U.S. Equity Markets finished the day mixed after a large reversal in the last two hours of trading. Although the NASDAQ 100 closed higher by 0.34%, the Dow finished in the red with a loss of 0.46%. U.S. Producer Inflation clocked in at 1.1% in June, higher than the 0.8% estimate. Markets declined further on banks’ earnings misses… And JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated his dire outlook on the global economy. Investors are predicting a 1.0% interest rate hike by the Fed later this month. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 244,000 last week, adding to the growing list of recession indicators. Within the S&P 500, three of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets fell as the Euro and the Pound continued to lose ground against the Dollar. U.S. inflation growth deepened investors’ worries that the Dollar will continue to gain strength as the Fed eyes a 1.0% rate hike in July. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi says he will resign amid political tensions in the country. The European Commission cut its project of 2023 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product from 2.3% to 1.4%. In Asia, Equities reacted to the hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data from Wednesday. Financial and banking stocks declined as Asian central banks started to increase interest rates. The central bank of the Philippines surprised investors with a 0.75% rate hike, following recent hikes by South Korea and New Zealand. Australian Unemployment fell to a 48-year low, fuelling anticipation for a 0.75% rate hike ahead. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.54% after a volatile session, while Gold closed 1.47% lower on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 347 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2167 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.30% lower at a price of 3790.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower for a 0.46% loss at a price of 30,630.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% higher at a price of 11,768.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.54% higher at a price of 26,788.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0018.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.1811.
The Japanese Yen fell 1.1% closing at $139.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 1.15%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.09%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 2.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.54% lower at $94.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.47% lower at $1708.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Retail Sales, New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Import/Export Price Index at 1.30 pm, followed by Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday’s 11.1% PPI print caused another massive sell-off as markets saw increased tightening from the Fed as the Dollar rose to price this in. With the Dollar surging to another 22-year high, Fed Member Waller concerned where the Dollar was going by tring to take the 100 BP rate hike this month’s upcoming Fed Meeting by saying 75BP will be enough. The S&P rallied 80 Handles into the close as yet again the Weekly 150 MA held again. My S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 3755 average long position before rallying to my 3774 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Retail Sales data are key today. If we get a weak print then we should finally see a sell-off in the Dollar and a subsequent S&P rally. However, a strong print will increase the calls for a 1% rate hike. There is no doubt that the inverted Yield curve is telling us that America is probably already in recession and once this is confirmed the Fed will flip-flop. I mentioned my views at length in yesterday’s Daily Commentary. Today, I will again be a buyer of the S&P from 3758/3778 with the same 3729 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro had a nice reversal off yesterday’s post PPI print low at .9948. I am still long at 100.45 with the same 1.0110 T/P level and an unchanged .9975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my sell range for a 108.80 average short position before selling off to my revised 108.23 T/P level and I am now flat. There is so much relying on a weaker Dollar that in my opinion given how overvalued and over bought we are, it is only a matter of time before we see a large reversal in the greenback. While we may hit 109.50/110.00, we are certainly close to a reversal given the noises coming out of both the BoJ and ECB. Today, I will again be a seller from 108.80/109.50 with a 110.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan did not work well as after I bought the market at 12610 I was stopped out of this position at 12495 and I am still flat. It is extremely difficult to have a fixed stop in these markets given the volatility but unfortunately, I forgot to put ‘’Closing’’ yesterday. This morning the DAX is trading higher at 12630. We have strong support from 12380/12460 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 12295 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12590.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded the whole of my buy range for a now 7090 average long position. I will leave my 6995 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 7105 which is just above the overnight high. Given the worsening political situation in the U.K. I prefer to be flat over the weekend.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a nice reversal off yesterday’s post PPI print low at 30143, by rallying over 600 points. This suited as the Dow hit my 30400 average buy level before rallying to my revised 30540 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has strong support from 30100/30400 where I will again be a buyer with the same 29995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The ‘’Fear & Greed Index closed unchanged last night at 24 which is still a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear’’. This is another reason not to press the downside given how oversold stocks are across the board. However, the McClellan Oscillator weakened yesterday, closing at – 77. I continue to watch this key indicator for any signs of a more sustained tradeable bottom.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied to my 11770 T/P level on Tuesday’s 11690 average long position. Today, I will again look to buy the NDX on any further dip to 11530/11680 with a 11395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Lower Treasury Yields should support the NDX in Q3 and is the main reason why I continue to hold my April long position at 14327. I will leave my exit level unchanged at 12900 on this position.
September BUND
The Bund is urging this morning, trading 200 points higher form yesterday’s low print. We have now traded the whole of my sell range and I am now short at 153.40. I will raise my T/P level to 152.90 while leaving my 154.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Following the PPI print, Gold traded lower to my 1705 buy level before rallying to my revised 1714 T/P level and I am now flat. The sell-off in both Gold and Silver over the past two months is really beginning to hurt as most Fund Managers are always long these precious metals. Gold has support from 1670/1685 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1659 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
While I am not surprised by the weaker Gold, I am concerned about how weak Silver is. Silver has now fallen from a high of $51 in May 2011 to sit at 18.30 this morning. Silver is oversold and due a major rally in my opinion. I was stopped out of my 19.40 long position at 18.35 and I am now flat. Silver has support from 17.70/18.25 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 16.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Recent Comments