U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed yesterday following another boring trading session. Both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 closed higher for their eighth and ninth consecutive trading session respectively. Meanwhile, the VIX closed lower for a tenth consecutive trading session with a 2.45% fall at a price of 14.45. The U.S. trade deficit grew larger than expected in September as it widened 4.9% month over month. The gap in goods and services has now reached $61.5 billion, which was significantly higher than the expected $59.5 billion. The unadjusted value of imports rose to the highest level since February while the value of exports rose to the highest level in over a year. American demand for foreign goods has remained strong due to a resilient job market. However, recent jobs and unemployment data showed notable deterioration that is expected to weigh on consumer demand for foreign goods and services. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee has doubled down on the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach to lowering inflation. He emphasised that the central bank should not be “pre-committing” to any rate decision prior to its meeting. Goolsbee also stressed the importance of solely focusing on inflation levels while deliberating rather than worrying about economic and job growth. The Chicago Fed president noted he still sees a “golden path” to a soft landing as recent labour statistics have cooled. Consumer borrowing rose modestly in September, falling in line with the median estimate. According to the Federal Reserve, revolving credit such as credit cards rose $3.1 billion while non-revolving credit like student loans and vehicle purchases grew $5.9 billion. Unadjusted quarterly figures revealed a $28 billion decrease in outstanding student loan debt. This decline is largely due to the Department of Education’s student debt relief and the resumption of federal loan repayments. Plus, a separate report yesterday showed credit-card balances surged $154 billion year over year, marking the largest annual increase in over two decades. Nike (NKE) has filed two new federal lawsuits aimed at rivals New Balance and Skechers (SKX) over its proprietary footwear technology. The lawsuits accused the rival shoemakers of infringing patents related to Nike’s “Flyknit” technology. The newest accusations come after Nike previously sued Adidas, PUMA, and Lululemon (LULU) over the same technology. The suits with Adidas and Puma have since been settled while its case with Lululemon wages on. Nike has requested an unspecified amount of money for damages and for a court order to block New Balance and Skechers from infringing on its patents. New Balance refuted the claims, saying it “fully respects competitors’ intellectual property rights” and claims Nike does not own exclusive rights to the design. European Markets closed higher. Recession concerns continue to grow for Germany as its Industrial Output declined for the fourth consecutive month in September. Germany’s production fell 1.4% month over month, coming in lower than the 0.1% prediction. According to the statistics office, the decline was largely due to struggles in the auto, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors. Manufacturers continue to face headwinds from costly energy, higher global interest rates, and a slowdown in China. A faltering industrial production and a quarterly contraction to Gross Domestic Product have placed Europe’s largest economy on the brink of a mild recession. Shoppers in the United Kingdom are feeling the impact of persistently high inflation and the central bank’s rate hikes. Consumer spending grew at 2.6% for September, down from the 4.6% growth in August. This marked the slowest growth in spending in over a year. The slump in spending has raised concerns of a spillover into holiday spending. According to a survey from Barclays, 37% of households expect to spend less on Christmas this year. Bars and pubs provided an exception to the pullback as spending increased 5.9% due to fans flocking to watch the Rugby World Cup. Elsewhere, Oil fell a further 2.29%, to its lowest price since July, while Gold closed 1% lower despite a weaker Dollar.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 191 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher at a price of 4382.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points lower for a 0.12% loss at a price of 34,112.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.1% higher at a price of 15,313.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.26% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.33% lower at a price of 32,166.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0708.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 122.86.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $151.01.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.61%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.24%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.52%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.29% lower at $75.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% lower at $1950.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have a speech from ECB Member Lane at 8.10 am and the release of the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and a 30-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde is speaking at 5.30 pm, followed by Fed Chair Powell at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the S&P closing higher for the eighth consecutive trading session, the weekly trading range has been the smallest we have seen in many years. To put into context, the last time the S&P rose for nine consecutive trading sessions was back in 2004. U.S. Regional Banks were battered again yesterday following Tuesday’s FHLB news. Yesterday the S&P hit an afternoon low at 4359, missing my 4350-buy level before rallying 20 Handles into the close. I am still expecting the 50 Day Moving Average at 4343 to offer support on any initial test. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 4328/4345 with a lower 4315 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong resistance at the 100 MA which comes in at 4403 and the 20 MA which comes in at 4395. As I am still flat the S&P, I will continue to be a seller from 4395/4412 with the same 4429 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4359. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 4381.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly, the Euro missed yesterday’s 1.0650 initial buy level by 8 points before rallying to sit at 1.0710 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1.0590/1.0660 while leaving my 1.0535 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still flat the Dollar as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Ahead of the long weekend in the U.S. I will leave my 104.40/105.10 buy level unchanged with the same 103.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX surged yesterday, and I am still flat as my buy range was never threatened. Despite the awful economic data, the DAX continues to defy logic by attracting buyers on every dip. Today, I will raise my buy level to 15000/15080 with a higher 14935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The boring sideways price action in the FTSE shows no sign of ending. The FTSE has traded in a 60-point range all week which is the lowest volatility for the FTSE in many years. I am still flat the FTSE. I will now lower my buy level to 7250/7320 with a lower 7195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7365. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow again missed my sell range. I will continue to be a small seller on any further rise to 34330/34550 with the same tight 34705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 34185. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX closed higher for the ninth consecutive trading session. Microsoft closed at a new all-time high yesterday. We are now back in a silly bullish mode again with the NDX having rallied 1400 points in these nine days. A number of technical signals are showing lots of negative divergences which is warning sign, and it is the main reason why I have a small, short position on board. However, with CTAs and Asset Mangers short there is still plenty of scope for the market to rally hard into year-end once we get whatever sell-off may transpire ahead of the Government shutdown next week. The NDX last rose for 10 consecutive trading sessions in November 2021 so we will see if this record is matched tomorrow. I am still short at 15220. I will continue to look to add to this position at 15380 while leaving my 15505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 15150. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market again just missed yesterday’s sell range. Ahead of the weekend, I will now raise my sell level to 131.45/132.15 with a higher 132.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 130.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite a stronger Euro and weaker Dollar, Gold sold off to my second buy level at 1951 for a now 1958.50 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1967 while leaving my 1939 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at 24.05. Silver has traded in a narrow 100-point range with very small daily ranges over the past few weeks. I am extremely bullish of Silver while frustrated that Silver has not followed the price of Gold higher. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading unchanged at 22.55 despite Gold closing lower by 1% yesterday. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any calls not hit today, that subsequently get triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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