U.S. Indices ended the day very rangebound on Friday, ahead of the long US weekend due to Martin Luther King Day on Monday. Sectors were mixed, with Real Estate sitting top of the pile with Health lagging, amid a lack of tier 1 US data. While data and Fed speak was fairly light, the Dollar saw upside and Treasuries sold after President Trump suggested he will keep Hassett as NEC Director and will not be his choice his Fed Chair. Following the indication from Trump, T-Notes tumbled to lows across the curve, given Hassett is seen as the most dovish candidate, and less friendly for Fed-independence; traders pulled back Fed rate cut bets. Elsewhere on the matter, FBN reported that those inside the interview with Rick Rieder for Fed chair saw it as a positive that he was the only candidate with no prior Federal Reserve experience. Markets are largely favouring former Fed Governor Warsh as the next Fed Chair now, with Kalshi assigning Warsh’s probability at 59%. Rieder still lags at 10%, however. Overall, the Dollar was flat with the Japanese Yen outperforming after Bank of Japan sources and the latest jawboning. The crude complex was fairly maintained in what has been a busy week in geopolitics, and while energy settled firmer, benchmarks pared some gains after Trump said he greatly respects the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Spot silver was weighed on by updates from China (adjusted trading limits for silver futures), while spot gold also saw losses, albeit not to the same magnitude. Fed speak came via Fed dove Bowman, who noted the Fed should not signal a pause in rate cut campaign, while Jefferson does not want to prejudge January rate-setting decision and Fed rate cuts since 2024 have brought policy rate into range consistent with neutral; note, Fed goes into blackout this evening ahead of the aforementioned FOMC confab. Fed Governor Bowman continued to show her dove stance. She believes the Fed should be ready to cut rates again due to job market risks, noting the Fed should not signal a pause in the rate cut campaign. She added that the risks to the Fed’s mandate are asymmetric, and the Fed should be ready to cut again if the labour market needs. In her view, monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and she notes that policy should be forward looking. She sees solid growth and lower inflation, which should stabilise the labour market, noting the economy has been resilient. However, she is concerned about labour market fragility, stressing policy should be focussed on supporting the jobs market. She acknowledged the Fed has made considerable progress on lowering inflation, noting underlying inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target. She also noted that inflation pressures are easing as tariff impact abates. Fed Member Jefferson does not want to prejudge January rate-setting decision. He believes that some upside risks remain but expects inflation to return to its path back to 2%. Jefferson views inflation as somewhat elevated, with the climb in core goods prices inconsistent with the return to 2% inflation. He is cautiously optimistic for 2026, though faces risks to both employment and price stability goals. The Governor expects 2% economic growth in the near term and the unemployment rate to hold steady. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.4% while Gold ended Friday’s volatile session flat.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 560 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2617 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 6940.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points lower for a 0.17% loss at a price of 49,359.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% lower at a price of 25,529.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.65% lower at a price of 53,583.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% higher.
The Euro closed 0.25% lower at $1.1597.
The British Pound closed 0.27% lower at $1.3380.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.12% closing at $158.12
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points higher at 4.40%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.85%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher at 4.23%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.44% higher at $59.34 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $4596.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. With U.S. Markets closed the only other data of note is Canadian CPI which will be released at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Treasury rates moved notably higher Friday afternoon, with the most pronounced pressure concentrated in the five-, seven-, and ten-year sectors, as the ten-year yield broke out of the trading channel it had held since mid-December. The move appeared to coincide more with renewed attention on the U.S. Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process, particularly discussions about restructuring the seven-year note auction calendar, than with speculation about potential Federal Reserve leadership changes. Seven-year yields rose by more than five basis points, compared with a three-basis-point increase in the two-year, suggesting the move was driven more by issuance considerations than front-end policy expectations. This rate breakout occurred against a backdrop of historically compressed bond and equity volatility, with realised volatility in long-duration Treasurys near levels last seen in 2019. If yields continue to rise and volatility expands, implied volatility across bonds—and potentially equities and credit—would likely rise as well, increasing the risk that the current period of sideways consolidation in equities gives way to more persistent choppiness. Regardless of motivation, the technical significance lies in the ten-year yield breaking out of its trading range that had been intact since mid-December. That breakout opens the possibility for the ten-year yield to move toward 4.30–4.35. The seven-year chart also shows a clear breakout, with potential to move back toward 4.10–4.20. Similar behavior was evident in the five-year, while the thirty-year lagged, reinforcing the idea that the move was concentrated in the belly of the curve rather than driven by policy expectations. The two-year rose only three basis points, further supporting that interpretation. Turning to equities, the S&P 500 continues to consolidate within a narrowing range that resembles a rising wedge or parallelogram formation, with limited room remaining. Similar patterns appear in the NASDAQ 100 and the Technology Select Sector SPDR. In XLK, price action has repeatedly failed to break above or below the range, while closing prices remain within the channel, suggesting compression is nearing an endpoint. This compression has coincided with suppressed volatility across both equity and bond markets. Friday’s rate move may mark the beginning of that compression unwinding, with implications for equities in the coming sessions. In rates, the two-year yield—downtrending since May 2024—is approaching a break of its downtrend line. Momentum indicators such as RSI have turned higher, hinting at a possible shift. A sustained rise in the two-year would imply that markets are increasingly pricing out future rate cuts. Fed Funds Futures reinforce this view. December 2026 contracts have risen steadily since mid-October, reflecting roughly 50 basis points of rate cuts being removed from pricing. Similar momentum shifts are visible in 2027 contracts, which appear to be forming an ascending triangle. Even 2028 contracts show higher lows, suggesting longer-term expectations may be drifting higher. Taken together, these signals suggest the current sideways, choppy environment is unlikely to resolve quickly. With rates rising, volatility compressed, and issuance questions looming ahead of the February refunding announcement, near-term market dynamics warrant close attention. My S&P plan worked well as the market rose to my 6965 sell level before trading lower to my 6946 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the S&P is trading 60 Handles lower than Friday’s close following the announcement over the weekend that Trump is imposing a 10% tariff on eight European Countries, effective February 1st, over Greenland. The tariff will be increased to 25% on June 1st, unless a deal is reached for the purchase of Greenland. In response the EU is preparing EUR 93 BILLION of tariffs on the U.S. or restrict American Companies from the European Market as EU leaders prepare to meet on Thursday. The S&P has short-term support from 6840/6860 where I will be a small buyer with a 6825 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will again be a seller from 6950/6975 with a lower 7001 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6888. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6932.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the Euro continues to trade lower, having made a series of lower highs over the past two weeks. My own view is the Euro will continue to move lower towards the key 1.1250 support level. Today, I will lower my sell level to 1.1670/1.1740 with a lower 1.18-5 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1610.
Dollar Index
Overnight the Dollar traded lower to my 99.10 buy level. I am still long with the same 99.60 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.30 while leaving my 97.65 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell just fell shy of my 2700 initial sell level and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 2680/2750 with the same 2805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2630. Given how overbought the Russell is trading at this time, I have no interest in being long the market.
FTSE 100
I am still short the FTSE from last week at an average rate of 10165. I will leave my 10130 T/P level unchanged while lowering my ‘Closing Stop’ to 10275. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well. The Dow rallied to my 49520-sell level before selling off to my revised 49340 and I am now flat. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 49100. I have no interest in chasing the Dow lower given the appetite to buy the dip. This morning the Dow is trading at a price of 48950 as I go to press. The Dow has short-term support from 48500/48750 where I will be a small buyer with a 48295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49030. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded higher to my 25740-sell level before trading lower to my 25590 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 25650/25850 with a lower 26005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25490. The NDX has short-term support from 24850/25050 where I will be a buyer with a 24695 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25230.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat as the Bund continues to trade in very narrow ranges. Despite the higher PPI print on Wednesday the Bund followed Treasury prices higher. Remember a market that cannot sell-off on bad news has to be respected. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 126.80/127.50 with a lower 126.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.10. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
The two-way volatility in Silver has increased dramatically over the past two weeks. This morning Silver is trading 4% higher at $94. Silver has short-term resistance from 96.00/98.00 where I will be a small buyer with a 100.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 93.80.
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