U.S Equity Markets have reversed all of last Wednesday’s one-day reversal, closing at new highs for the year. These moves higher saw both the Dollar and Treasury Yields crushed. Ten-Year Treasuries are now trading at 3.80%. Both Gold and Bitcoin have surged last week. Meanwhile, Oil closed flat following a quiet trading week.
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 270 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1735 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.14% higher at a price of 4781.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 111 points higher for a 0.3% gain at a price of 37,656.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 16,906.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.42% lower at a price of 33,539.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 1.2% lower.
The Euro closed 1.2% higher at $1.1110.
The British Pound closed 1.1% higher at 1.2798.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.1% closing at $141.65.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 1.90.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 3.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower 3.80%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.24% lower at $73.83 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.4% higher at $2078.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories and the latest Trade Balance. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Last Wednesday massive Downside Key Day Reversal again proved to be a one-day wonder. This is the fifth time in 2023 that large Key Day Reversals have attracted aggressive buying helping the S&P to close at new highs for the year. The S&P is now within touching distance of its all-time high at 4818 while both the Dow and NDX have made new all-time highs, Since the October 2022 low, the S&P is up 33% while the Technology stocks are higher by over 66%. This has been an incredible move higher resulting in the most overbought readings for the stock markets ever. It is funny that markets can stay overbought for weeks, yet one down day like we saw on Wednesday saw the 15-minute S&P chart oversold. Overall, I am still bullish the S&P but given how overbought we are, I would like to see a decent correction to the 14 Day EMA (4670) and the 30 EMA at 4574 before putting on a macro long-position. The main premise is that such a pullback following a 14-month markup then works off heavily overbought conditions to then offer a technical long entry opportunity. Nothing matters until it does. The Yield inversion is being ignored. This large inversion implies that a recession is coming in America and is one of the main reasons why the Dollar has fallen over 1.5% in the last week. History tells us that new highs can happen first before it all falls apart as occurred in 2007. RSI readings above 75 are not healthy and is one of the main reasons why I cannot justify a long position at current levels. Thankfully we caught the whole of last Wednesday’s move lower having no T/P level on my 4774 short position before covering this trade at 4695. This trade has saved the month after a difficult few weeks. Since Thursday’s Daily Commentary, the S&P has generated 160 points and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 4798/4820 with a 4835 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have no T/P level on this position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro has surged since my last update, trading at 1.1135 as I go to press. The Euro is getting close to being short-term overbought as shown by the 14-Day RSI which closed at 68 last night. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.1180/1.1250 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 1.1315 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
Wrong! I was stopped out of my 102.80 average long position at 101.95 and I am now flat. Ahead of the long weekend I will stay flat the Dollar until I return on Tuesday morning. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX has traded in a narrow range over the past few days and I am still flat. I will stay flat the DAX until Tuesday’s Daily Commentary. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE re-opened yesterday before again trading in a narrow range. The FTSE has resistance from 7820/7900 where I will be a strong seller with an 8005 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7765. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 37390-sell level before selling off to my 37195 T/P level and I am still flat as I have not touched the Dow Market this week. The Dow continues to trade overbought as shown by the 14-Day RSI which closed at a 77-print last night. Although the Dow may make further new all-time highs today and tomorrow, I cannot justify a long position at these elevated levels. Therefore, I will continue to be a seller of rallies. The Dow has further resistance from 37950/38250 where I will be a strong seller with a wider 38505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 37690.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The pace of the NDX rally has slowed in comparison to both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Despite this underperformance, the NDX has traded the whole of Thursday’s sell range for a now 16885 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 16730 while leaving my 16105 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund rallied to my second sell level at 138.20 for a now 137.85 average short position. I will leave my 139.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 137.30. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold never came close to my buy range before rallying $60, trading at 2078 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 2035/2050 with a higher 2019 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Despite Gold trading close to all-time highs, Silver continues to underperform. To put this weakness into context, Silver’s all time high occurred in May 2011 at a price of 51.10. I am still long Silver from two weeks ago at an average price of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. This morning, Silver is trading unchanged at 24.30. I will continue to have no stop on this position. In my opinion, Silver is one of the cheapest asset classes in Global Markets at this time.
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