U.S. Equity Markets closed higher on Tuesday after the initial downside seen amid the release of the November US CPI figures unwound through the session. The Core CPI figures rose as expected — 0.3% M/M and 4.0% Y/Y — with upside coming from used vehicles and trucks in addition to a pick-up in shelter inflation; the headline M/M rose 0.1% (above exp. 0.0%), while the headline Y/Y lifted 3.1% as expected. The latest CPI figures are unlikely to see any last-minute changes to the Fed’s Dot Plot due to be released this evening. Meanwhile, the strong 30yr Treasury auction (first stop-through since June) later in the session supported the recovery in stocks into the close. It is worth noting that the NDX led the gains, while the Russell 2k small-cap index (which has been benefiting the most lately from the pricing of Fed easing) underperformed, closing flat. Fed pricing sits more hawkish to pre-data levels with 110bps of cuts priced across 2024 now vs 117bps before the data, with the first fully priced cut still remaining for May. Treasury yields are lower by a few bps in the belly and long end with the 2yr yield little changed. The Dollar Index saw modest losses, with the Japanese Yen seeing the biggest strength in the G10 space, but still tame vs. the moves seen in recent sessions as the currency finds its footing to the fluid Bank of Japan outlook. Sterling failed to benefit from the Dollar’s weakness after soft UK wage figures ramped dovish Bank of England pricing for 2024 ahead of the meeting on Thursday. In commodities, oil prices tumbled to their lowest since June, with the downside beginning late in the European morning and carrying through into the energy settlement in lack of an obvious catalyst aside from the usual global demand headwinds. Oil ended Tuesday with a 4% loss while Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 110 points yesterday and is now ahead by 622 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.46% higher at a price of 4643.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points higher for a 0.48% gain at a price of 36,577.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.82% higher at a price of 16,354.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.25% higher at a price of 32,926.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0785.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2531.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% closing at $145.82.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 2.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points lower at 3.98%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4% lower at $68.61 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $1978.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. GDP which came in below expectations with a fall of 0.3%. Next, we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. This is followed by PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the latest FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Fighting these extreme rallies in Global Equity Markets over the past three weeks is hazardous as the extremes get even more extreme. The big question is how far this rally can extend before we see a meaningful correction. If it is like the autumn of 2019 then it will never stop this year. If it plays out like 1999 ahead of Y2K then we should see one dip occur over the coming days. I suppose the only real chance of a decent sell-off is a change to the liquidity situation. There is only one person who change this and that is Fed Chair Powell in his press conference at 7.30 pm. Signal charts are as fried to the upside as I have mentioned continuously over the past two weeks. However, whatever Powell says this evening may be short lived as we have the Quadruple Expiration on Friday which tends to be bullish for the S&P. There is no doubt that the stock market is rigged to the upside especially since QE was introduced in 2009. Much more money is to be made by being long the market which is pretty much what Tradernoble has done since I started this Daily Commentary over 10 years ago in February 2013. However, there are times when I get stubborn with short positing as I am now. By and large my strategy of sell with a tight T/P level has worked well. Yesterday, I was unlucky with my latest 4619 average short position as my 4605 T/P level just missed before the market rallied over 40 Handles, stopping me out of short position at 4642. Subsequently, the S&P rallied after the close. I emailed my Platinum Members to go shot again at a price of 4647. I will add to this position at 4667 with a wider 4681 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Internally the market is extremely weak as yet again the McClellan Oscillator fell, closing at +53 last night. If this was a healthy market the MO would be north of +150. I will have a T/P level on this position at 4630. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro from last Tuesday at an average rate of 1.0830 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market continues to trade in a 30-point range. This morning, the Dollar is trading lower at 103.95. We have strong resistance from 104.50/105.10 where I will be a seller with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 102.50/103.20 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. Last night the 14-Day RSI closed again at 84. There have only been two occasions when the RSI was higher. In 2000 and 2018. Perhaps we will see further new highs, but also potentially bad news or at least dip of size coming. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 16870/17000 with the same wider 17115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 16710.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the market hit my 7600-sell level before trading lower to my 7555 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 7590/7660 with the same 7715 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well but like any short position triggered over the past few weeks you must be quick to take any gain. The Dow hit my 36530-sell level with a post 36612 CPI spike before selling off to my revised 36380 T/P level and I am now flat. There is no end in sight to the elevated RSI, closing at 80 last night. Ahead of PPI this afternoon and the Fed this evening I will again be a seller of the Dow on any further rally to 36680/36930 with a higher 37105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX call worked well yesterday. After CPI was released the NDX rose to my 16305-sell level before falling 130 points. This move lower enabled me to cover this position at my revised 16220 T/P level. Subsequently, the NDX surged 150 points into the close and is now less than 2% from all-time highs. This move higher was helped by a further 5% fall in the VIX to a new four-year low. After the close I emailed my Platinum Members to go short the NDX again at a price of 16372. I will add to this position at 16522 with a now higher 16605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level at 16240 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund was rallying as I posted yesterday’s Daily Commentary. I am now short at a price of 135.30 with a now higher 134.70 T/P level. I will add to this position at 136.00. I will have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 136.55. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Overnight Gold sold off to my 1974 buy level before rallying to my revised 1980 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has short-term support below from 1953/1968 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 1939 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver ended last week with a 2% fall. I am still long at an average rate of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. Given how bullish I am on Silver, I will now cancel any stop on this position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments