U.S. Equity Markets finished the day, led by the small 0.26% gain in the NASDAQ 100 on a day that the VIX closed 2% lower at a price of 19.56. Markets closed higher helped by the Philadelphia Fed Index rising 18.5 points month over month, marking it the most positive figure since April. Elsewhere, Initial Jobless Claims beat expectations, falling 2,000 compared with a week earlier. Existing Home Sales dropped for the sixth straight month as the housing market continues to slow. Median existing home prices fell $10,000 – the first monthly decline since January. Tech stalwart Cisco Systems provided a spark for the industry as it beat earnings consensus and cited improving supply-chain dynamics and a healthy backlog of demand. Within the S&P 500, seven of 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Officials from the European Central Bank continue to suggest more aggressive rate hikes moving forward. Executive board member Isabel Schnabel even went as far as saying rates need to rise because a recession alone would not ease pricing pressures. The Bank of England is expected to surpass the Federal Reserve in its rate hike cycle as it deals with historically high inflation. Euro-Zone inflation confirmed to be 8.9% in July compared with the prior year – in line with early estimates. In Asia, China’s Ministry of Water Resources warned that severe drought conditions could have future impacts on power output and crop productions. Several banks have started to cut China’s full-year economic growth forecasts as recent July data pointed toward a significant slowdown. Taiwan and the U.S. reached an agreement to begin new trade negotiations. Philippine’s central bank raised rates 0.50% to combat higher inflation, which soared to 6.4% in July compared with last year. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.44% while Gold fell a further 0.2% on further Dollar strength.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1698 points for August, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.23% higher at a price of 4283.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 18 points higher for a 0.06% gain at a price of 33,999.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.26% gain at a price of 13,505.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.96% lower at a price of 28,942.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.0095.
The British Pound closed 1% lower at 1.1930.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5% closing at $135.82.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 1.11%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.32%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 2.88%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.44% higher at $90.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $1759.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Retail Sales and German Producer Prices at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. Finally, we have Canadian Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. There is no U.S. Data due to be released today.
Cash S&P 500
Nothing much has changed after a trading session that saw little or no movement. I am in New York rushing to connect for my flight to Dublin and as a result my Daily Commentary has been sent out early. I am still flat the S&P hoping we can rally above 4300 so I can start to put on a Macro short position. As I said yesterday, risk is that we rally to 4320/4360 before seeing a more meaningful correction. As a result, I will not chase the S&P lower leaving my 4308/4328 sell level unchanged with the same 4343 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 4235/4255 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 4223 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4293. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4271.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly, the Euro just missed my 1.0200 T/P level before falling over 100 points. I am still long at 1.0165 with the same 1.0085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0180. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar soared yesterday, hitting my 107.20 sell level. I am still short. I will add to this position at 107.80 while raising my stop on this short position to 108.15. I will now raise my T/P level to 106.80 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
In contrast to yesterday, the DAX traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will not chase the market higher leaving my 13430/13510 buy level unchanged with the same 13355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13590.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE surprisingly traded again in a narrow range and I am still flat. The FTSE has resistance from 7590/7640 where I will continue to be a seller with a tight 7685 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell shy of yesterday’s buy range by 100 points before rallying over 200 points into the close and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 33580/33780 while leaving my 33385 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. The Dow has resistance from 34250/34450 where I will again be a seller with a 34555 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. With no U.S data releases today I am expecting a quiet trading session which is no surprise given the fact that most traders are still on vacation.
Cash NASDAQ 100
In contrast to the past two trading sessions, the NDX was the strongest of the American Indexes yesterday. I am still flat and have no interest in chasing the market lower given how overbought the NDX is at this time. Therefore, I will leave my 13750/13950 sell level unchanged with the same 14055 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September BUND
Just before the close I was stopped out of my 154.70 long Bund position at 153.75 and I am now flat. I cannot see the ECB letting Bund Yields rise despite the enormous 60 basis point rally in U.K. Yields this week following the 10.1% CPI print. The Bund has support from 152.30/153.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 151.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 153.75.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market again traded in a narrow range despite the stronger Dollar. As I am now long Silver, I will lower my Gold buy level to 1730/1745 with a lower 1719 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1757.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my second buy level at 19.60 for a now 19.90 average long position. I am still long with a now lower 20.30 T/P level. I will leave my 19.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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