A somewhat quieter end to the last week after the fireworks of the previous two weeks and that theme is continuing this morning with most traders now on a two week holiday until January 5 when normal markets will return. The US Dollar has continued to strengthen across the board as shown by the Dollar Index which closed at new highs for the year. Bonds have recovered some of last week’s losses even though Oil has bounced nearly 10% off its mid-week lows whilst the Dow and S&P both closed up 0.2% and 0.45% respectively.
I expect this week to be relatively quiet after last week’s incredible volatility which has been as intense as any that I can remember. The economic calendar is extremely light this week and after tomorrow we will get no data of note until next Monday with most markets closed during this time. Today on the economic front we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and US Existing Home Sales with both sets of data due to released at the same time at 3 pm.
March S&P 500
After the fireworks of the previous 10 trading sessions, last Friday was a very quiet ending to the December Futures and Options Expiration with the market only having a late fade in the last 20 minutes of trading. After I posted on Friday I went short the S&P at 2065 and when we did not get any follow through to the downside after the December Contract went off the boards I covered this position for a small loss before going short again at my 2073 sell level. This last trade worked out well as the late fade enabled me to cover this position at 2066 and I am now flat. Today I will again be a small seller into contract highs from 2074/2079 with a 2083 stop. The S&P still has a massive ‘Open Gap’ from last Thursday from 2007/2029 which I would expect to be filled in the coming weeks. However as we are in the seasonally strongest last 10 days of trading for 2014 it is highly unlikely that this ‘Gap’ will be filled before year-end. Today I will also be a small buyer on any dip to 2053/2058 with a 2048 stop.
Euro/USD
After I posted on Friday, the Euro had a brief rally to over 1.2300 before selling off again. Eventually I was stopped out of my long 1.2280 position for a small loss at 1.2245. The market subsequently traded lower to my 1.2220 buy level I am still long and I will leave my stop at a tight 1.2195.
US Dollar Index
Late on Friday the Dollar Index traded higher to my 89.85 sell level. I am still short and today I will lower my stop slightly to 90.20. If I am stopped out of this trade I will be a more aggressive seller in front of 90.50 with a 91.05 stop.
March Dax
The Dax plan worked out well on Friday as after I posted the market traded lower to my 9760 buy level before having a nice rally into the close which enabled me to cover this position at 9830 and I am now flat. Today I will still be a small seller on any further rally to 9930/9960 with 10005 stop. My only interest in buying the market is still on a dip to 9740/9775 with the same 9695 stop.
March FTSE
The impressive rally in the FTSE continued on Friday with the market again just missing my buy level before trading higher. Today I will raise my buy level to 6460/6490 with a 6430 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a small seller on any further rally to 17930/17980 with the same 18020 stop. Even though this is the seasonally strongest trading time frame of the year I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
March BUND
After I posted on Friday the Bund again rallied with the market eventually trading higher to my 15510 sell level. I am still short and I will leave my stop the same at 155.40.
Gold Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a small buyer on any further dip to 1182/1190 with the same 1175 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 1160 with a 1148 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long from last week at 15.80 with the same 15.45 stop.
Recent Comments