Despite Jobless Claims jumping to the highest level since 2021, U.S. Indexes closed higher. The NASDAQ 100 led Thursday’s gains closing higher by 1.27%. According to a recent filing, it has been revealed that cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its affiliated entities conducted approximately $70 billion in transactions through accounts at Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank. These transactions occurred between 2019 and the present year. The filing further indicates that significant amounts of money were moved in and out within short periods, sometimes within a matter of days. Silvergate Bank facilitated over $50 billion in deposits for Binance-related parties, while Signature Bank handled more than $19 billion. Global bond markets are experiencing a slump following two unexpected interest rate hikes, which have served as a reality check for traders indicating that central banks are still actively fighting against inflation. Yields on shorter-maturity U.S. Treasury bonds are nearing their highest levels since March, while Australian bonds have reached levels not seen in over a decade. Investors are once again turning away from sovereign debt after the Bank of Canada surprised the market by joining the Reserve Bank of Australia in implementing rate hikes to tackle persistently high consumer price increases. This tightening of monetary policy is causing traders to reconsider their expectations of potential rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year, highlighting the ongoing battle against inflation and suggesting that it may not be coming to an end anytime soon. Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly planning to introduce an ad-supported tier for its Prime Video streaming service in an effort to expand its ad business and generate more revenue from its entertainment offerings. Although discussions are still in the early stages, this move follows cost-cutting measures within Amazon that have led to significant layoffs. Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, Amazon’s advertising revenue grew by 21% year over year, reaching $9.5 billion in the first quarter. In the United States, Amazon ranks as the third-largest player in terms of digital ad revenue, trailing behind Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META). Advertisers have expressed enthusiasm for an ad-supported option on Prime Video, similar to offerings from competitors like Netflix (NFLX) and Disney (DIS). European Markets closed mixed. Revised data reveals that the Euro area experienced a mild recession during the winter period, primarily driven by the surge in energy prices following Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. Between January and March, the economy of the 20-nation bloc contracted by 0.1%, which, when combined with the same magnitude of decline in the previous quarter, resulted in the first six-month contraction since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Asia, the United States, Taiwan, and Japan have reportedly agreed to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones, as part of efforts to enhance coordination in the event of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. The shared data would be particularly valuable in a conflict scenario involving Taiwan, as it would enable better monitoring of Chinese surface warships and submarines operating around the island. Additionally, it could provide improved situational awareness for Taiwan and neighbouring countries regarding the movements of the People’s Liberation Army Navy in the first island chain, extending from Japan to the Philippines, during peacetime. Pan Gongsheng, the Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), made a statement emphasising that China has sufficient policy tools to maintain stability in the Yuan’s exchange rate. He highlighted that the economic fundamentals in China provide support for the Yuan and mentioned that the U.S. Dollar is expected to weaken as the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle comes to an end. Pan also stated that the PBOC will exercise caution in adjusting interest rates and implementing quantitative easing measures as it aims to maintain stability in its currency while also adopting a cautious approach to its monetary policy. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.82% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold close higher by 1.1%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 205 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1149 points for June. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.62% higher at a price of 4294.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points higher for a 0.50% gain at a price of 33,833.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.27% higher at a price of 14,484.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.02% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.85% lower at a price of 31,641.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.40% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.0778.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.2554.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.6% closing at $138.93.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.23%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 3.73%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.82% lower at $71.21 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.1% higher at $1963.10 an ounce.
Incredibly we have no economic data of note on either side of the Atlantic. However, ECB Member De Guindos will speak at 9.00 am and the Bank of Canada will release its latest Employment data at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It does not matter. The fastest monetary tightening cycle in history, leading to the highest debt construct ever, 40-Year highs in inflation, the largest war in Europe since WW11, energy crisis, leading indicators collapsing for 18 months. I could go on but it does matter as Wednesday’s across the board sell-off was reversed helped by the fact that the VIX got crushed to new lows. Asset Managers are not chasing this market higher and are using rips to lighten their holdings. Between COVID and the beginning of the tightening cycle the Fed added nearly $5 trillion to its balance sheet. Guess how much they have reduced it? By a mere 6.5%. The bottom line is that it is liquidity that is driving the market making a liar out of the Fed that they are tightening financial conditions. The past number of Fridays have seen the VIX get crushed leading to a higher S&P. This trend will continue until something happens to break it. I am still flat the market. With the Fear & Greed Index closing at 76 which is an Extreme Greed Reading history tells me not be long at current prices. I will now raise my sell level to 4315/4335 with a higher 4351 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 4240/4255 with a tight 4229 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
It took a while but finally the Euro rallied to my 1.0745 T/P level on my latest 1.0710 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0650/1.0720 with the same 1.0595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar fell 0.75% yesterday. This a big move in a 24-hour period. I am still flat as yesterday’s sell level was never threatened. I will now lower my sell level to 103.70/104.50 with a lower 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX. The market closed higher as Wednesday’s sell-off was reversed. No matter what the news the DAX continues to attract buyers on dips. I am still flat. Today, I will increase my sell level to 16080/16160 with a higher 16225 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7490/7560 with the same 7445 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the higher Gilt Yields I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow continues to build value above its 50-Day Moving Average after closing above it last Friday. I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 33400/33650 with the same 33095 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX led yesterday’s gains after leading Wednesday’s sell-off which looks like it was another one-day wonder for Bears. Yesterday’s move higher has me short at 14480. I will add to this position at 14630 while leaving my 14705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
September BUND
I am still flat as the Bund reversed most of Wednesday’s decline. I will now raise my buy level to 132.70/133.40 with a higher 131.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
The idea of buying against the 100 Day Moving Average continues to pay dividends. Yesterday Gold rallied to my 1951 T/P level on my latest 1942 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1928/1943 with the same 1915 ‘’Closing Stop’’
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied over 2% yesterday. This move higher saw my 24.20 T/P level triggered on my latest 23.40 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 22.80/23.60 with the same no stop.
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