Despite Nvidia reporting much stronger than expected earnings, U.S. Equity Markets got hit hard across the board yesterday. All three American Indexes had Key Day Reversals, led by the 2.19% fall in the NASDAQ 100. Firmer Bond Yields and a stronger Dollar after lower than expected Jobless Claims slammed tech stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) recorded a third-straight sales forecast that beat analyst expectations. Nvidia’s upbeat sales outlook is evidence that the tech sector, particularly the AI segment, continues to thrive despite potential economic headwinds. The chipmaker’s projection of $16 billion in sales for the upcoming quarter, significantly surpassing estimates of $12.5 billion, speaks to the increasing demand for chips worldwide. CEO Jensen Huang’s assertion that Nvidia is a bellwether for AI’s future in the tech industry further underscores the company’s pivotal role in shaping next-generation technologies. Today marks the commencement of the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a pivotal gathering hosted by the Federal Reserve that brings monetary policy into sharp focus. Following the Fed’s recent aggressive stance on interest rate hikes, investors are anxiously awaiting clues on potential changes moving forward. Any indication of a pause or an imminent conclusion to policy tightening could spur the bond markets. The spotlight will certainly be on Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech this afternoon, predicted to provide the most insight into the Fed’s strategic framework, and serving as the symposium’s main event. Many U.S retailers have cut their annual profit forecasts in the face of a more cost-conscious consumer. These retailers are observing a trend among middle-income Americans who, struggling with substantial debts and increased living costs, are becoming more prudent about saving money when contemplating purchases. This shift in consumer sentiment is prompting retailers to cater to the price-conscious consumer, while big-box retailers are benefiting from strong demand for cheaper products. New-Home Sales in the U.S. have jumped to the highest level in over a year with a 4.4% increase in single-family homes sold. With many existing homeowners holding onto their properties due to lower interest rates, the supply of resale homes has dwindled. This, in turn, has driven potential buyers towards new constructions, giving the new-home market a much-needed boost. While homebuilders are welcoming the demand of potential buyers, they will need to continue combatting high borrowing costs by offering additional incentives. European Markets closed lower following a volatile trading session. The Hamburg Commercial Bank’s recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) reading demonstrated a sharp drop in the Euro-Zone’s business activity. Europe’s contracting PMI was weighed down by the service industry’s first decline in 2023 and a struggling manufacturing output. However, the Euro-Zone’s manufacturing PMI provided a glimmer of hope with its first uptick in seven months, suggesting the decline may have bottomed out. The European Central bank will need to carefully navigate its policy decisions in order to find the right balance between managing inflationary pressures and avoiding a deeper economic downturn. In Asia, the Nikkei fell 2.05% this morning as investors are nervous ahead of Powell’s key speech this afternoon. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.2% while Gold saw some profit-taking after Wednesday strong rebound, closing lower by 0.2%.
To mark my 2850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 551 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1047 points for August following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.35% lower at a price of 4376.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 373 points lower for a 1.08% loss at a price of 34,099.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.19% lower at a price of 14,816.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.39% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.05% lower at a price of 31,624.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0808.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 126.12.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7% closing at $145.84.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.51%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.46%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.23%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.20% higher at $79.10 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $1915.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GDP Final Q2 which came in as expected with a 0.0% print. At 9.00 am we have the German IFO Survey, followed by a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 12.00 pm. Next, we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Finally, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s key speech at Jackson Hole, beginning at 3.05 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Wrong! Much to my surprise the S&P is trading 100 Handles lower from where I marked prices 24 hours ago as all three American Indexes saw strong selling at their respective 50 Day Moving Averages. There is no doubt that the last two months have been some of the toughest market conditions to navigate in many years as traders (including me) have been seriously whipsawed by these wild market moves. The S&P is now severely oversold as we wait for Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 3.05 pm. The $BPSPX is now even more oversold as shown by the 14-Day RSI while closed at an unbelievable 14 print. The S&P ended Thursday session with a sizeable Downside Key Day Reversal as bulls failed to defend the 5 EMA and 8MA support levels. Technically this is not good. We now have an ugly Weekly Red Candle leading to a Head & Shoulder that is extremely bearish with a 4056-target price. The Bank Index is at key support and the question today is whether Powell is going to see banks break this strong support line. Remember in March the Fed intervened aggressively to support the banks. The S&P traded the whole of yesterday’s buy range for a 4428 average long position before stopping me out near the close at 4389 for a nasty loss and I am now flat. The S&P has strong support at last Friday’s 4342 low print. Today, I will be a small buyer from 4340/4355 with a 4319 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4384. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short.
EUR/USD
After the Euro hit my 1.0815 buy level we had a small rally to my revised 1.0844 T/P level. This morning the Euro is trading lower at 1.0780 which is the 200 Day Moving Average. This level should act as strong support as we have not been below this key support level since last year. As a result, I have bought the Euro here at 1.0780. I will add to this position at 1.0710. I will have a 1.0655 ‘’Closing Stop’’ while my T/P level is at 1.0910. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar is trading 0.6% higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. This move higher has me short again at a price of 103.90. I will add to this position at 104.60 with a now higher 105.10 stop. The Daily Sentiment Index for the Dollar is over 90. This is a level from which we have seen strong reversals before. I will have a T/P level on this position at 103.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
After the DAX hit my 15620-buy level I had too many long open equity positions. I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long DAX position at 15620 and I am now flat. This morning, the DAX is trading unchanged at 15620. We have support from 15380/15480 where I will be a strong buyer with a 15315 stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 15570
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7210/7280 with the same 7145 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell over 600 points from its afternoon 34690 high print in what turned out to be a brutal sell-off. This move lower has me long at an average rate of 34195. Ahead of Powell I will look to exit this position on any further move higher to 34260. I will leave my 33895 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! An incredible reversal off Nvidia’s earnings with the NDX falling over 3.5% from its morning high. I bought the NDX at an average rate of 15085 before being stopped out of this trade at 14895 and I am now flat. The NDX has strong support at last Friday’s 14580 low print. I will be an aggressive buyer from 14500/14650 with a 14395 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14840.
September BUND
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 131.00/131.80 with the same 130.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
A stronger Dollar sees Gold trading lower at 1913 this morning. As I am still long Silver I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1882/1897 with a lower 1869 stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1910.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. My patience has finally paid off with my long 24.20 long position now in profit. I will now raise my T/P level on this 24.20 long position to 25.10. I will now have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 22.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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