U.S. Indices closed higher on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ after the underperformance on Thursday with gains broad-based; Equal weight S&P +0.6%, and the majority of sectors closed green with materials and utilities outperforming, the former buoyed by metal prices and the latter buoyed by gains in Vistra (VST) and other nuclear power stocks after Meta (META) signed a deal with Vistra for its power. T-notes flattened with the front-end yield rising after the NFP report, while long-end yields fell after the SCOTUS avoided ruling on the Trump IEEPA tariffs today, but may potentially rule on the issue this Wednesday. The NFP report saw 50k jobs added in December, missing the 60k forecast, but the unemployment rate declined by more than expected. The report did little to suggest an immediate threat to the labour market and therefore any rate cut bets for January were unwound. In FX, the Dollar gained post-NFP while the Japanese Yen lagged after reports that Japan’s PM Takaichi is considering a snap election in February after strong approval ratings, where Takaichi’s LDP party is only a few seats short of a majority in the Lower House, which, if she can claw back, would see her take more control of the government. The Yen sold while Nikkei futures rallied on the prospects of looser fiscal policy. Oil prices gained as US tensions with Iran grew, while precious metals saw notable gains amid ongoing volatility in the space. Base metals also saw gains. Attention this week turns to US CPI, Retail Sales, Treasury supply, potential tariff rulings from the Supreme Court, and the start of the Q4 25 earnings season. The December Employment Report saw 50k jobs added to the economy, below the 60k consensus but within analyst forecast ranges and also towards the top end of the Fed’s breakeven estimate of 0-50k. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, which was revised down from 4.6%, beneath the 4.5% forecast. The report did little to alter the Fed’s narrative, and it largely confirms a hold at the January meeting as it shows no sharp deterioration in the labour market, and with inflation still above target, gives the Fed room to pause. Regarding earnings, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% M/M in line with forecasts but accelerated from the prior 0.2% (revised up from 0.1%). On a yearly basis, earnings rose 3.8%, accelerating from the 3.5% prior and above the 3.6% forecast. Regarding the NFP prints, remember Fed Chair Powell suggested that headline prints are likely being overstated by about 60k per month; implying an actual print of -10k. Meanwhile, the two-month net revisions were -76k, although the October data was subject to sharp one-time government job losses. Analysts at ING, meanwhile, highlight how job growth is also very concentrated, with 41k of the 50k jobs from private education and health care services. The desk also notes that since January 2023, this sector has accounted for 55% of the 5.2mln jobs added, government jobs accounted for 20%, and leisure and hospitality contributed 18%. Meanwhile, Tech, construction, manufacturing, business services, financial services, retail, transport, and logistics are responsible for just 7% of job creation over that time period, and in December, this group lost 51k jobs, with only one up month in the last eight. Therefore, ING suggests the Fed still has more work to do. Consumer Sentiment rose more than expected in January, 54.0 (exp. 53.5, prev. 52.9), its highest reading since September 2025. Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes. Consumers continue to be focused primarily on high prices and softening labour markets. Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labour markets. Current conditions rose to 52.4 (exp. 50.5, prev. 50.4), and Expectations rose to 55 (exp. 54.2, prev. 54.6). Year-ahead inflation expectations remained at 4.2% (exp. 4.2%), while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.2%). The October Building Permits fell 0.2% to 1.412 million from 1.415 million in September, above the 1.35 million forecast. Single-family authorisations fell 0.5% from September to 876k from 880k. Multi-family units were at 481k. Housing Starts fell 4.6% to 1.246 million from 1.306 million in September, while single-family starts rose 5.4% to 874k from 829k. Multi-family starts were at 347k. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that the data show signs of stabilisation, but big headwinds remain, and the desk continues to think “that a key route for homebuilders to run down their inventory will be building fewer homes.” Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.35% higher while Gold ended Friday with a gain of 1.8%.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 915 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1520 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.65% higher at a price of 6966.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points higher for a 0.48% higher at a price of 49.504.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.02% higher at a price of 25,706.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.97% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.61% higher at a price of 51,939.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.28% lower at $1.1634.
The British Pound closed 0.31% lower at $1.3402.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.53% closing at $157.85
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.38%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.83%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.35% higher at $59.12 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.81% higher at $4509.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. This is followed by both a three-year and ten-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Barkin and Williams at 5.45 pm and 11.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed 0.65% higher on Friday, which was a new all-time closing high. Despite lofty valuations the market continues to make new highs almost daily. The S&P 500 Price – to – Sales Ratio is now trading at 3.49% which is 49% higher than the ration the peak day of the dot-com mania in 2000. Still Wall Street is convinced that valuations will stretch even higher. I am still of the opinion that this is not sustainable a we are getting closer to a meaningful correction which may lead to a ‘CRASH’. When the S&P does top the market will have its largest bear market since the 1930s in my opinion. The problem is the ‘When and Where’’ that we top. T-bill issuance is set to expand again this week, marking the first week in about a month in which the Treasury will not be adding cash to the overnight funding market through paydowns. This week, the Treasury will pay down approximately $16 billion in bills on January 13, followed by net new cash issuance of $23.4 billion in coupons and $4 billion in bills on January 15. Net issuance should continue to increase beyond that point, and we will closely monitor whether overnight funding pressures re-emerge as the Treasury General Account rises, approaching month-end, and ahead of the quarterly refunding announcement. This week will also feature a CPI report. Based on market pricing as of Friday, CPI swap prices were implying a print above 2.9%, effectively rounding to 3%. That, of course, is subject to change as the week progresses. The market was pricing the zero-coupon CPI swap index value at 324.9487, which would imply a 2.95% increase from the 315.61 level that printed in December 2024. While this is clearly subject to change, it is worth noting and something I will be watching closely as the week begins. CPI had been trending higher heading into the government shutdown, reaching 2.9% in August and 3.0% in September, and the November reading did not seem entirely consistent with that trend. As a result, I would not be surprised to see CPI come in above the 2.7% level currently being priced in by analysts for December. Speaking of the jobs report, which showed a solid improvement in the household survey in December, the 3-month Treasury bill 12-month forward minus the 3-month Treasury bill spread contracted to just -4 basis points. This is the highest level the spread has reached since early last year, which on the surface would suggest that the market is pricing in fewer rate cuts from the Fed in the future. The obvious rebuttal is that Trump is likely to appoint a low-rate Fed chair. The obvious response to that, however, is that if you and I know it, then the market knows it as well. The ironic part of all this is that, even though everyone knows Trump is likely to appoint a Fed chair inclined toward cutting rates, both the December 2026 Fed Funds Futures Contract and the 2-year Treasury yield are once again on the verge of breaking out of their proverbial trading ranges and moving sharply higher. This week promises plenty of two-way volatility especially if CPI comes in above 2.7%. On Friday the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 6951 average short position before selling off overnight to my revised 6933 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 6950/6975 with a higher 7001 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the market without first having a meaningful correction. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6922.
Dollar Index
The Dollar continues to build value above 98.50 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 97.80/98.60 with a higher 97.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.10.
Russell 2000
The Russel rallied to my second sell level at 2610 for a now 2580 average short position. I will leave my tight 2655 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2540. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Just before the New York close on Friday the FTSE rallied to my sell range for a now 10130 short position. I will continue to look to add to this trade at 10200 while leaving my 10305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will also raise my T/P level to 10070. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Lat Friday the Dow hit my 49560 sell level. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 49260. I have now exited this position here and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 49600/49900 with a higher 50105 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 49350. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as shortly after I posted on Thursday the NDX traded lower to my 25510 T/P level on my 25650 short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short again at 25760 before covering this position at my 25540 T/P level this morning and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 25700/25900 with the same 26005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25550.
December BUND
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 126.60/127.40 with the same 125.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 127.90. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Last year, Gold rallied 65% while Silver ended 2025 with an incredible 175% gain, which is the best annual performance since 1979. Silver is sometimes called the ‘Devil Metal’ because there are times its price can become so volatile that trading in it becomes perilous which certainly is the case currently. The Market Vane Bullish Consensus for Silver hit 98% from December 22-26. Spot prices made a new high at $84.01 the next day before falling $13. However, overnight Silver has now broken this December high, trading at 84.20 as I go to post. I was lucky on Friday as after Silver hit my 80.50 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members that I wanted to be flat over the weekend and exited this position for a small gain at 79.75 and I am still flat. Given the bullish backdrop from market participants it is only a mater of time before we see a large correction. Today, my sell level will be in small size from 85.00/87.00 with a 88.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 83.40. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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