U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed following a volatile trading session. Although the NASDAQ 100 closed lower, the Dow ended Friday with a gain of 0.39%. President Joe Biden said he expects to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon in an attempt to ease rising tensions over the downing of a spy balloon. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard endorsed raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the February policy meeting and said he would do the same in March. Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he was in favour of smaller 25-basis-point increases, citing that it gave the central bank greater flexibility, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gave a slightly more hawkish tone, saying that there needs to be more visible economic evidence that interest-rate policy is working. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell further in January, though its rate of decline moderated slightly. Deteriorating new orders in manufacturing, consumers’ business expectations, and credit conditions outweighed positives from the labour market. Within the S&P 500 Index , five of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Bank of England (“BOE”) Chief Economist Huw Pill signalled that policymakers may start to slow the pace of rate hikes as the central bank attempts to navigate a soft landing. ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel said investors may be underestimating the number of interest-rate hikes necessary to slow inflation growth, while Chief Economist Philip Lane said inflation growth must be brought back under control and that much of the economic fallout from raising interest rates has yet to be felt. German PPI growth for January was down from December, hitting the lowest level since September 2021. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China added $92 billion worth of liquidity to the financial system via reverse repurchase operations – the most on record – in an attempt to boost economic growth. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that further rate hikes should be expected over the coming months. Elsewhere, Oil fell a hefty 2.80% while Gold rebounded from earlier losses, closing higher by 0.3%.

To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 135 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2849 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 4079

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 129 points higher for a 0.39% gain at a price of 33,826.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.68% lower at a price of 12,358.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.20% lower.

Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.5%.

Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.66% lower at a price of 27,513.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.

The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0693.

The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2040.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $134.14.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.44%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.52%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 3.82%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.80% lower at $76.29 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.3% higher at $1842.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am and Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. With the U.S. Markets closed for the Presidents’ Day Holiday we have no other data of note.

Cash S&P 500

Poor Bears are having a difficult time to getting anything going on the downside. Every time it looks like we are going to break support, buyers step in to prevent any sustained sell-off. This has been the ongoing theme all year so far. The S&P having hit a morning low at 4047 rebounded 30 Handles into the close. This move higher was helped by the large 400 point turn around in the Dow. The seasonal chart continues to pay out, leaving room for one more test of the downside before rallying into April. With American Markets closed today, liquidity will be a problem and a quiet session is envisaged. I am still long the S&P from late Thursday at an average rate of 4086. I will leave my 4063 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged , while lowering my T/P level to 4091. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

EUR/USD

The Euro just missed my 1.0600 second buy level with a 1.0612 low. I am still long at 1.0670 as thankfully the Euro had a nice rally into the New York close, sitting at 1.0695 as I go to press. I will leave my 1.0715 T/P level unchanged. I will continue to add to this position at 1.0600 while leaving my 1.0545 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

March Dollar Index

No Change. I will not chase the Dollar higher, leaving my 102.40/103.10 buy level unchanged with the same 101.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

My DAX plan worked well on Friday. After the market hit my 15330 buy level we had a nice 150 point rally. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my 15390 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The price action keeps telling me there is no point in being short unless the DAX breaks and closes below 15,000 for two consecutive trading sessions.  Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 15310/15390 with a higher 15235 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

No Change. Although the FTSE did not make a new high on Friday, the market still closed above 8000. I am still flat, reluctant to chase the market higher given how overbought we are at this time. Therefore, I will leave my 7870/7940 buy level unchanged with the same tight 7815 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

Frustratingly, the Dow missed my initial 33467 buy level before turning around by rallying 400 points into the close. I will now raise my buy level to 33420/33670 with a higher 33295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Just like the Dow above, the NDX also missed my buy level by 20 points before having a nice 200 point rally. Today, I will raise my buy level to 12120/12320 with a higher 11995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite rising Bond Yields I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.

March BUND

The Bund hit a morning low at 133.68 before turning around and rally 150 points into the New York close. I am still long at an average rate of 135.35 with the same 135.70 T/P level. I will continue to have my ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 134.55 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

My Gold plan worked well last week. The continued idea of buying dips is certainly paying off. This strategy will continue as long as Gold remains oversold. On Friday Gold hit my buy level at 1818 before rallying to close in New York at 1842. As I have a large position in Silver I covered this long Gold position at my revised 1827.50 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1813/1828. I will be a buyer in this area with a wider 1799 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. Silver has traded sideways since we saw the market fall 3% last Thursday. I am still convinced that it is only a matter of time before Silver takes out the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area. Remember in May 2011, Silver was trading above $50. I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 with the same no stop policy. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 23.50. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members