A quiet start to European trading following Monday’s subdued session due to the Labour Day Holiday in America. Gold is the notable exception having hit a high at 3509 overnight before selling off, trading at 3485 as I go to post. The Euro is weaker, trading with a 1.16 Handle having hit a high on Monday at 1.1740. Hopefully we will see some two-way price action today as the American Traders return from the long weekend.
To mark my 3225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 210 points yesterday on the first trading session for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% lower at a price of 6460.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower for a 0.20% loss at a price of 45,544.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.22% lower at a price of 23,415.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.11% higher at a price of 42,240.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.11% lower.
The Euro closed 0.22% higher at $1.1710.
The British Pound closed 0.24% higher at $1.3541.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.16% closing at $147.23
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.75%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.75%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.23%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.94% higher at $64.61 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $3476.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 PM followed by ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Atlanta Fed GDP NOW at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
No Change: It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with markets closed in the US on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. It marks the unofficial end of summer, with kids returning to school and traders coming back from the Hamptons. Hopefully, it also signals the end of the summer malaise we have seen over the past few weeks. Although the week is shortened, it will still be busy, with the ISM report on Tuesday, JOLTS on Wednesday, ADP and ISM Services on Thursday, and the BLS jobs report on Friday. In many ways, the jobs report has become a complete joke and cannot be relied on. Last month’s revisions really turned the outlook for monetary policy on its head. However, remember that we saw a similar trend last year, which led the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting—and then, just like that, the data started improving again. That makes the jobs data not only highly volatile, but it also raises serious questions about the path of rate cuts. What happens if the August jobs report shows a 200,000 gain and July’s NFP print is revised higher to over 150,000? In that case, why should the Fed be cutting at all? On the other hand, what if July is revised down to -50,000 and August comes in at just 10,000 jobs? Then the Fed would be well behind the curve. Until we see the August data, we will just have no idea. The spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 3-month/1-year forward is just 53 bps, which suggests only two more rate cuts over the next 12 months, excluding September. The 3-month Treasury bill is currently trading at 4.15%, which already has a September cut priced in. For now, the market is signalling just three cuts in total between now and September 2026. What is interesting, though, is that Fed Funds Futures over the next twelve months are pricing at 3.24%, which implies just over four rate cuts. When comparing the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill 1-year forward and Fed Funds futures, it is clear that expectations for Fed easing have been consistently more aggressive on the Futures side. This suggests the rate-cutting cycle may not be as steep as some parts of the market are expecting. Perhaps this is directly related to the inconsistent labor market data reporting we have been receiving. I would argue that significant fluctuations in data points raise questions about the accuracy of the data and could lead to distortions across markets. While I hate talking about Bitcoin, it is a very good liquidity proxy, and so far it has been weakening right on schedule, falling by around 13%. If the view on reserve is correct, then Bitcoin should continue to decline as liquidity is drained from the system. The same would hold true for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. We have seen divergent paths in the past, only for the two to come back in line at some point. The difference this time is that there is nothing left to push reserves higher. The reverse repo facility is drained, and QT is still running in the background. Reserves are likely to continue moving lower until the Fed stops QT and restarts asset purchases—which, as of now, is not on the horizon. My S&P plan worked well as the market traded higher to my 6506 sell level before falling 50 Handles on Friday. Unfortunately, I covered this position too early at 6496 and I am still flat. I will continue with my strategy of selling rallies. Today, my sell range will be from 6475/6495 with a lower 6511 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6453.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro at 1.1695 from last Friday with the same 1.1640 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 1.1765 while leaving my 1.1825 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from last week at 97.80. I will add to this position at 97.00 while leaving my 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will also leave my 98.30 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short from last Tuesday at a price of 2365. I will continue to add to this position on any further move higher to 2425 while leaving my 2330 T/P level unchanged. I will also leave my 2475 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat the FTSE Market as prices traded in a narrow range on Monday. This morning, the FTSE is opening lower at a price of 9190. I will now lower my sell level to 9245/9315 with a lower 9385 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9195.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow. I will not chase the Dow lower as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 45800/46050 with the same 46305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 45580.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: The NDX has short-term resistance from 23520/23680 where I will again be a seller with the same 23805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 23360. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from yesterday morning at a price of 129.15. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 128.45 while leaving my 127.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 129.65. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Wrong! I was stopped out of my 3454 average short position on the close last night at 3475 and I am now flat. Gold is short-term overbought. We have short-term resistance from 3512/3532 where I will again be a seller with a higher 3551 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3488.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver as the market traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours following its 5% surge over the previous two trading sessions. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 38.70/39.70 with the same 37.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 41.10.
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