U.S. Equity Markets closed little changed from Friday as the market continues to consolidate last week’s impressive gains ahead of CPI which will be released at 1.30 pm. The latest New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations showed a slight decline in both the one- and five-year expectations. The Dollar closed unchanged while Oil and Gold both closed higher following last week’s aggressive sell-off in both commodities. Treasury Markets traded in a choppy fashion before closing unchanged amid corporate supply and dovish consumer data. European Markets closed higher. The Bank of England’s Mann was speaking yesterday. In his speech he said: Research points to increased inflation, increased inflation persistence, and increased inflation volatility associated with climate shocks, policies, and spillovers. Carbon price shocks lead to more inflation persistence and then oil price shocks. Redistribution of revenues from carbon taxes or emission certificate auctions have economic effects of direct interest to central banks. Sterling closed slightly higher on his remarks. In Asia, all eyes are on USD/JPY to see if we can break ‘’152’’ which would be a new 32-year high.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 270 points yesterday and is now ahead by 980 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% lower at a price of 4411.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher for a 0.16% gain at a price of 34,337.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.3% lower at a price of 15,482.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.75% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.05% higher at a price of 32,585.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0696.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 122.72.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.64.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.71%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 4.32%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.63%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.41% higher at $78.26 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% higher at $1946.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00 am. This is followed by a speech from Fed Member Willams at 8.00 am. Next, we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Surveys at 10.00 am. At the same time, we have Euro-Zone GDP, followed by a speech from Fed Member Jefferson at 10.30 am. At 11.00 am we have the NFIB Business Optimism Index and CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Goolsbee at 5.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Buying the dip in the S&P continues to pay dividends despite bears getting more and more frustrated with the upward price action. Even though the S&P is short-term overbought, structurally the market is still oversold. Both Fund Managers and CTAs are caught short and will have to capitulate at some stage. If this scenario unfolds, we could see a melt-up in the market into year-end. If it was not for the Israeli war the S&P would have rallied sooner. Yesterday, my S&P plan worked well as the market treaded lower to my 4393-buy level before rallying to my 4407 T/P level and I am now flat. If we get a benign CPI print this afternoon, then the S&P could well rally further. The S&P has strong support from 4378/4393. I will again be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 4369 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Although the Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday, the Euro did hit my 1.0705 T/P level on last week’s 1.0660 long position, and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0590/1.0660 with the same 1.0535 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.0705. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still flat the Dollar as the market again traded in a narrow range. This morning the Dollar is trading higher at 105.95. We have resistance from 106.50/107.20 where I will be a strong seller with a tight 107.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 106.05. I no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
Frustratingly, the DAX missed my initial 15180 buy level by 40 points before having a nice 120-point rally and I am still flat. Ahead of U.S. CPI, I will now raise my buy level slightly to 15130/15210, with a higher 15045 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE closed above 7400 last night and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 7300/7370 with a higher 7245 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the negative price action on Friday, I have no interest in being short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow missed my initial 34450 sell level with a 34405 high print. Subsequently, we fell 80 points into the close and I am still flat. Ahead of CPI this afternoon, I will now raise my Dow sell level to 34570/34830 with a higher 35005 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 34420. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 15410-buy level before rallying to my revised 15495 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the 10% rally in the NASDAQ over the past seven sessions, structurally the NDX is still severely oversold on a long-term basis. The NDX has support from 15250/15400, where I will again be a strong buyer with the same 15135 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has resistance from 15670/15830 where I will be a small seller with a higher 15965 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy level. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 128.40/129.20 with the same 127.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied 0.5% yesterday which was no surprise given last week’s rout. Gold has support below from 1910/1925 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1899 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at 24.05. Silver has traded in a narrow 100-point range with very small daily ranges over the past few weeks. I am extremely bullish of Silver while frustrated that Silver has not followed the price of Gold higher. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading unchanged at 22.30. I am encouraged by the fact the despite the 2% fall in Gold since Thursday that Silver continues to trade with a 22 Handle. Silver has strong support below at 21.80. I will now add to my existing position on any move lower to this pivot level. If this price is triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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