U.S. Indexes had a nice reversal to the upside late yesterday. The NASDAQ 100 led the gains, closing higher by 0.46%. However, concerns that the U.S. Government will shut down next Monday see Futures Markets lower by 0.75% this morning. Following last week’s aggressive investors around the globe are turning their attention to inflation trends this week, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) Price Index reading expected on Friday. The core PCE inflation reading, which is the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of inflation, is predicted to maintain a slow descent, with a projected annual growth of just 3.8%. This dip in inflation rates aligns with the current global economic trend. Meanwhile, overseas, the inflation data from Germany and the broader Euro-Zone will bring the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent decision to elevate interest rates into sharper focus. his week, investors will gain significant insights into consumer spending behaviours as Costco (COST), Nike (NKE), CarMax (KMX), and Carnival Cruise (CCL) announce their earnings. Any indications of a downturn from these companies could suggest that customers are reluctant to spend on bulk goods, luxury products, or vacations, indicating a tightening of consumer budgets. The projections for the upcoming year could be of even greater importance to investors, as these could provide a telling glimpse into the future state of economic conditions. Any adverse signals from these companies could imply a potential slowdown in consumer spending and the broader economy. On Main Street, investors will need to pay attention to the latest economic indicators coming from the major Federal Reserve banks this week. The manufacturing and service sector data from the Chicago, Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed will provide insights into the health of these sectors. These indicators are vital as they reflect the business conditions and can signal potential economic shifts. But what could prove to be the most pivotal data release this week is the final gross domestic product reading for the second quarter. Any downward revisions to the reading or prior quarters would indicate that recent perceived strength from the economy was only temporary. Additional information about the housing market is set to be unveiled this week, with the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the new home sales data for August, both due this afternoon. Investors should also pay close attention to the latest consumer confidence figures, also scheduled for release as well later Tuesday. Shifting gears, it’s essential that investors keep a vigilant eye on the energy sector this week, (given the ongoing rising trend in gasoline prices) which could continue to be a major market-moving catalyst. Lastly, numerous speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled throughout the week, potentially offering valuable insights into the prospective direction of monetary policy as we move towards 2024. European Markets closed, led by the 1% fall in the German DAX. In Asia, the Nikkei closed this morning lower by 1.02%. This is the third consecutive lower close for the Japanese Equity Market. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.39% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Monday with a 0.4% loss.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 223 points yesterday and is now down by 303 points for September, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.40% higher at a price of 4337.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points higher for a 0.13% gain at a price of 34,006.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.46% higher at a price of 14,768.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.64% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.02% lower at a price of 32,343.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.33% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0594.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 122.11.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $148.85.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 2.80%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 4.34%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.53%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.39% lower at $89.68 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% lower at $1916.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 2.00 pm we have the U.S. Housing Price Index. Next, we have Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P made a low at 4298 shortly after I posted yesterday before spending the rest of the session trading sideways to higher. In the last 20 minutes the S&P accelerated into the close. This move higher saw my 4341 T/P level triggered on Friday’s late 4319 long position. In my opinion the S&P is setting itself up for a massive year-end rally. It is a long time since I have seen my technical signals so oversold. The 14-Day RSI for the $BPSPX closed at 18 last night while the $NYSI is now maximum oversold following this morning’s updated chart. History tells us not to be short against this background. The negatives towards a rally starting are higher Bond Yields where 10 -year Treasuries closed last night at a 16-year high at 4.54% and the Dollar which has had 10 consecutive green candles. I cannot remember a period when the Dollar has risen for 10 straight weeks. This move lower sees the RSI for the S&P at a lower level than we had in September 2022. The S&P fell for another week before a 30% rally commenced. This morning the S&P is trading at 4311. I have bought the S&P here at this price. I will add to this position at 4293 with a lower 4279 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level at 4336 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The stronger Dollar saw the Euro fall 0.4% yesterday. This move lower saw my second buy level at 1.0590 executed for a now 1.0621 average long position. The Euro has now fallen over 700 points in the past three months. This is an enormous move resulting in the Daily Sentiment Index closing last night with a nine print. History tells us that single digit DSI prints leads to strong rallies. I will leave my 1.0525 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.0675. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
Yesterday’s Dollar rally saw my sell range hit and I am now short at 106.00. I will add to the position at 106.60 while leaving my 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 105.50. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
After the DAX traded lower to my 15410-buy level, we had a small bounce to my revised 14555 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, the DAX traded heavy for the rest of the session and is opening lower this morning at a price of 15350. The DAX is now severely oversold, has support from 15200/15270 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 15535 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
After the FTSE hit my initial 7620 buy level I had too many open positions. I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 7638 and I am still flat. This morning, the FTSE is opening lower at 7592. We have strong support from 7480/7550 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 7815 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow sold off into the close hitting my second buy level at 33800 for a now 33910 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 34060. I will leave my stop at a ‘’Closing Price’’ at 33595. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No change. I am still long from last week at an average rate of 14765 with the same 14910 T/P level. I will leave my 14595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Wrong! I was stopped out of my 130.05 average long position at 129.25 and I am now flat. THE Bund is oversold having fallen over 800 points in the past few weeks. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 127.90/128.60 with a lower 127.35 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat Gold. Given the strength of the 1960/2000 resistance area I am reluctant to chase the price of Gold higher. Meanwhile, I have no interest in being short despite the strong resistance above. Therefore, I will stay flat until we see how the price action plays out.
Silver Rolling Contract
Despite the stronger Dollar, Silver continues to hold the 23.00 support area. I am still long at 24.05 and I will leave my 24.25 T/P level unchanged. I have had this position for over two weeks now which is too long and I will reassess if this level is triggered. Meanwhile, I will now raise my stop to a ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 22.45. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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