With the US Market closed for the President’s Day Holiday and no substantial events or data to key off, markets have meandered over the last 24 hours. Continental European Equities started weak but then recovered during the day to close just in the black. The FTSE started down and ended the day in the red held down by mining shares on the back of weak base metals. The Euro-Zone Trade Balance showed that exports fell by 1.8%, a sign that the higher Euro is dampening activity. Following on from the G20 statement on currencies over the weekend, President Dragi urged officials to be disciplined when talking about currencies noting that the Euro was around its long term averages. Most G10 currencies are little changed with the Canadian Dollar the worst performer after December Manufacturing Sales fell 2.1% after a rise of 1.9% the previous month.
This morning at 10.00 am we have the very important German ZEW Survey which is expected to come in at 35 versus 31.5 last month. The only data of note due in the US is the NAHB Housing Market Index.
March S&P 500
No change from yesterday with the market closed for the Presidents Day Holiday. I am a buyer from 1510/1513 with a 1508 stop and I am still a seller the first time we test the 1527/1532 with a 1535 stop. I will be more aggressive on the sell side if we test this 1530 level. Remember we need a sell extreme to break this uptrend and we just have to be patient and let the market tell us when its is ready to fall.
Euro/USD
This morning I will raise my buy level to 1.3310/1.3330 with a 1.3280 stop. I am only going to buy in small as we have the important ZEW data due at 10.00am. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time and I am only interested in trading the Euro from the long side.
March DAX
The Dax just hit my 7640 take profit level this morning from my 7575 long position from late Friday, I am flat and I am going to stay this way until the ZEW Survey is out of the way. If the survey is worse than expected I will look reset my long position on any dip to 7570/7590 in small with a 7550 stop. Given how the Dax has under-performed versus the other main Indices this year I do not want to be short as any surprises from here will be on the top side.
March FTSE
I am still alive but only barely as the FTSE just missed my stop at 6272. We are now back over 6300 as I write this commentary and I will leave my stop the same and I will still look to take profit in front of 6320. If the FTSE continues to rally from here I will be a seller from 6340/6365 with a 6380 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long from 1607 with the same 1595 stop. I will look to take profit on any rally to 1625/1630. If I manage to take profit and Gold subsequently drops I will look to go long again from 1590/1600 with a 1582 stop.
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