US Equity Markets saw plenty of choppy trading yesterday before finishing in positive territory. Gains were capped after fading the initial rally that was spurred by dovish comments from Fed’s Waller who talked up the potential for rate cuts next year whilst pushing back on the need for more hikes. This fuelled further upside in treasuries with notable bull steepening, while it added to the month-end selling pressure for the U.S. Dollar. The Dollar was pressured and the DXY fell below 103.00 to its lowest since mid-August following dovish comments from Fed hawk Waller who is “increasingly confident” policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%, while he added that there are good economic arguments that if inflation was to continue falling for several more months, then you could lower the policy rate. Furthermore, the data releases were mixed as US Consumer Confidence rose and was better than expected, while Richmond Fed largely disappointed. European Markets closed lower following another session that saw little or no volatility. Bank of England Member Haskel said labour market tightness will need higher rates for longer to get inflation sustainably back to the target, while Ramsden said the UK economy has been more resilient in 2023 than forecast and thinks the OBR has taken a slightly more positive view on some judgements. Ramsden added that challenging to squeeze out services inflation poses the greatest risk of persistence and rates will need to be restrictive for some time. Meanwhile, ECB Member Nagel said rate hikes are not necessarily over and they would have to hike again if the inflation outlook worsened. Nagel added the inflation outlook is encouraging, but core shows dynamics continue to be strong, while he added it is premature to discuss rate cuts and prefers to err on the side of caution. German coalition leaders are to meet this evening regarding the budget crisis, according to Reuters citing sources. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.07% higher while Gold surged, finishing Tuesday with a gain of 1.44%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 211 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1398 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.10% higher at a price of 4554.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points higher for a 0.24% gain at a price of 35,416.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.30% higher at a price of 16,010.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.30% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.12% lower at a price of 33,408.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.48% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0981.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2684.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.8% closing at $147.52.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.50%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.17%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.35%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.07% higher at $76.41 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $2012.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Mortgage Approvals, Consumer Credit and Money Supply at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. This is followed by German CPI at 1.00 pm. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. GDP, Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the Beige Book.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the American Indexes closing flat to lower yesterday, the VIX reversed an earlier spike to close flat at a price of 12.70. This is the third consecutive trading session that the VIX has closed with a 12 Handle. It is incredible to note that the S&P has closed flat to higher for 37 consecutive Monday’s which is an outrageous statistic. Both the $BPSPX RSI (82) and $NYSI suggest an imminent sell-off as mentioned at length in yesterday’s commentary. However, when you look at both the FTSE and DAX both of these markets are trading ‘’heavy’’ with lower highs. One chart that stood out to me yesterday is the fact that U.S. Equity Markets are at extreme peaks versus Global Equities. This chart shows that at current prices we are exceeding the 1960s, 70s and both the Nifty 50 and 2000s Tech bubble. When I see a chart like this, I say that this is ridiculous and not sustainable. However, the one question is how is this a tradeable chart as it has been at extreme levels for years with no signs of letting up? Still, we have no 5 EMA reconnect and the longer this record streak continues meaning it is likely to happen sooner rather than later. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well as the market hit my 4566-sell level before falling 20 Handles, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 4556.50 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 4570/4587 with a higher 4601 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 4510/4525 where I will be a small buyer with a 4499 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Despite the 14-Day RSI closing at an overbought 71, the Euro managed to test the key 1.10 resistance area. As a result, I am now short at a price of 1.1006. I will add to this position at 1.1066 while leaving my 1.1105 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.0960. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar closed 0.50% lower yesterday. This move lower saw my second buy level at 102.80 triggered, for a now 103.10 average long position. I will leave my 102.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while lowering my T/P level to 103.45. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change as the DAX again traded in a narrow range. It was the correct decision to stay away from the DAX last week as the market surprisingly has had an extremely small trading range. The DAX seems tired to me having rallied 1400 points in just over two weeks. We have resistance from 16110/16200 where I will be a small seller with a tight 16275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the FTSE finally sold off to my 7410 buy level before rallying to my revised 7448 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE continues to underperform the American Indexes which is always a warning for the stronger Indexes. The FTSE has support below from 7300/7360 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7235 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Unfortunately, the Dow missed my 35520 second sell level by just one point before having a small sell-off into the New York close. I am still short the Dow from last week at 35280. With the 14-Day RSI closing slightly higher at 72 last night, I am comfortable in being short. I will continue to look to add to this position at 33520 with the same tight 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 35210. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX missed my 16040 sell level by eight points before having a small fall into the close and I am still flat. I will not chase the NDX lower. I will now raise my sell level to 16070/16230 with the same 16305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
The Bund hit a low yesterday at 131.11(- 21 points above my 130.90 initial buy level) before closing higher at 131.80. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 130.50/131.20 with a higher 129.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold surged yesterday, closing at new highs for the year above $2040. There is still room for Gold to move higher as we are far from being short-term overbought. The $2000 which acted as strong resistance for all of 2023, should be supportive on any subsequent tests. I will now raise my buy level to 2000/2015 with a higher 1989 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
This is the longest time that I have an ‘’Open’’ position. I decided after seven weeks to exit my large 24.05 long position at my revised 24.83 T/P level, and I am now flat. Silver has support below from 23.70/24.40 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25.10.
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