U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session higher, led by the 1.60% gain in the Dow. The VIX continued its march lower, falling 6.5%, to close at a price of 20.07. Markets started and finished the day in positive territory. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for December showed household sentiment is improving. In fact, the reading was the highest it has been since April. Respondents were not only more optimistic about their current situation, but the outlook as well. More individuals felt business conditions were returning to normal, while a decreasing number thought they were bad. The number of people who expected the business environment to improve in six months’ time increased for the fifth straight month. At the same time, the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales data showed prices continue to fall. The median sales price fell to $370,700 in November compared with the $413,800 peak in June. That is a slump of more than 10%. This is another signal that inflation growth is slowing. The change should support the Federal Reserve easing the pace of interest-rate hikes and then pausing them early next year. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Investors were increasingly positive about the inflation outlook after Tuesday’s better-than-expected German Producer Price Index results for November. Yesterday, French power-grid operator Réseau de Transport d’Électricité said rebounding nuclear and hydroelectric power generation has reduced the chances of any power shortfalls in January. The data points underpinned a rally in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like retail and real estate. In Asia, The Bank of Japan’s decision to lift the yield cap on 10-year sovereign bonds from 0.25% to 0.50% weighed on the nation’s stock markets. Investors worried that borrowing costs would rise, eating into company profits. At the same time, a surging Yen due to rising yields could weigh on the sales outlook for exporters like Toyota and Honda. Chinese stocks fared much better. The government in Beijing has said it will do more to introduce policy measures next year that support growth. This comes as it has also decided to dial back its “zero COVID” policies. The changes have made analysts view the country’s stocks more favourably, with Credit Suisse being the latest to upgrade its 2023 outlook. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.06%, while Gold closed higher by 1.71%
To mark my 2675th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 240 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1313 points for December after closing November with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.49% higher at a price of 3878
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 526 points higher for a 1.60% gain at a price of 33,376.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.48% lower at a price of 11,235.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.71% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 1.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.46% higher at a price of 26,507
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0609.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.2073.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $132.40.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.58%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 3.67%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.06% higher at $78.09 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.71% higher at $1812.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Final GDP which fell 0.3% versus -0.2% expected. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and Personal Income/Spending. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.
Cash S&P 500
I have mentioned a few times this week that the S&P price action felt similar to June when the market kept making new lows before out of nowhere, we got a subsequent 600 Handle rally in the S&P over the summer months. This morning, the S&P is trading 60 Handles higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. I am not saying we are going to get the same vicious rally this time, but we are now right in the middle of the seasonally strong time of the year – namely the Santa Rally. The goal was to be long the S&P with no stop. This strategy was tested on Tuesday by the BOJ, resulting in the S&P hitting a low at 3775. Yesterday’s move higher saw my revised 3881 T/P level triggered on my 3857 average long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P at a price of 3870. This level was triggered just before the close. We are nicely ahead on this trade. I will raise my stop on this position to a ‘’Closing’’ price of 3855. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 3905. Yesterday’s rally was a start but a lot still has to be proven in the days ahead. There is still plenty of room for the market to squeeze higher. European Markets are strong despite the worsening economic situation. This was another reason why I had no interest in pressing the sell signal in any of the Indexes that I cover. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro again traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 1.0750/1.0830 with a higher 1.0905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.0460/1.0540 buy level unchanged with the same 1.0385 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Ahead of the Christmas break, I will now lower my buy level to 102.20/102.90 with a lower 101.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX fell shy of yesterday’s buy level before rallying 150 points and I am still flat. The DAX has support from 13820/13900. I will now raise my buy level to this higher range with a wider 13695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE surged yesterday and I am still flat. Despite an awful Final GDP print this morning, the FTSE continues to trade at the high of the day so far. Remember, -and it is advice that will save you a lot of money- ‘’A market that cannot fall on bad news has to be respected’’. The FTSE has support from 7380/7450. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a tight 7335 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustrating. The Dow missed yesterday’s buy level shortly after I posted before rallying over 500 points and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 32800/33150 with a higher 32645 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has the most pervasive set of negative high/low readings in history. Maybe I am delusional, definitely stubborn as I see the potential for a massive rally in the NDX. The fact is the NDX is oversold enough for a sizeable Santa Rally to ignite with plenty of room for a squeeze. A break and close over the 50 Day MA at 11415 would greatly help this view. I am still long at an average price of 11383. I will leave my 10995 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 11650. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 136.60 with the same 135.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 136.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to build value above 1800 and I am still flat. The break and close over 1800 is short-term bullish. Over the Christmas I will leave my 1786/1801 buy level unchanged with the same 1773 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Given the strength of the 24.00/25.50 resistance area I am reluctant to chase the market higher. However, I am long-term bullish of Silver given out cheap Silver is in relation to Gold. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 22.80/23.50 with no stop. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 24.30.
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