U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier gains to end a volatile week in the ‘’Red’’ led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed lower by 2.13%. In the early morning, Reuters ran a report suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin said negotiations with Ukraine are seeing positive developments. This stoked optimism that there was a path to ending the conflict, which would remove an overhang for markets. Other diplomatic talks did not give reason for optimism, though. Talks with Iran over a nuclear agreement broke for the weekend with no resolution. The European Union’s representative in the talks said the sides needed a break to overcome a few differences and to reach a deal. Without a deal, Iran won’t be able to boost oil exports and help alleviate the recent price increases for energy. In terms of economic data, Consumer Sentiment came in well below estimates in March, hitting the lowest level since 2011. Inflation remains on everyone’s minds, with survey respondents’ inflation expectations hitting the highest level since 1981. The longer the Russian conflict drags on, markets will remain volatile and sentiment will remain depressed. Tech shares underperformed on Friday, dragged lower by DocuSign’s (DOCU) weaker-than-expected revenue forecasts. The sell-off in DocuSign seemed to confirm investor fears that COVID-era growth was slowing. This added to the recent tech meltdown, pushing the Nasdaq Composite Index lower. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the bank would likely end its asset-purchase plan sooner than expected, increasing the potential for interest-rate hikes this year. The International Monetary Fund said the chances of a Russian debt default have greatly increased as sanctions limit the country’s ability to access its foreign-reserve assets. European Equities saw record outflows of $13.5 billion over the past week, as investors unwind risk exposure due to uncertainty around the Ukraine conflict. In Asia, Japanese household spending figures for January contracted compared with December, as consumers spent less on entertainment, clothing, and schooling. The People’s Bank of China said it would double the allowable trading range for the Russian Ruble versus the Yuan in an attempt to provide stability and liquidity. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the government is concerned by the developments in Ukraine and wants to stop the situation from escalating. South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol said he would look to strengthen ties with the U.S. through supply-chain, economic, and military initiatives. Elsewhere, Oil closed 3% higher as a breakdown in Iran negotiations means the country won’t add to the oil supply anytime soon, while Gold fell 1.2% on Dollar strength.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 255 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2354 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.3% lower at a price of 4204.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 229 points lower for a 0.69% loss at a price of 32,944.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.13% lower at a price of 13,301.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.58% higher at a price of 25,307.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0913.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.3015.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7%, closing at $117.45.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 1.50%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher 2.03%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3% higher at 109.85 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% lower at $1978.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Wholesale Price Index for February, which rose 1.7% versus 2.3% expected. We have no other data of note to be released today on either side of the Atlantic.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P had a wild trading range on Friday, spiking to a high above 4335 shortly before lunch before spending the rest of the session selling off as no one wanted to be long over the weekend. The sell-off accelerated in the last hour of trading, covering the whole of my buy range for a 4220 average long position. Overnight, the S&P rallied, with the market hitting my revised 4236 T/P level and I am now flat. This market is not for the squeamish as we are seeing massive two-way chop ahead of this week’s FOMC Meeting. Interesting, despite Friday’s aggressive sell0ff across the board the VIX only rose 1.72%, closing just above 30 at a price of 30.75. As I mentioned last week, the Fed have never hiked Interest Rates when the VIX is above 30 or have never hiked rates during a crisis. Wednesday’s Statement will take on more significance given the 7.9% CPI print last week. My own view is Powell will try and calm markets and just hike by 0.25%. As long as the S&P can hold the key 4175/4200 support area, I will continue to be a buyer on dips. The S&P has initial support from 4180/4210 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 4159 stop. The S&P has resistance from 4360/4390 where I will be a strong seller with no stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro made a high on Friday at 1.1043, just missing my initial 1.1060 sell level and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1020/1.1070 with a lower 1.1151 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to Friday’s buy level and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 97.90/98.50 with a tight 97.45 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
The DAX surged on Friday, never coming close to my buy range, hitting a rebound high above 14100 before having a small sell-off into the New York close. There is no doubt, last week’s 12500 print was a low of significance given how oversold the DAX got after falling 23% in just three weeks. This morning the DAX is trading at 13850. I will now raise my buy level to 13530/13630 with a wider 13395 stop.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 7090 buy level late Friday, before rallying this morning to my 7145 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 7030/7090 where I will again be a buyer with the same 6975 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow traded in a wide range on Friday, making a high before lunch above 33650 before spending the rest of the session on the defensive, selling off into the close, finishing the day at 32945, just above its 32911 low print. Optimism, that we may be close to a ceasefire in Ukraine has the Dow trading higher at 33200 this morning. The Fed hate volatility and have a difficult task by trying to calm markets ahead of the FOMC Statement on Wednesday and of course the Powell press conference. I am not going to chase the Dow higher from these levels, preferring to wait and buy a flush lower if allowed. The Dow has strong support from 32600/32300 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop. The Dow has strong resistance from 34050/34350 where I will be an aggressive seller, also, with no stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index again closed with a reading of 13 on Friday, which implies ‘’Extreme Fear’’ A reading below 10 will be a strong buy signal for U.S. Indexes.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I was lucky on Friday as the NDX spiked on the positive comment from Putin, allowing me to exit my 13905 long position for a small loss at 13770 and I am still flat. This morning, the NDX is trading over 400 points lower from where I exited this position. The NDX has short-term support from 13000/13150 where I will be a small buyer with a 12895 stop. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
June BUND
Despite my concerns, the BUND traded in a narrow range on Friday, and I am still flat. Even though, 10-year Treasuries closed above 2%, the Bund closed two basis points lower. The ECB continue to be asleep at the wheel with two members coming out on Friday saying that inflation will soon be back below 2%. I have no idea where they studied Economics as most ECB Members continue to be in denial to any kind of inflation that is now rampant across the Euro-Zone. The Bund has support from 160.80/161.60 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 159.95 wider stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1969 buy level before rallying to my 1982 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1940/1955 where I will again be a buyer with a 1929 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1965.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 25.30 buy level before rallying to my 25.75 T/P level and I am still flat. Silver has support from 24.10/24.90 where I will again be a buyer with a 23.55 lower stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.30.
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