Despite a rising Dollar and higher Treasury Yields, US. Equity markets got the week off to a positive start led by the 1.18% gain in the NASDAQ 100. As the earnings season winds to a close, investors’ focus will now turn to the state of the consumer, with major Big Box retailers reporting second-quarter results this week. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), TJX Companies (TJX), and Ross Stores (ROST) are all set to report. The results should provide an update on the health of household balance sheets and consumer spending habits. With analysts’ expectations lower across the board this earnings season, investors should be paying closer attention to what these retailers have to say regarding margins, inventory, and their outlook for the rest of the year. Continuing with the consumer theme, the latest update on Retail Sales is scheduled for release this afternoon, with July’s figures expected to surpass those of June. Elsewhere, this week’s manufacturing sector data round is due, featuring reports from both the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes. Analysts expect both regional indexes to indicate a continued economic contraction as demand persistently slows. Shifting gears, investors are keenly anticipating the Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in July. After a pause in rate hikes in June, the Fed decided to raise rates again, lifting the current benchmark rate to 5.25%. The details of the Minutes will be scrutinised for signs of increasing disagreement among Fed officials regarding the future direction of the central bank’s policies. Later in the month, investors will shift their focus to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2023, scheduled from August 24 to 26. European Markets closed mixed. In Europe this week, the major highlight will be the release of the U.K.’s inflation data for July, scheduled for Wednesday. June’s inflation figures showed an unexpected drop which came as a pleasant surprise for many, but the U.K. continues to wrestle with the challenge of keeping elevated inflation from becoming firmly embedded in its economy. In Asia, additional economic data from China will provide insights into the country’s domestic economic situation amidst the ongoing deflationary trend. Two critical indicators – Retail sales and Industrial Production data – will garner the most attention and shed light on consumer spending and manufacturing activity. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.82% lower while Gold closed fell 0.3% which was no surprise given the strength of the Dollar.
To mark my 2850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 230 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1730 points for August following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.58% higher at a price of 4489.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 26 points higher for a 0.08% gain at a price of 35,308.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.18% higher at a price of 15,205.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.09% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.27% lower at a price of 32,059.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0915.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.26.78.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $145.48.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.65%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 4.57%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.20%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.82% lower at $82.51 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% lower at $1907.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the release of U.K. Employment including Average Earnings at 7.00 am. This is followed by German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Retail Sales and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
Cash S&P 500
Despite a downgrade for China the S&P reversed overnight losses to close higher by 0.58% as yet again the buy the dip won the day. This move higher saw the S&P close above its 5EMA and 8 MA as it looks more and more likely that last week’s test of the 50 Day MA proved significant. The bottom line is Bears could not make anything happen having had every chance especially with the NDX closing below its 50 Day MA last Friday. Is this the end of the August correction? Too much can still happen, but the base minimum target was always the 50 Day MA which we hit on Thursday. The 50 MA has held twice now, suggesting we should rally further from here. However, the seasonal chart still suggests lower prices into next week ahead of the inevitable Labour Day rally. My S&P plan worked well as the market hit my 4449-buy level before rallying to my 4466 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the S&P is trading higher at 4495. We have short-term support from 4455/4472 where I will be a small buyer with a 4439 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Shortly after I posted early yesterday morning the Euro traded lower to my 1.0940 buy level for a now 1.0970 average long position. The Euro hit a low at 1.0875 before bouncing 45 points into the New York close. I will leave my 1.0875 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged on this position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1020. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar traded higher to my sell range and I am now short at 103.30. I will add to this position at 103.80 while leaving my 104.20 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 102.85. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Even though the DAX reversed morning lows, to close higher on the day, I am still nervous in buying the market. The DAX is heavy, has support from 15600/15700 where I will continue to be a small buyer with a 15495 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite my concerns I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
Frustratingly, the FTSE just missed my 7470-buy level by a few points before having a nice rally and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 7410/7470 with the same 7355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7515.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 34900/35100 with a higher 34795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the Dow trading 800 points above its 50 Day MA, I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The positive divergences that I have seen over the last few days finally led to the NDX rallying yesterday, closing higher by 1.18%. With the 50-Day Moving Average coming in at 15165, the NDX closed just above this key support level. As I mentioned yesterday with both $BPNDX and Apple extremely oversold I have no interest in being short as I continue to hold my 15225 long position. I will now add to this trade at 14950 with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 15280. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
No Change. I am still long from last Friday at 131.45 with the same 132.05 T/P level. I will continue to add to this position on any further move lower to 130.75. Meanwhile, I will leave my 130.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
After Gold traded lower to my 1904 buy level we had a quick $10 rally, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 1910 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold is getting oversold and is due a more sustained bounce. We have short-term support from 1880/1895 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1869 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver had a bad week, falling over 3% since I last marked prices on August 4th. I am still long at an average rate of 24.20 with the same 24.70 T/P level. Even though Silver is trading at 22.60 this morning I will continue to have no stop on this position. If this view changes I will email my Platinum Members
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