U.S. Equity Markets closed lower following another reversal from afternoon highs. The Treasury Yield curve inverted to its deepest level since the 1980s as the U.S. two-year Treasury yield hit 4.50%, while Initial Jobless Claims rose for the first time in six weeks but remained historically low with 196,000 Americans filing for unemployment last week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that it is too early to declare victory against inflation. The 30-Year Treasury Auction turned ugly , generating the biggest tale in two years, pushing both Bond Yields and the Dollar higher. Fedspeak remains mixed as Powell and other members of the rate-setting committee continue to tame market expectations in an effort to quell a resurgence of higher inflation. Within the S&P 500 Index, all the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets close higher. Germany’s Preliminary CPI for January was 9.2% year over year, slowing from December’s figure of 9.6% and providing further evidence that inflation has likely peaked. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that he expects inflation to decrease rapidly by the second half of the year and reach annual growth-rate levels of around 4%. ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it is far from done raising interest rates, suggesting 50-basis-point hikes in March and May are needed. Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank, hiked rates aggressively under Governor Erik Thedéen’s first meeting. Rates were increased by 50 basis points and now sit at 3.00%. In Asia, the state-run Korea Development Institute cut its growth forecast for the first half of 2023 to 1.1% from the previous 1.4% due to slowing private consumption. The Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan’s economic sentiment survey showed businesses are increasingly positive about the outlook. Chinese households added a record $2.6 trillion in new bank deposits last year, boosting the country’s economic growth potential. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.04% lower while a stronger Dollar saw Gold fall 1%.
To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 125 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1504 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.88% lower at a price of 4082
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 249 points lower for a 0.73% loss at a price of 33,699.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.91% lower at a price of 12,381.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.64% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.31% higher at a price of 27,670.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0734.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2113.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $131.60.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 3.28.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.68%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.04% lower at $77.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.93% lower at $1861.10 an ounce.
This morning on the economic front we already had the release of U.K GDP which rose 0.00% versus +0.00% expected. Monthly GDP for December fell 0.5% versus -0.3% expected. At 1.30 pm we have Canadian Unemployment and Average Earnings. Finally, we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and a speech from Fed Member Waller at 3.00 pm and 5.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday was an ugly session for the S&P. Having made a morning high at 4160 on the weaker than expected German CPI, the market fell over 90 Handles following the weaker than expected 30-Year Treasury Auction. I have mentioned all-week not to chase the S&P higher given the $NYSI being max overbought as every time we see this reading the S&P tends to fall at least 5%. The problem with this indicator is the timing. Buying the dip in the S&P has worked well so far this year but even I was too high as the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4107 average long position before stopping me out of this position at my revised 4090 exit level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. With the VIX rising 5% to close at its 50 Day Moving Average of 20.71 we have to be careful. A break and close over 21 may see the VIX test its 200-Day MA at 25.18. If this happens we will see a further aggressive sell-off in the S&P to my 4020/4035 target level. As I am long both the NDX and Dow, my only interest in buying the S&P is at the above support level. I will have a 3999 ‘’Closing Stop’’ if triggered. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4061.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0590/1.0660 with the same 1.0525 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well as the market dipped lower to my 102.60 buy level before rallying to my 103.10 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 101.80/102.60 with the same 101.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market rallied to my 15620-sell level shortly after I posted yesterday morning. It took a few hours but finally a 14-day RSI print at 70 proved correct as the market traded lower to my revised 15545 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 15630/15730 with a higher 15805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the market is from 15050/15130, with the same tight 14975 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to ignore all political and economic woes as the market made a new all-time high yesterday before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer from 7770/7840 with the same 7715 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a bad day yesterday. The Dow having hit a morning high at 34240, the Dow promptly sold off over 600 points into the close. This move lower has me long at my revised 33750 average long position as emailed to my Platinum Members. I will leave my 33495 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 33860. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. The Dow has strong resistance from 34350/34600 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 34755 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Initially my NDX plan worked well as yesterday morning the market rallied to my 12620 T/P level with a high of 12680. Subsequently, the NDX fell over 300 points as the German CPI euphoria wore off. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again. I am now long at an average rate of 33420. I will now lower my T/P level to 33510 while leaving my tight 12295 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
Just before the New York close the Bund traded lower to my initial 136.10 buy level. I am still long and I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 135.30. I will leave my 134.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile, my T/P level will be at 136.65. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market traded lower overnight to my 1854 buy level before rallying to my revised 1862 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 1828/1843 where I will be a buyer with a lower 1817 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver had a bad day yesterday, closing lower by over 3%. There is no doubt that the 24.00/25.00 is strong resistance having tested this key battle zone a number of times so far this year. I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 with the same no stop policy. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 23.50. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments