Despite the housing market asking the Federal Reserve for patience, Equity Markets surged yesterday as the ramp up into month and Quarter shows no sign of ending. Pretty much any weakness in March has now been wiped out as if the banking crisis never happened. The NDX led yesterday’s move higher as rising bond yields are so far having no effect on tech stocks. The VIX continues its recent sell-off, closing 0.5% lower at a price of 19.02. The 18.50/19.00 is major support, so it will be interesting to see how the VIX handles this key trendline. Within the S&P 500 Index, 10 of 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. The DAX led the European Markets higher as the market is again close to all-time highs. In Asia, Markets were quiet with little or no news across the region. It seems that the last two days sees investors took a break after the savage volatility across all asset classes over the past six weeks. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.86% higher while Gold reversed Wednesday’s losses, closing higher by 1.61%.
To mark my 2750th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 75 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6468 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.57% higher at a price of 4050
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 141 points higher for a 0.43% gain at a price of 32,859.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.91% higher at a price of 12,963.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.09% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.16%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.36% lower at a price of 27,782.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% lower.
The Euro closed 0.5% higher at $1.0901.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.2390.
The Japanese rose 0.1% closing at $132.61.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.36%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 3.52%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.56%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.86% higher at $74.33 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.61% higher at $1984.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we German Retail Sales and U.K. GDP at 7.00 am. This is followed by German Unemployment at 8.55 am. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone CPI and Unemployment. Next, at 1.30 pm we have the all-important U.S. PCE data and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the UoM 5-YEAR Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.00 pm
Cash S&P 500
The S&P continued to build value above Wednesday’s close above its 50 Day Moving Average as yet again shorts have been obliterated. I do not know what rebalancing will be done this evening but as long as the S&P stays above its key Moving Averages sellers are wasting their time. This is especially as Monday sees the start of one of the most bullish months of the year. On top of this when I listen to Fed Members like Kashkari drone on about how the banking crisis will take a long time to resolve it means in my opinion that more and more liquidity is coming via the Central Banks. Inflation will tightening loan standards will slow the economy further which means the rate hiking cycle is now over. Yesterday’s move higher in the S&P saw my 4041 second sell level triggered for a now 4033 average short position. I tried to cover this position after the market dropped to 4033 but it fell shy of my 4026 T/P level. We have had an unbelievable month getting almost every call right in March. I will stay flat hoping that we may see some re-balancing in the S&P especially as the Bank Index again closed lower by 1.50%. There is no doubt more and more banks are in trouble but it is difficult to be short given the amount of QE by the Fed and other Central Banks. I will now raise my exit level on this position to a small loss at 4040. If this level is triggered I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. Meanwhile, I will leave my 4055 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to rally towards my 1.10 short term target level. I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s initial 1.0790 buy level. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0780/1.0850 with a higher 1.0715 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar continues to build value below 103.00. I will again lower my sell level to 102.80/103.50 with a lower 104.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX surged again yesterday, rallying a further 200 points, sitting close to all-time highs .It just shows you that liquidity trumps everything as we have seen since the October lows. I will now raise my DAX buy level to 15300/15380 with a higher 15215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE has now rallied 400 points since rallying back inside its Daily Bollinger Band. Yesterday’s move higher means the FTSE is only with 400 points off its all-time February high. What banking Crisis!! I will now raise my buy level to 7470/7550 with a higher 7395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. The Dow is only market not to break its 50 Day Moving Average. As a result I will continue to be a small seller from 33150/33400 with the same 31995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX just fell shy of yesterday’s buy range before rallying over 150 points off its afternoon low. I am still flat. With the 14-Day RSI closing at 65 last night I do not want to be long the NDX at this time. The NDX has resistance from 13050/13200 where I will be a small seller with a 13305 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June BUND
I was lucky yesterday as the Bund rallied to my 136.50 T/P level on my 136.20 average long position before falling 150 points. I am still flat. The Bund has support below from 134.10/134.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 133.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold surged 1.61% yesterday and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 2022/2037 with a higher 2051 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
It only took a month but finally Silver rallied to my 23.55 T/P level on February’s 23.10 long position. This is the breakout that I have been looking for. Today, I will be a buyer form 23.10/23.80 with a 21.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25..20. unchanged. I will also leave my 23.55 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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