U.S. Indexes closed lower on Friday, amid credit risk and geopolitical tensions, but pared weakness into the close well off earlier troughs. Sectors were mixed, but Financials were the clear laggard as private credit fears continue to linger after the collapse of MFS earlier in the week exposed several US financials, including Wells Fargo, Apollo, and Jefferies. The ongoing private credit concerns may be prompting a rotation out of corporate credit and into safer government debt, underpinning US Treasuries, which saw gains across the curve as Fed rate cut bets were eased for 2026. Energy was the sectorial gainer and buoyed by the strength in WTI and Brent as US/Iran concerns remain ever-present and tensions rise on whether the US is going to strike Iran. Since the talks yesterday, Oman and Iran said talks were positive but in the most recent comments, Trump said he has not made a decision on Iran but is not happy with how they negotiate. As we know this view did not last given the joint invasion of Iran by both the U.S. and Isreal on Saturday morning. As a result the Iranian leader Khamenei was killed. In the FX space, the Swiss Franc outperformed on haven demand, alongside higher gold prices, although the Japanese Yen’s gains were contained perhaps by the recent nominations put forth for the Bank of Japan board, which are viewed as meaning looser policy in the short term. On the data footing, US PPI was much hotter than expected across the board, but despite the very hot core metrics, inflation fears were not reignited and perhaps due to the generally softer PCE components within the report. Into the weekend, participants will keep an eye on any geopolitical developments ahead of the US payrolls report next Friday. PPI: Overall, the headline and core metrics were hotter than expected in January. The headline M/M rose 0.5%, above the 0.3% forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.4%. The Y/Y rose 2.9%, easing from the prior 3.0% but hotter than the 2.6% forecast. The core metrics surged 0.8% M/M above the 0.3% forecast and prior 0.6%, while the Y/Y rose 3.6% up from the prior 3.3% and forecast of 3.0%. Despite the very hot core metrics, inflation fears were not reignited. This is perhaps due to the generally softer PCE components within the report. Portfolio management and domestic air passenger transport fees eased, while in healthcare, physician care costs rose, but others were little changed or eased – hospital outpatient care declined 0.86% from the prior 0.02%. Regarding the large upside, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that this was driven by a 2.5% jump in trade services prices, unwinding the squeeze in H2 of 2025. The desk notes that PPI and CPI data indicate the Core PCE deflator rose 0.27% in January, and 2.9% Y/Y from the 3.0% in December. Pantheon adds that “Looking ahead, inflation is likely to be broadly unchanged over the next four months” and expects core PCE to drop sharply from June, ending the year marginally above the 2% target, helping Warsh make the case immediately for looser policy. Elsewhere, Oil surged ending Friday’s session with a gain of 3.36% while geopolitical concerns saw Gold close 2% higher.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 390 points on the first trading session for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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