Despite markets only open for a half-day, Equity Markets continued to make new highs for 2023 with all three American Indexes closing higher. The NDX led the gains closing higher by 0.19%. As we approach the pinnacle of summer, as well as the Fourth of July holiday, many investors are gearing up to reassess their portfolios and make strategic decisions for the months ahead. Others are following the old investment adage, “Sell in May and go away.” (This refers to the seasonal nature of the market and its historically weaker period that spans May to October.) While I am all for taking a nice, relaxing holiday, investors should realise that opportunities for value are always present. The stock market does not shut down for the summer, the returns just may not be as strong as the first half of the year. According to a recent Bank of America report, the S&P 500 is still up around 65% of the time during this slow-growth period. With that said, it is always good to take some time and reevaluate your holdings and your investment strategy – especially in uncertain times like today. It does not hurt to review what the investment pros are up to either. How did they do in the first half of the year? What are they doing today? What sort of investing strategies are they employing in this market environment? Warren Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s most successful investors, boasts a portfolio that has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 Index. Berkshire Hathaway holds a significant investment in Apple (AAPL), highlighting just how bullish Buffett is on the tech giant. Berkshire’s holdings also include a mix of banking, consumer staples, and oil and gas companies. Overall, his investing strategy is based on value. He finds solid companies with strong potential for growth – and he holds them for the long term. As investors prepare for the second half of the year, diversifying your portfolio across strong market leaders can help you mitigate risk in the face of an uncertain environment. Renaissance Technologies, led by “Quant King” Jim Simons, revolutionised quantitative investing through complex mathematical models and algorithms. The hedge fund’s portfolio showcases remarkable diversification, with more than 3,900 different positions. Simons’ strategy, driven by “statistical arbitrage,” aims to collect returns from various asset classes – from stocks to commodities to the futures market. Investors looking to navigate the market’s ups and downs may consider Renaissance Technologies’ quantitative and diversified approach. Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates stood out during the 2008 financial crisis, thanks to its “all weather” strategy that is designed to perform well in any economic environment. The portfolio reflects a risk-parity approach to asset allocation, with counterweights like the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) and the iShares Core S&P 500 Fund (IVV). Bridgewater also holds “safe haven” assets like gold, with its position in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Investors seeking a balanced and resilient approach may find Bridgewater’s strategy useful in today’s uncertain market environment. Finally, Stanley Druckenmiller is a legendary macroeconomic investor. He has never shied away from bets he truly believes in. His biggest holding is Coupang (CPNG), South Korea’s largest online marketplace. Druckenmiller was one of the early investors in the company, continuing to add to his position ever since, showcasing his belief in the business. Moreover, Druckenmiller positioned his fund to capitalise on the recent artificial-intelligence boom, with significant holdings in Nvidida (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL). Investors looking to get in on emerging trends and industry leaders in the second half of the year could take a similar approach with their portfolios. I hope this gives you an idea of what the largest hedge funds are up to. To put it bluntly, I do not believe in the “sell in May and go away” mantra whatsoever. But I do believe it is a good idea for investors to get into the habit of placing various “benchmarks” throughout the year to reevaluate their portfolios – and to ensure their investing strategy still holds true. By analysing the investment approaches from some of the world’s best investors and incorporating those insights into our own investment strategies, we can navigate today’s volatile market with greater confidence and position ourselves for success. European Markets closed lower. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. Meanwhile the Nikkei fell 1% after making a new 33-year high on Monday. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.47% while Gold ended Monday with a 0.50% gain.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 45 points on the first trading session of July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.12% higher at a price of 4455.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points higher for a 0.03% gain at a price of 34,418.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.19% higher at a price of 15,208.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.98% lower at a price of 33,422.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0907.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.2676.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $144.61.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 4.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 3.85%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.47% higher at $70.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% higher at $1925.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of the German May Trade Balance which came in at EUR 14.6 billion versus 17.5 bn expected. With the U.S. closed for Independence Day the only other data of note is Canadian Manufacturing PMI which will released at 2.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
I am still flat the S&P as the market traded in a narrow range. This is no surprise with most investors taking the week off for the July 4th Holiday. I have written enough as to why I believe the market is overvalued but I am also conscious that any sell-off will be short-lived given the July positive seasonality. The S&P Has resistance from 4462/4480 where I will continue to be a seller with a 4491 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have support from 4410/4425 where I will be a small buyer with a 4399 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long at 1.0900 with a now lower 109.40 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0830 while leaving my 1.0785 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I will not chase the Dollar higher, leaving my 102.00/102.60 buy level unchanged with the same 101.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 103.05.
Cash DAX
The DAX hit a high at 16210 yesterday before falling 120 points into the close. I will now lower my sell level to 16240/16340 with a lower 16415 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded in a narrow range. I do not want to chase the market higher leaving my 7430/7490 buy level unchanged with the same 7385 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will not chase the Dow higher, leaving my 33950/34200 buy level unchanged with the same 33795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied to my 15230-sell level. I am still short as I continue to look to add to this position at 15370 with the same 15505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will raise my T/P to 15115. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
The Bund traded higher to my 133.95 T/P level on my latest 133.50 long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Bund again at 133.20 which was hit this morning. I will add to this position at 132.50 with a lower 131.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 133.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Unfortunately, Gold missed my 1902 buy level with a 1908 low print before rallying to sit at 1926 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 1897/1912 with a higher 1875 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver started July by having a 2% rally. Thankfully, we are now back above $23. I am still long at an average rate of 23.63 with the same no stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.20. If this changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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