A late sell-off saw U.S. Equity Markets close flat on Thursday with the NASDAQ 100 again outperforming the other main Indexes, closing higher by 0.25%. Despite the late sell-off, the VIX manage to close lower by a further 3%. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) aim to generate an additional $502 million by increasing merchant fees over the coming months – with a sizable portion applied to online purchases. The extra revenue will largely come from network fees and swipe fees for transactions. Fee increases have drawn attention to the ongoing tension between credit-card networks and merchants of all sizes. As a result, the disconnect between the two often results in higher prices that merchants pass on to consumers. Lawmakers are taking note of the impact by proposing legislation that provides merchants with alternative options to lessen the fees for consumer purchases. The startup behind the popular generative artificial intelligence (“AI”) bot ChatGPT is on track to reach $1 billion in annual revenue and is reportedly earning around $80 million of revenue per month. Backed by Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI has been collaborating with other companies to integrate its AI technology into their products and services. OpenAI also recently launched ChatGPT Enterprise, a corporate version of its chatbot with enhanced features and privacy safeguards. OpenAI’s success bodes well for other AI-centric companies like Nvidia (NVDA), fuelling the already white-hot demand for products and components. The Fed has reportedly issued private warnings to regional lenders, instructing them to increase liquidity planning. Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and M&T Bank (MTB) were among the lenders with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion that received notices. Along with liquidity planning, the notices address a wide range of issues such as capital, technology, and compliance. The central bank has expressed concern over signals from money data, with the surge in money supply leading to worries about a recession and deflation. Left unaddressed, these issues can escalate into more severe public orders that could take years for these banks to resolve. European Markets closed mixed. Investors are anticipating that the European Central Bank (“ECB”) will raise interest rates next month after two major Euro-Zone economies reported higher-than-expected inflation for August. Germany’s inflation rose 6.4%, marginally higher than the predicted 6.2%, while Spain’s price growth hit a three-month high in August. The inflation data from the European nations has led to speculation that price growth across the bloc will be larger than expected, potentially influencing the ECB toward additional rate hikes. While some dovish ECB argue that inflation has already decreased significantly, other members advocate for rate hikes to bring price growth closer to the 2% target. The U.K.’s Money Supply has ceased to grow for the first time in more than 13 years, raising red flags for economists who believe the Bank of England (“BoE”) has gone too far. The BoE’s data showed that the M4 (excluding intermediate other financial corporations), a closely watched measure of Money Supply, was stagnant in July compared with a year earlier. Economists had previously linked the surge in money-supply growth during the pandemic to the subsequent increase in inflation. But they now worry that the U.K. is facing a possible recession and deflation. Monetarists have pointed to the decrease in money growth as a warning sign, with former BoE Governor Mervyn King warning that central bankers are ignoring red flags and could lead to a sharp fall in inflation. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher for the sixth consecutive session, ending Thursday with a gain of 2.5%, while Gold fell 0.2% following a quiet trading session.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday to finish August with a gain of 1485 points following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at a price of 4507.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points lower for a 0.48% loss at a price of 34,722.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 15,502.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.10% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.44% higher at a price of 32,761.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.48% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0848.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 126.63.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $145.56.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 2.46%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 4.36%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.09%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.50% higher at $83.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $1939.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Nationwide House Prices which fell 0.8% versus -0.2% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls including average earnings and the unemployment rate at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Global Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P hit a high an afternoon high at 4532 before having a small 25 Handle sell-off into the close. This is no surprise given the near 200-Handle rally since last Friday’s low print. We saw some negative divergences in both the S&P and NDX but we are still in a seasonally strong period making it tricky to have a short position, especially ahead of the U.S. Labour Weekend when of course markets are closed on Monday. Today’s binary event is Non-farm Payrolls which will be released at 1.30 pm. I will leave my 4478/4493 buy level unchanged with the same 4463 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 4560/4575 where I will still be a small seller with a 4591 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro is now trading 100 points lower than Tuesday’s 1.0940 high print. This move lower has me back long at 1.-0860. I will add to this position at 1.0800 while leaving my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0910 ahead of today’s NFP Report. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
The rallied 0.5% yesterday, hitting my 103.70 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 103.30 T/P level. I will add to this position at 104.30 while leaving my 104.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market rose to my 16030 sell level before falling over 100 points. I covered this position too early at 15990 and I am still flat. Despite the late sell-off in the Dow, the DAX is opening higher at 15980 this morning. We have resistance from 16130/16210 where I will again be a seller with a higher 16285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue you to be a buyer from 15700/15780 with a wider 15595 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE sold yesterday having found strong resistance above 7500. I will now lower my sell level to 7500/7570 with a lower 7645 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be a buyer of the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow hit a high at 35105 before falling 350 points off this high into the New York close. This move lower has me long at 34770. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 34860. I will add to this position at 34530 while leaving my 34395 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. The NDX made another new recover high off last week’s low I am seeing plenty of negative divergences which is no surprise given the near 1000-point rally in the past five trading sessions. The NDX has strong resistance from 15700/15850 where I will be a seller with a 15955 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer from 15220/15370 with the same 15095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 15485. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 15590.
September BUND
The Bund surged past the key 132.70 resistance level having just missed yesterday’s initial 131.70 buy level. The Bund will have short-term support from 132.00/132.60. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 131.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am surprised how well Gold is ‘’holding in’’ given the renewed strength of the Dollar. I am still flat as I continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 1902/1917 with the same 1889 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver found resistance at 25.00, eventually selling off late in the day to my 24.40 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position at 23,70 with the same 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments