Following a late sell-off, U.S. Equity Markets closed lower led by the 0.71% fall in the Dow. Despite the across the board sell-off, the VIX also closed lower by 1.20% at a price of 20.70. February Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell 4.2 points M/M with the largest decline coming in consumer expectations. Both the Chicago PMI and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February showed declining readings as shipments and employment metrics both fell. The Shiller House Price Index showed further declines, prompting hopes that housing inflation will soon follow suite in the upcoming CPI reading for February. Target (TGT) reported better-than-expected earnings, but future guidance was set lower. The retail firm provided a bright outlook for the overall industry as it said that inventory issues were improving, contracting 3% year over year in the fourth quarter. However, it also iterated that the environment remains challenging and that pre-pandemic operating margins are likely to be recognised in fiscal year 2024 at the earliest. Within the S&P 500 Index , eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets also closed lower. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said it must continue to raise interest rates until inflation growth is back under control, while Philip Lane said that Euro-Zone inflation pressures have begun to ease, but the central bank will continue on its current course until price growth approaches its 2% target. Euro-Zone yields spiked following hotter inflation data out of France and Spain. The Germany 10-year yield rose to near 2.65%, marking the highest level since 2011. British grocery price inflation hit 17.1% in February, according to data analytics and brand consulting firm Kantar. Finally, the German IFO Survey said the number of domestic companies reporting supply-chain shortages is the lowest since April 2021. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China added another $47.7 billion worth of liquidity to the financial system through reverse repurchase operations in an attempt to support economic growth. The China National Nuclear Corporation said the government will approve between six and 10 nuclear reactors this year in an effort to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources. Unused vessel capacity approached the highest levels since 2020. Maritime consultant firm Drewry reported that a vast majority of these idled container ships are now parked off the coast of China with expectations that demand will soon surge within the region. Japan’s Industrial Production contraction in January was worse than expected, hitting the lowest level since last May on falling demand for cars, auto parts, and semiconductors. Meanwhile, Australia’s Retail Sales rebound in January was stronger than anticipated, keeping pressure on the central bank to maintain high interest rates. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.49%, while despite a stronger Dollar, Gold rebounded from earlier lows to close higher by 0.33%
To mark my 2725th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 260 points yesterday, finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.30% lower at a price of 3970
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 232 points lower for a 0.71% loss at a price of 32,656.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.13% lower at a price of 12,042.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.24% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.66%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.08% higher at a price of 27,445.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0575.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2021.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $136.31.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 2.64%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 14 basis points higher at 3.84%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 3.93%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.49% higher at $76.81 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.33% higher at $1827.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Unemployment and Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and German CPI at 1.00 pm. At 2.45 pm we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Following the release of higher than expected Spanish CPI, the S&P sold off to my 3970 buy level before rallying to my 3987 T/P level. The S&P traded sideways for the rest of the session before having a small sell-off into the close. This move continued after the bell, hitting my next buy level at 3965 as emailed to my Platinum Members. I am still long and I will add to this position at 3950 with a lower 3939 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 3983. February was a down month for the S&P as incredibly the 5EMA (now strong resistance) was rejected six times over the past two weeks. The S&P continues to trade between the 50 Day Moving Average and 200 Day Moving Average with the former as strong resistance and the latter as support for now. The charts keep pointing to an inverse on the S&P with a target level of 4100. I know none of this is confirmed and is speculative. However, with the $NYSI Weekly coming in maximum oversold I still do not want to be short the market at this time, hence my long position after the close. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 3910/3935 with no stop or T/P level for now if triggered.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0635. I will leave my 1.0545 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level on this position to 1.0660. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I will continue to be a seller from 105.30/106.00 with the same 106.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Frustratingly, the DAX missed yesterday’s 15280 initial buy level by three points before having a nice 160 point rally. I am still flat. As I am back long the FTSE, I will now lower my DAX buy level to 15100/15180 with a lower 14995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE sold off to my 7860-buy level. I will add to this position at 7800 while leaving my 7765 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 7910. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Overnight, the Dow sold off to my initial 32550 buy level with a low so far at 32530. I am still long and I will add to this position at 32300 with the same 32195 ”Closing Stop”. I will now lower my T.P level to 32710. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members. As we are now in the seasonally strong period of the year I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Overnight the NDX sold off to my 11970 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 12060 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 11820 with the same 11695 ”Closing Stop”.
March BUND
Higher inflation data saw the Bund hit my second buy level at 132.60 for a now 133.00 average long position. I will leave my 131.95 ‘’Closing Stop’ ’unchanged while lowering my T/P level tom 133.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as my patient buy range finally paid off. Gold hit my 1805 buy level before rallying to my 1814 T/P level and I am now flat. The Gold profits over the past few days will help cushion my Silver loss below. Gold had a nice rally into the New York close, trading at 1827 as I go to press. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1797/1812 with a higher 1789 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I have not written about Silver in a couple of weeks. In my opinion Silver is a buy on any dip given how fundamentally oversold this precious metal is. I do not normally have a trade with no stop. However, we have made plenty of points by being a buyer of dips over the last 18 months in Silver. For Silver to look better from a technical perspective it needs to break the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area which has held a number of times in 2023. Remember, Silver hit a high of over $51 in May 2011. History tells you that when buyers step in to buy Silver he can rally by over $5 in one day. This is the main reason that I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 as I want to be long for the inevitable move higher. We are up a number of points this year and I have no problem holding this position even though I am currently over 200 points offside. I will also have now have no T/P level on this position for now.
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