U.S Equity Markets closed lower on Friday after a relentless sell-programme hit the Futures Markets on Friday morning. We did not have the usual Friday VIX crush, as the VIX surged, closing higher by 7.5%. Higher Treasury Yields saw the NASDAQ 100 lead the declines, closing lower by 1.75%. SoftBank-owned chipmaker Arm (ARM) had a successful debut on the Nasdaq Composite Index, surging about 20 % on Friday. The company raised $4.87 billion, making it the largest initial public offering (“IPO”) of the year. Arm sold 95.5 million American depositary shares at the top of its price range, and the shares opened well above their IPO price, at $56.10 per share. This brings the company’s valuation to $62 billion. Arm’s debut is a big win for SoftBank, especially as the bank attempted to sell the company to Nvidia (NVDA) for $40 billion in 2020. The successful IPO may instil confidence in other tech startups and companies planning to go public in the U.S., and it could awaken the sleepy IPO market we have seen so far this year. The United Auto Workers (“UAW”) union began an unprecedented and targeted strike at Detroit’s Big Three automakers – General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), and Stellantis (STLA). The current labour contract expired at its midnight deadline, resulting in an organised walkout among thousands of workers at the big three Detroit automakers. The UAW’s primary concerns are pay raises, cost-of-living adjustments, pensions for newer workers, and job security at select factories. While the goal is not an initial all-out stoppage, the union plans to disrupt operations while it conserves its $850 million strike fund. The White House has closely monitored the situation and is aware that a strike could raise auto prices, significantly harm suppliers, and impact the overall economy. European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) raised its interest rate to 4% on Thursday, marking the 10th consecutive increase. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is uncertain whether it has reached its peak of monetary tightening, but she suggested that the focus may shift toward the duration of the tightening cycle. While the market anticipated this hike, the uncertainty of the ECB’s direction has led to a drop in the Euro and a rally in bonds. The situation remains challenging for the central bank as it struggles to deal with economic headwinds and support price stability. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve-requirement ratio for most banks to foster lending capacity and support government spending. The move should facilitate fiscal stimulus, especially in the form of local government bonds. Large-scale government bond issuance can lead to ample bank liquidity, and the cut in reserve requirements is expected to free up between $55 billion and $69 billion. While China’s economic recovery has slowed, the government may wait for the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions before taking any additional action. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.69% higher while weaker Equity Markets saw Gold close 0.8% higher.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 290 points on Friday and is now ahead by 276 points for September, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.22% lower at a price of 4451.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 288 points lower for a 0.83% loss at a price of 34,618.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.75% lower at a price of 15,202.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1,1% higher at a price of 33,533.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0660.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 123.82.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $147.85.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher at 2.67%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 4.37%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.33%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.69% higher at $90.97 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $1923.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Bundesbank Monthly Report at 11.00 am. The only other data of note is the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Wrong! There is no doubt that the last four months have been the most challenging period for my Platinum Service since I started writing this Daily Commentary over 10 years ago. We are seeing so many false break outs on the charts both to the upside and downside causing these difficult market conditions. It seems that every breakout sees no follow-through just like Friday. After hitting a morning high on Friday at 4516 we saw a relentless sell-programme, driving the S&P nearly 70 Handles lower. This aggressive sell-off saw the S&P. loose the 5 EMA, 50 MA, the 20 MA and the Weekly 5 EMA. Technically, there is nothing pretty about that, but the question of course is how much of this sell-off was driven by such a huge OPEX programme. Meanwhile Europe did not care as European Indexes closed higher. I find it very hard to be short when the 14-Day RSI for the $BPSPX closed at 25 on Friday, while the $NYSI is maximum oversold. History tells us that when we have both of these scenarios an aggressive rally ensues. I bought the S&P at an average rate of 4488 on Friday before getting stopped at 4459 and I am now flat. The S&P has strong support at 4440. I will be a small buyer from 4427/4442 with a 4415 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4458. I still have no interest in being short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long from last Thursday at an average rate of 106.70 with the same 107.20 T/P level. So far, the May low at 1.0635 is holding. I will leave my 1.0585 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still short at an average rate of 105.00. This morning, the Dollar is trading at 105.26. I will leave my 105.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 104.75. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market missed Friday’s buy range despite the aggressive sell-off in tech stocks. As I am now long both the Dow and NDX, I will now lower my DAX buy level to 15690/15760 with a lower 15595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE led the European Indexes on Friday, ignoring the sell-off in the American Markets. This move higher saw the FTSE close over its 200-Day Moving Average for the first time since May. The FTSE has strong support from 7580/7650. I will now lower my buy level to this area where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 7525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow sold off to Friday’s buy range. As I was already long both the NDX and S&P, I waited to buy the Dow which I did at a price of 34680. I will add to this position at 34440 with a now lower 34295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 34820. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Treasury Yields closing at their highest level since 2007 (4.33%) saw the NDX lead Friday’s declines, closing lower by a hefty 1.75%. This move lower saw my second buy level at 15333 triggered for a now 15398 average long position. I had emailed my Platinum Members to cancel any stop on this position. Earlier, the NDX made a Friday morning high at 15522 before a relentless sell-programme hit, driving the market 300 points lower. We are now in the seasonally weakest period of the year where literally one analyst after another is looking for lower prices. The big surprise from here would be if the market goes against this trend and traded higher. The NDX has support below at 15110 where I will add to my existing position. I will now lower my T/P level to 15450. I will have no stop on this position. If this view changes I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund reversed most of last week’s gains on Friday. This move lower saw my buy range triggered for a now 130.40 long position. I will add to this trade at 129.70 while leaving my 129.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 130.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied on Friday once the U.S. Equity Markets came under pressure. I am still flat as Gold never came close to my buy range. This morning, Gold is trading at 1929 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 1898/1913 with a higher 1885 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 24.05. Silver is trading higher at 23.20 this morning which is a surprise given the strength of the Dollar. Buying the dip has worked almost every time in Silver over the past two years. However, just like Gold finding strong resistance from 1960/2000, Silver is seeing a lot of selling between 24.00 and 25.00. I will leave my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged at 21.95. If Silver drops from here, I will come back with a new level to add to my existing long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
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