U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Monday with notable outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 amid further strength in Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) supporting the move. However, both the Dow and Russell 200 again closed lower with the Dow now lower for nine consecutive trading sessions. The Dollar was flat on Monday, within very contained ranges in thin newsflow as market participants await tomorrow’s pivotal FOMC Meeting and the accompanying SEPs and Powell press conference. T-Notes ultimately closed flat ahead of key risk events although Treasuries fell from their highs following a stronger Global Services PMI. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed flat following a quiet session. The big mover on Monday was Bitcoin which rallied over 5%, sitting at a price of $107K as I go to press.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 728 points for December after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.38% higher at a price of 6074.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 110 points lower for a 0.25% loss at a price of 43,717.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.45% higher at a price of 22,096.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.19% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.24% lower at a price of 39,364.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.01% lower at $1.0511.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2687.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $154.17.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher 2.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 4.45%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.41%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.2% higher at $70.76 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.01% lower at $2651 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Unemployment Rate which printed 4.3% as expected. Next, we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am, followed by the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. At 2.15 pm we have Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production .Next, we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 20 Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Never in my 40 years of trading have I seen such divergence in the American Indexes. Breadth is at it worst levels since 9/11 with the McClellan Oscillator continuing to weaken, closing at -165 last night. This should not be happening with the NDX again closing at new all-time highs. Another Red Flag is the 4% rise in the VIX yesterday. A rising VIX in a rising market is a major technical signal that tends in normal circumstances to see a sell-off. However, with the Dow down for nine consecutive trading sessions it is very difficult not to be long this market for a bounce back. If I told you that NVIDIA is down 10% over the past few weeks and that the NDX would be making one new high after another you would not believe it. But yes even one of the Mag 7’s and key drivers of the 2024 rally getting spanked has zero impact on the Index for the locusts have honed in on other stocks such as $TSLA and $MSTR. I say locusts because it is really a feasting crowd mentality. Tesla now with a 138+ forward multiple as investors are buying any field of dreams narrative that justifies piling into a stock that is getting technically extremely stretched. How the Fed can justify a rate cut tomorrow following last week’s 3% PPI print is beyond me especially when financial conditions are looser now than before the Global Financial Crisis back in 2008. I am still flat the S&P as I had no sell level in yesterday’s session. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6108/6126 where I will be a small seller with a 6141 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 6000/6020. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 5985 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change: The boring sideways action in the Euro shows no sign of ending. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro is I will add to this position on any further move lower to 1.0440 with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market again traded in a narrow range on Monday. The Dollar has resistance from 107.20/108.00 where I will continue to be a small seller with the same 108.55 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 106.75.
Cash DAX
The breakup of the German Government saw the DAX underperform the rest of the market. Is this a reality check for the DAX? I have no idea but 2024 has told us that any sell-off in the DAX has been met by aggressive buying. I am still flat as the market never came close to Monday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 20440/20540 with a lower 20635 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 20380.
Cash FTSE
Overnight, the FTSE traded lower to my buy range for a now 8230 long position. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 8160 while leaving my 8095 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 8190. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closing lower for the ninth consecutive trading session saw the market hit my second buy level at 43710 for a now 43825 average long position. I will have a 43595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position. I will now lower my T/P level to 43970. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Monday’s 1.5% surge in the NDX saw the market trade the whole of my sell range for a now 21990 average short position. This morning the NDX is trading at a price of 22020 as I go to press having hit a high print at 22105 shortly after the market re-opened. The 14-Day RSI is above 70 while the market trades outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band and up against a major trendline. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 21880 while leaving my 22205 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
Following Friday’s aggressive sell-off in the Bund, the market traded in a narrow 40-point range yesterday and I am still flat. The Bund has short-term support from 133.50/134.30 where I will continue to be a small buyer with a132.75 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
It looks like all markets have gone on ‘’Hold’’ ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement. I am still flat. Gold has support from 2610/2626 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 2594 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2640.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I am still long at an average rate of 30.95 with the same 31.60 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments