For the second consecutive trading session Equity Markets reversed afternoon lows by staging a late rally to close on the highs of the day. This is what happens when the Fed added $120bn in bank reserves last week. The move higher saw the VIX fall a further 1%, closing at a new 2020 low at a price of 16.70. We are nearly a third of the way through 2023, and I am willing to bet that if you asked Americans how they are feeling today- “optimistic” probably is not a word they would use. If the central bank does not soon realise that its sole obsession with crushing high inflation is ruining any financial stability the consumer still holds, the economy could be headed for a long, recessionary winter. Within the S&P 500 Index, eight of 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed mixed. ECB President Lagarde said that she had extreme confidence the U.S. would not default on its debt, asserting that it would be a major disaster. Meanwhile, ECB Member Kazaks said a 25-basis point rate hike in May is possible and that at some point it is only natural to reduce the size of rate increases, while Mr Nagel said that expects underlying core inflation to ease before the summer months. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China said it will use structural and aggregate monetary policy tools to shore up its improving economy but admitted that it is not yet fully stable. China’s New Home Prices rose in March at the fastest pace in nearly two years, a strong signal that recent policies to boost economic growth are beginning to work. Finally, the G7 Group of Nations will meet in Japan this week as tensions surrounding China and Taiwan dominate the region’s geopolitical challenges. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.05% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold fall 0.70%.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1272 points for April after closing March with a gain of 6168 points, while finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HEREHERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 4151.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 100 points higher for a 0.30% gain at a price of 33,987.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% higher at a price of 13,087.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.42% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.08% higher at a price of 28,514.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0922.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2375.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $134.46.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.48%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 3.66%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 3.59%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.05% lower at $80.34 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% lower at $1994.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00am, Next, at 10.00 am we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. This is followed by U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB Member Elderson at 2.00 pm and the Fed’s Bowman at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Whatever chance the VIX had of closing higher and the S&P lower was toast after a large buy programme hit the market at 7.00 pm. This coming against a backdrop where the Dollar was stronger. The S&P went vertical into the close with no two-way price discovery. This month is a waiting game with an upward bias as shown by the strong seasonality chart for April. Bulls remain in control as volatility has been removed from the market. This is now one happy and complacent market which in my opinion is dangerous. I am still flat the S&P as the market did not come close to either my buy or sell levels. It is clear that the S&P has strong support from 4112/4127. I will now move my buy level to this area with a higher 4099 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the VIX options expiring tomorrow I will now raise my sell level to 4170/4185 with a higher 4202 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The near 70 print in the 14-Day RSI has seen the Euro fall 170 points since Thursday’s highs. This is probably enough of a fall for now. I will now be a buyer from 1.0800/1.0870 with a 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
Even though the Dollar rose to close at 102.10 last night I will not chase the market from here. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 100.70/101.30 with the same 99.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market rallied to my aggressive 15900 sell level before trading lower to my 15810 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 15950/16050 with a higher 16115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
Cash FTSE
Despite the two-way volatility in the American Indexes the FTSE traded in a narrow range again yesterday. I am still short at 7850. I will continue to look to add to this position at 7920 while leaving my 7975 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. With the FTSE trading at 7895 as I go to press, I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 7815. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 33580/33830 with a higher 33395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Until the Dow breaks and closes below its 50-Day Moving Average (33102) I have no interest in having a short position.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still long from Friday at a price of 13020 with the same 13130 T/P level. I will add to this position at 12870 while leaving my 12795 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
June BUND
The Bund continues to trade heavy as the Yield approaches key resistance at 2.50%. This latest move lower has me long at 133.75. I will add to this position at 133.00 while leaving my 132.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile I will have a 134.35 T/P level on this position.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold missed my 1980 buy level with a 1981 low print before rallying 150 points into the New York. This is the second consecutive trading session the Gold has missed my sell or buy range by less than a $1. Today I will again lower my buy level to 1955/1972 with a lower 1939 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 23.70/24.40 with the same 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
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