenter, said he would have preferred to see a commitment to keep rates low until Unemployment falls below 5.5%.
This morning China’s PMI weakened for a fifth straight month, coming in at 48.1 versus 48.5 in February but despite this weaker data the markets are opening stronger this morning.
This morning on the economic front we have German and Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing/Services which will be closely watched by the markets. We have no data of note from the UK or the US due today.
S&P 500
After I posted on Friday the market traded up to 1875 and after a sell-off I was able to cover this position at 1868. The S&P then traded down to my 1861 but level and the market fell into the close on nervousness in the Ukraine and stopped me out at 1857.
When the market reopened last night, the Ukraine situation had stabilised and as a result I bought the S&P at 1859 with an 1855 stop. My only interest today in selling the market is on a rally to 1876-1881 with an 1884 stop which corresponds to the top of the Bollinger Band and Williams Index.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow also worked very well on Friday as very late in the trading session it traded down to my 16290 buy level and after a nice rally this morning I have been able to cover this position at 16340 and I am now flat. Today I will again be a small buyer on any dip to 16240/16280 with a 16210 stop. I still do not want to be short at this time.
June BUND
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip to 141.90/142.15 with the same 142.30 stop. I will also be a reasonable seller on any rally back to 142.80/143.00 with a 143.25 stop.
Euro/USD
The Euro has now held key support at 1.3760 for the third straight day after last Wednesday’s dramatic sell-off. I am still flat but today I will be a small buyer on any dip to 1.3760/1.3780 with a 1.3740 stop. A break and close below 1.3740 will be very bearish and will then see me start to look to go short this market.
US Dollar Index
No change as I am still long from two weeks ago at 79.45. I will leave my stop the same at 79.95 and if I am stopped out I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 79.60 with a 79.30 stop. A break and close over 80.60 will be very constructive and opens up a possible test of the next key resistance at 81.50.
June DAX
The Dax plan worked well on Friday as the market traded down to my 9305 buy level near the close and after a nice rally this morning I have been able to cover this position at 9380 and I am now flat. Today I will still be a small buyer on any dip to 9270/9300 with a 9240 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time especially as the market managed to close over the key 9275 support level last Friday.
June FTSE
Late on Friday the FTSE traded down to my 6470 buy level. I am still long in small size and I will leave my stop the same at 6440.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is opening lower this morning and is approaching the key 1310/1320 support zone which is also at the bottom of the Bollinger Band and Williams Index. Today I will lower my buy level to 1310/1318 with a 1305 stop. Gold is now trading over $70 lower than this time last week.
Silver Rolling Contract
I was lucky on Friday with my long 20.20 Silver position as after a nice rally after I posted I was able to cover this position at 20.50 and I am now flat. Silver is also trading heavy this morning and is now back approaching the key 19.70/20.10 support zone. Today I will be a small buyer on any further dip to 19.70/19.90 with a 19.45 stop.
Recent Comments