U.S. Indices closed mixed following a volatile trading that witnessed plenty of two-way price action. Equity futures started the day in the red with a lot of weakness in the tech sector, once again following a soft handover from Asia into Europe, with European indices closing well in the red. Pressure was attributed to further AI valuation concerns with Baidu (BIDU) tumbling overnight after its latest AI model failed to impress investors. However, a revival was seen in the risk tone after the US open, taking global indices off lows. Europe still closed red, but the US managed to pare the majority of its losses with both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 closing flat, while the Russell outperformed, but the Dow and RSP lagged. Sectors were predominantly lower, with outperformance seen in Energy, Tech and Real Estate. Elsewhere, markets broadly tracked the risk tone with T-notes rallying when it was risk off, but paring the upside as sentiment improved. The Dollar was flat with the Yen initially rallying but to close the week flat around 154.50 after hitting a trough earlier of 153.63. The Swiss Franc also pared initial gains. NZD was the clear outperformer as AUD/NZD gave back some of its recent run higher. The Pound was the focus after the Chancellor U-turned on income tax hikes thanks to improved forecasts, which saw Sterling lower, hitting a low of 1.3109 but now has pared to 1.3165 at pixel time. Gilts remained pressured throughout UK trade. Energy prices were bid amid continued attacks on Russian oil and Hormuz tanker troubles. We have started to get some of the data released, with the BLS scheduling the September NFP for Thursday, 20th November 2025. Fed Member Schmid the Fed hawk and dissenter said the rationale for October dissent continues to guide him as he heads towards December, noting policy is modestly restrictive, which is where it should be. On the inflationary footing, he remarked that further rate cuts won’t patch job market cracks and could do damage to inflation. Kansas City President noted concerns on inflation ‘much broader’ than tariffs alone, and he prefers to focus on the overall inflation rate when setting policy; no room to be complacent on inflation expectations. Schmid, on the balance sheet, supported the decision to stop shrinking it, saying the Fed could lower the rate paid on reserves, ease access to the standing repo facility to support a smaller Fed balance sheet and ease liquidity. Schmid concluded the central bank could also shift its balance sheet portfolio to short-duration securities. Logan, the Dallas Fed President, who argued to hold rates at the October meeting, said it would be hard to support another rate cut at the December meeting. Logan says she would need to see convincing evidence of inflation coming down, or the labour market worsening, to support such a decision. Similar to Schmid (2025 voter), Logan said her inflation concerns are not just about tariffs, but she is rather focused on persistent underlying inflation. Logan noted the labour market is cooling and is roughly balanced, with risks looking more balanced on the dual mandate than in September. She described the labour market as gradually cooling, which is appropriate amid the fight against inflation, and further argued that it is not appropriate to deliver more pre-emptive insurance to the labour market via a rate cut. Logan views a modestly restrictive policy as appropriate and sees PCE inflation at ~2.9% at year-end end. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.39% while profit-taking saw Gold end Friday with a loss of 1.5%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 547 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2989 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 6734.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 309 points lower for a 0.65% loss at a price of 47,147.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% higher at a price of 25,008.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.01% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.77% lower at a price of 50,376.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.12% higher.
The Euro closed 0.15% higher at $1.1620.
The British Pound closed 0.28% higher at $1.3171.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.27% closing at $154.33
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 18 basis points higher at 4.58%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.72%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 4.14%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.39% higher at $60.09 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.5% lower at $4083.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the EU Economic Forecasts at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Williams, Jefferson and Kashkari at 2.00 pm, 2.30 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Like everyone else I keep wondering when this asset bubble is going to burst. Investors are now paying 7.85 times the book value for the S&P 400 Industrial Companies for a 1.16% annual dividend yield from companies in the S&P 500 Composite Index. Meanwhile risk free T-Bills are paying three times that amount. Clearly, there is no income reason to buy stocks; the only reason to buy them is a belief that other investors will bid prices even higher than they already are. Options trading among retail investors soared in October to twice what it had been in previous bull-markets months. Retail traders are not the only fools in the game. Companies have been buying back their own stock at a record rate as I mentioned last week to the tune of $8 billion per day. It is interesting that when stock prices were on their lows in 2020 they did not buy and now that prices are at record highs they are buying at a record pace. Company managers are herding just as much as everyone else. This coming week will be a busy one with the return of economic data, three Treasury settlement dates, and, of course, NVIDIA’s earnings. All of this will likely mean elevated levels of implied volatility for most of the week, especially Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of NVIDIA’s results on Wednesday after the close and the U.S. jobs report on Thursday at 1.30 pm. It could set up a somewhat choppy start to the week, probably a bit different from what we have seen at the start of the past couple of weeks. The last 10 Monday’s have all ended positively for the S&P. Last Friday was a strange trading session, with implied volatility rising sharply in the pre-market as Bitcoin sold off by about 5%. That pushed the S&P 500 down roughly 1.25% at the open, but implied volatility then declined sharply throughout the morning, lifting the S&P 500. We saw a bit of a choppy close, with the Index essentially finishing the day flat after recovering the morning losses and helping implied volatility reset to much lower levels than where it started. The odds that NVIDIA actually falls following its results are quite high. Right now, options positioning is extremely bullish, with the market pricing in about a 7% post-earnings move. There is a massive amount of call gamma built up at the $200 strike, with even more above that. Market maker positioning is currently positive, meaning the stock is in positive gamma — so market makers will generally be sellers on moves higher and buyers on dips, at least until the stock falls below the zero-gamma level, which appears to be somewhere between $180 and $185. Once that level is broken, market makers would flip to sellers. Additionally, large delta positioning means there are many call owners, and once implied volatility starts to decline, those calls are likely to lose premium quickly. That could generate significant selling pressure on the stock after earnings, even if NVIDIA beats estimates, as it normally does, by $2 billion to $3 billion. While the S&P just missed Thursday’s initial 6885 sell level the market did sell-off, trading the whole of my buy range for a 6763 average long position. Friday morning’s 6650 low was met by strong buying enabling me to cover this long position at my revised 6765 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The S&P has short-term support from 6680/6700 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 6659 ‘Closing Stop’. Given the fact that so many of my technical signals are oversold I no longer want to be a seller of the S&P at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6732.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied to my 1.1655 sell level before trading lower to my revised 1.1618 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1670/1.1740 with the same 1.1805 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1335 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1540. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1610.
Dollar Index
The weakness in the Dollar saw the market hit my 99.00 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 99.50 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.40 while leaving my 97.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Friday’s sell-off saw the Russell hit my buy range for a now 2390 long position. The Russell is trading below the bottom of its Daily Bollinger Band following an 8% fall over the past few weeks. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2340 while leaving my 2295 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 2435. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The tax u-turn by Rachel Reeves on Friday saw both the Gilt and FSTE markets tank. The FTSE hit a low at 9610 – 300 points lower from where I marked prices on Thursday morning. This move lower saw my 9850 T/P level triggered on my latest 9910 short position and I am now flat. Given the size of Friday’s Red Candle I do not want to chase the market lower as I want to see how the FTSE performs today. The FTSE has short-term support from 9500/9580 where I will be a small buyer with a 9435 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9640.
Dow Rolling Contract
As we know timing is everything in markets. Having been stopped out of my latest short position on Wednesday at 48205 the Dow subsequently fell 1500 points before having a small rally off Friday’s lows into the close and I am still flat. I am going to stay flat the Dow as I want to see how the market reacts today given the fact that Bitcoin is under pressure as I go to post. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Unfortunately, the NDX just fell shy of Thursday’s sell range before falling over 1000 points. Short covering on Friday saw the NDX end the session unchanged. The NDX has support from 24580/24730 where I will be a small buyer with a 24395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my NDX sell level to 25350/25500 with a lower 25655 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24900. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25210.
December BUND
The aggressive sell-off in the Gilt market on Friday saw the Bund trade lower to my second buy level of 129.00 for a now 129.50 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 129.80 while leaving my 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market sold off to my 4035-buy level before rallying to my 4073 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite Friday’s aggressive sell-off Gold is still overbought following its massive run higher this year. Gold has support below from 3890/3910 where I will be a strong buyer with a 3869 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I learnt my lesson in trying to short Gold last month and for now I will wait to see if my buy range gets triggered this week. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3948.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 50.80 average long position before rallying to my revised 51.30 T/P level and I am now flat. The price action on Friday was decisively bearish following an 8% fall from its overnight high at 54 before falling 400 points. This is one of the largest key day reversals in Silver in many years. Silver has support below from 47.50/48.50 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 45.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49.70.
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