U.S. Indices closed higher on Monday, seeing gradual strength throughout the session, paring the weakness seen overnight. The Russell outperformed while sectors were mixed. Consumer Staples led the gains, largely due to Walmart (WMT) rising on news that it is to be added to the NASDAQ 100 index. Financials lagged, however, on President Trump’s aim at credit card fees, calling on them to be capped – which hit banks ahead of earnings. Elsewhere, focus lay largely on Fed independence threats after the DoJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell over building renovation costs. The news weighed on the Dollar while the Treasury curve steepened with long-end yields rising as traders price in more term premium. Oil prices settled in the green with focus on geopolitical updates and any potential escalations between the US and Iran. With the Dollar sold and a turnaround in stocks, Antipodes and Sterling outperformed, with Antipodes benefiting from rising metal prices. Although the Dollar was hit, the Japanese Yen was the lagging currency in continuation of Friday’s price action as more reports highlight PM Takaichi’s ruling LDP party is planning to dissolve the country’s Lower House. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.65% and Gold at new all-time highs, closing above $2600 with a 2.35% gain.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 202 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1722 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% higher at a price of 6977.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points higher for a 0.17% gain at a price of 49.590.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 25,787.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 2.93% higher at a price of 53,461.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.27% lower.
The Euro closed 0.29% higher at $1.1669.
The British Pound closed 0.43% higher at $1.3461.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.15% closing at $158.12
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.37%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.80%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.64% higher at $59.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.35% higher at $4615.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.S. Sentix Investor Confidence at 11.00 am. This is followed by ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and CPI at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have New Home Sales. Finally, we have a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Monday with a 0.17% gain. Despite all four main American Indexes closing higher the VIX also ended Monday with a 4% gain. This is the second trading session out of the past three sessions that both the VIX and U.S. Indexes have closed higher. This is not a healthy backdrop which normally is a warning sign of an imminent decline. But as we know these are not normal markets as not one analyst is looking for a drop in the S&P in 2026. The current unanimity has a famous precedent. In January 1973, when the Dow edged to what was then an all-time high at 1051.70, Barron’s summarised the expectation of its roundtable analysts this way: ‘’Not a Bear Among Them’’. As one pundit explained years later, the ‘’Universal Bullishness’’ was simply a description of what had already happened, a 15% Dow rally in 1972. ‘’Actually’’ the pundit said, stocks were ‘’on the very brink of total annihilation’’. The Dow peaked on January 11, 1973 and declined 45% to December 1974. It was not until the end of 1982, nine years later, that the Index exceeded its 1973 peak. It is extremely difficult to get more bullish than ‘’NO BEARS’’ and here we are again. In my opinion the bearish potential now is no less than it was then. The VIX 1-Day closed below 10 yesterday, so if you are expecting a big move higher following the CPI report, it is unlikely to come from an implied volatility perspective, at least initially. Any meaningful move would need to be driven by real buying rather than volatility expansion. That said, volatility can always be pushed higher overnight to set up the CPI crush that everyone has grown to know and love. The S&P 500 looks fine at this point, but I certainly do not think this is the major breakout that so many have been dreaming about since the end of October. As it stands, the index is not even trading a full bar above resistance at the trendline. We saw similar behaviour at the start of both 2022 and 2025. In my view, the market’s underlying mechanics are not positioned for a face-ripping move higher. It can continue to grind, but at some point, volatility will mean-revert higher, and we are likely to see an unwind similar to what occurred at the end of October and into November. It is also somewhat interesting that, despite all of the problems facing oil over the past four years, XLE has never really broken down. Instead, it has largely moved sideways throughout that entire period. One would imagine that if oil were ever to break out decisively and begin rising, it could prove quite bullish for the sector. XLE now appears to be sitting at a very important resistance level and is probably worth watching closely. That could be very important if the move in oil above the downtrend actually holds and prices begin to work their way back into the $60s. For now, $55 appears to be the floor for oil, and it remains one of the few commodities that has not meaningfully moved higher. It is certainly worth watching for a potential upside move. Monday’s reversal off the morning lows saw the S&P trade the whole of my sell range for a now 6965 average short position. I will leave my 7001 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 6948. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1750/1.1830 with the same 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1680.
Dollar Index
The Dollar closed at 98.90 yesterday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 97.80/98.60 with the same 97.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.10.
Russell 2000
The Russel continues to trade at new all-time highs following last week’s 4.6% gain. I am still short at an average rate of 2580 with the same tight 2655 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 2560. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE traded in a narrow range on Monday. I am still short at an average rate of 10130. I will now raise my T/P level to 10090. I will continue to look to add to this trade at 10200 while leaving my 10305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow continues to attract buying on every dip. Late Monday the Dow hit my 49620 sell level. To reduce risk, I covered this position at my revised 49540 T/P level and I am now flat. Ahead of CPI this afternoon, my only interest in selling the Dow is on a further rally to 49800/50100 with a higher 50305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49560. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX reversed Monday morning lows, hitting my sell range for a now 25750 short position. I will look to add to this trade at 25950 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 26105. I will now raise my T/P level to 25610. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 126.60/127.40 with the same 125.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 127.90. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver tagged on a further 6% on Monday, closing at another new all-time high above $85. After the market hit my 85.30 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit this short position at my revised 84.08 T/P level and I am still flat. Big banks have been selling Silver for the past 20 years which is the main reason that Gold has been outperforming Silver over the past number of years. But as we have seen over the past 10 months this is now changing. Allegedly both BAC and Citibank have a combined short position in Silver of about 4.4 billion ounces. If this is true, the shorts cannot find such a huge amount of silver anywhere to cover their shorts and therefore short sellers have to settle in cash. At $100 per oz, that would come out to a $440 billion short position. However, with shorts having to close out their massive positions analysts could see silver prices trade above $300/$400 per oz. This is scary and probably justifies the enormous rally in Silver since October. I am going to stay flat Silver for now and wait for a meaningful correction first to get long again. TBD.
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