The Dow led Friday’s declines following better earnings from JP Morgan. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported that its revenue reached a record high in the second quarter, driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. The company reported $41.3 billion in revenue, surpassing analysts’ expectations. The record-breaking revenue included $21.8 billion in net interest income. JPMorgan also raised its guidance for net interest income, excluding its trading business, to $87 billion for the full year, up from its previous forecast of $84 billion. The strong performance reflects the bank’s ability to capitalise on the favourable interest rate environment. BlackRock (BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, reported an increase in its assets under management (“AUM”) to $9.4 trillion as the stock market rallied and investors allocated funds to ETFs and cash-management products. The firm disclosed that net flows into its funds amounted to $80 billion for the second quarter. Additionally, investors withdrew $4.3 billion from equity products, contrary to expectations of inflows. Overall, BlackRock’s AUM growth reflects ongoing investor interest in ETFs and cash management in the current rate environment Coinbase (COIN) experienced a significant surge in its shares, rising nearly 25% on Thursday. This surge came because of a landmark legal victory in a closely watched lawsuit involving Ripple Labs – a blockchain company – which said that Ripple Labs did not violate federal securities law by selling its XRP token on public exchanges. The larger cryptocurrency industry saw this as a major bellwether case and investors believe this could provide some tailwinds to an industry that has struggled to navigate a plethora of legal troubles in recent months. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, known for advocating aggressive interest-rate hikes to combat inflation, has resigned from his position after 15 years. Bullard will be leaving the bank and will assume the role of the inaugural dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. School of Business at Purdue University. Bullard has been vocal in his calls for the Fed to take more assertive measures to address the surging inflation, often disagreeing with the view that pricing pressures were transitory and advocating for more aggressive policy. European Markets closed lower led by the DAX which reversed morning gains following the renewed strength of the Euro. In Asia, The Chinese Yuan is experiencing a rebound after a period of weakness, driven by China’s efforts to safeguard economic growth and the nearing end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy. The currency saw a second consecutive week of gains, following a decline of over 5% against the U.S. dollar in the previous quarter. Confidence in the Yuan is growing as expectations increase that Beijing will prevent further depreciation in the country’s economy, considering the potential risks of financial instability and high youth unemployment. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the government of Australia has decided not to reappoint Philip Lowe as the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is expected to announce Lowe’s replacement on Friday after a Cabinet meeting. The three main contenders for the position are Deputy Governor Michele Bullock, Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy, and Finance Department Secretary Jenny Wilkinson. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1% while Gold again closed flat.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points on Friday and is now down 193 points for July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.10% lower at a price of 4505.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 113 points higher for a 0.33% gain at a price of 34,509.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.04% lower at a price of 15,065.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.11% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.08% lower at a price of 32,391.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1233.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3098.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $138.55.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.45%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.45%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 3.83%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.0% lower at $75.42 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $1954.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have speeches from ECB Members, Lagarde, Lane and Elderson at 9.15 am, 9.30 am and 1.15 pm respectively. The only other data of note is the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite better-than-expected Bank Earnings, the S&P closed slightly lower on Friday following an extremely quiet trading session. Despite the S&P closing lower, the VIX witnessed its usual Friday crush, closing lower by 2% at a price of 13.34. The main take from last week is the market is becoming an even more bloated with the $BPSPX 14-Day RSI closing at 85 on Friday, while the Fear & Greed Index is still Extreme with an 80 reading. This matters as retracements to the 50 Day Moving Average are common from overbought readings such as we have currently. I am still short the S&P from Thursday at an average rate of 4505. I will now raise my T/P level to 4483. I will now put a ‘’Closing Stop’’ in place at 4531. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still short at 1.1220 with the same 1.1140 T/P level. Given how overbought the Euro is trading I will continue to add to this position at 1.1260 while leaving my 1.1325 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at 99.70 with the same 100.50 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position at 99.10 with the same 98.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX made a high at 16200 on Friday before selling off 180 points to this morning’s 16020 low so far. This move lower enabled me to cover my 16080 average short position at my revised 16045 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 16090/16190 with a higher 16265 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE is opening weaker this morning and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 7290/7350 with the same 7235 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Dow closed higher on Friday, the market is trading heavy following last week’s 1000-point rally. We had a small reversal off Thursday afternoon’s high print which will now act as strong resistance. Today, I will be a small seller from 34600/34850 with a tight 35005 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 34000/34220 with a tight 33895 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX made a new 2023 high at 15725 on Friday before reversing off these highs into the close. This move higher has me short at 15620. I will add to this position at 15760 while leaving my 15905 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unhanged. I have outlined extensively over the past number of weeks why I feel this market is severely overbought led by a few stocks whose valuations make absolutely no sense to me. I will have a 15490 T/P level on this position. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
September BUND
I am still flat. The Bund traded in a narrow range on Friday, closing lower by 30 points. Ahead of Lagarde and Lane speaking this morning I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.10/131.90 with the same 130.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has traded in a narrow range for the past three sessions, and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the market higher leaving my 1918/1933 buy level unchanged with the same 1907 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has continued to push higher since my exit last Thursday, trading at 24.70 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 23.60/24.30 with the same no stop.
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