U.S. Equity Markets ultimately closed primarily in the green on Monday although the NASDAQ 100 gave up early gains as Tech sold off. The only sectors to close in the red were Tech and Energy, with the latter weighed on by tumbling crude prices in the aftermath of Israel’s response to Iran, whereby the response was seen as ‘moderate’ as it only focused on military targets and avoided oil or nuclear facilities. The Israeli response resulted in initial upside for stocks but did close off highs as tech weakness weighed. The downside in oil prices did support other oil sensitive stocks like airlines (JETS) and cruises (NCLH, RCL, CCL). Elsewhere, T-Notes were choppy, initially sold on the risk on trade as geopolitical risk premium was unwound but started to see a gradual upside in the European morning – perhaps driven by the notably lower oil prices. Nonetheless, gains were short lived and T-Notes sold off ahead of supply and the financing estimates, likely driven by dealer succession. The auctions were ultimately soft, while financing estimates saw little reaction ahead of quarterly refunding on Wednesday. In FX, the Dollar saw mild weakness while the Euro outperformed and THE Japanese Yen lagged, with JPY hampered by higher US Treasury Yields and in wake of the LDP losing its parliamentary majority over the weekend. Monday witnessed another soft 5 Year Auction from the US ahead of quarterly refunding and key US data. The US Treasury sold USD 70billion of 5yr notes with a high yield of 4.138%, tailing the when issued by 1.6bps; above the six auction average of a 0.5bps tail and vs the prior auction being on the screws. The bid-to-cover of 2.39x was in line with the prior and recent averages, although direct demand fell and indirect demand rose. Dealers were left with 14.17%, in line with recent averages but above the prior 11.5%. Elsewhere Oil closed 6.13% lower higher while Gold was basically flat, ending Monday with a loss of 0.2%.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was Made 60 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2056 points for October after ending September with a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.27% higher at a price of 5823.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 273 points higher for a 0.65% gain at a price of 42,387.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 20,351.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.41% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.82% higher at a price of 38,605.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0813.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2971.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $153.23.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.26%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.27%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.13% lower at $67.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $2741 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am, followed by U.K. Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals at 9.30 am. Next, we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 12.30 pm. This is followed by the Housing Market Index at 1.00 pm while at 2.00 pm we have JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence. Finally, at 5.00 pm we have a Seven-Year Treasury Auction.
Cash S&P 500
The weakest seasonal period of the election year cycle has now ended with the S&P on course to close higher for the month. If it does it will mean that the S&P has closed higher for 12 of the past 13 months as my ‘’Nothing Matters’’ theme shows no sign of ending anytime soon. With the S&P within 0.5% of its all-time high we are as I mentioned yesterday confronted with signal charts that technically justify a rally from here which is just insane. The $BPSPX RSI closed at 32 last night while today should see the $NYSI Maximum oversold when the latest reading is released. How can signal charts be so oversold when we have no correction in price making trying to get an edge in the market really difficult. One thing is clear it is very hard for bears to stay short given the backdrop. One comfort for bears is sheer un-sustainability of the recent debt deluge. Markets just can’t keep absorbing annual $6 trillion deficits without major consequences. This is one of the main reasons why a number of high-profile bond experts are short the bond market. Key levels to watch if the S&P has a post-election meltdown. This is where I will consider new longs for tradeable rallies: 5584, 5406, 5316, 5225 and 4270. None of these levels are guaranteed to hit but I want to give you an idea of where I will test the buyside. Otherwise, there is every chance that we may rally to 6100/6200 before a meaningful correction ensues. Today, I will continue to be a strong buyer from 5762/5778 with the same 5749 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally higher to 5873/5889 with a wider 5911 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If these views change, I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Since making a new two-month low at 1.0761 last Wednesday, the Euro has traded sideways to higher. As long as the Euro can hold this low then given how oversold the market is I expect a short-term rally. I am still long of 1.0830 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. There is no doubt that the Euro is severely oversold and due at least a bounce to offset its oversold condition. I will leave my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still short the Dollar from last week at a price of 103.95 with the same 103.50 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 104.75 while leaving my 105.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX gapped higher before holding onto most of Monday’s gains as the market traded sideways before a late rally into the New York close. I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level 19700/19800 with a higher 19905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range on Monday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 8350/8420 with a now higher 8485 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8305.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow gapped higher yesterday before trading sideways for most of Monday’s session and I am still flat. Ahead of next week’s election I have no interest in pressing the downside of the market. I will now raise my buy level to 42850/42100 with a higher 41695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 42360.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX missed yesterday’s sell range by just 50 points before falling 200 from its afternoon high into the close and I am still flat. The NDX has resistance from 20630/20790 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 20905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 19910/20070 with a higher 19795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 20505. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20185. If these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market opened below Monday’s buy level for a 132.50 long position before rallying to my 133.10 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.80/132.60 with the same 130.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the yield on the Bund being so low I have no interest in shorting the market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
All year Gold rallies then consolidates before making a new high then rinse and repeat. However, with Gold up 30% so far this year you have to wonder given how overbought the market is how further can Gold run without a meaningful correction. Gold has resistance from 2790/2810 where I will be a small seller with a 2824 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2775. I would rather wait for a correction before setting a new long position. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver from last week at a price of 33.90 with the same 34.60 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 33.00 while leaving my 31.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments