U.S. Equity Futures Markets were soft yesterday not helped by the 1% fall in both the Nikkei and European Indexes. Further analysing last week’s Fed pause, it could be brief. First, new projections by the Fed policymakers – the dot plot- suggests this will be the case. The median projection now points to a year-end Fed Funds target range of 5.50% to 5.75%. That implies a 50 bp of additional rate hikes in the second half of the year in contrast to March’s projection for the Fed Funds rate to end the year at 5% to 5.25%, its current target range. Projections for growth, employment and core inflation were also revised higher. Second, the Fed will continue to pause QT by reducing its holdings of securities. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell implied that QT might continue through the end of the year, despite the upcoming reserve drain by the U.S. Treasury. The market is now worried when will the market tightening cycle end for real? The answer to this question was not helped by Powell’s comment that the July Meeting will be a ‘’Live One’’. A lot of good news is now priced into the market so it may be time for some profit-taking over the next couple of weeks. European Markets closed lower. Markets opened lower before we saw steady selling into the close. In Asia, the Nikkei finally had a down day closing lower by 1%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 150 points yesterday and is now ahead by 945 points for June. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.37% lower at a price of 4409.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 108 points lower for a 0.32% loss at a price of 34,299.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.67% lower at a price of 15,083.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.09% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1% lower at a price of 33,370.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0912.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2780.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $142.00.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.51%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 4.49%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 3.77%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.16% higher at $71.44 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $1952.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German PPI at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 4.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Thankfully, we saw a small sell-off in the S&P yesterday. I am still short at 4400 with the same no stop and a T/P level at 4385. If this changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat as the market has traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1020/1.1100 with the same 1.1155 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Euro has short term support from 1.0810/1.0880 where I will be a buyer with a 1.0745 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has short-term support from 101.20/101.80. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 100.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX missed yesterday’s initial sell range by 70 points before falling 150 points off this high and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 16340/16440 with a lower 16505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
Two-year Gilt Yields hit 5% yesterday. This is the highest level since 2008. Surprisingly the FTSE continues to hold in with each daily range narrower than the previous session. I cannot remember a time when the FTSE has had such little volatility. In my opinion the FTSE is expensive. However, I am reluctant to go short. We have short-term support from 7460/7530 where I will be a buyer with a lower 7395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 33750/34000 with the same 33595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX sold off to my 15050 T/P level on my 15200 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 15120/15270 with a 15405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 15110. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 133.35 with the same 133.75 T/P level and 132.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1915/1930 with the same 1899 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver had a nice rally on Friday, closing higher by 1%, to sit at 24.20 as I go to press. I am still long from last week at a price of 23.93. I will continue to look to add to this position ion any move lower to 23.30 with the same no stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 24.90 T/P level unchanged. If this changes I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
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