U.S. Equity Markets finished the week mixed on what was a surprisingly quiet trading session. Equity Markets were driven by employment-related data once more. The Bureau of Labour Statistics released its Non-Farm Payroll data for June. The numbers showed a decline compared to May but were still well ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. More importantly, the lack of a meaningful decline in job additions supported more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The data supported recent commentary from central bank policymakers. Governor Christopher Waller, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic all came out in support of a 0.75% rate hike later this month. Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Italian Industrial-Production data for May was stronger than expected, driven by strong textile and machinery manufacturing. At the same time, the German government was debating a restart of coal-fired power plants to reduce reliance on natural gas before winter demand. These two factors combined would support regional economic growth in addition to cooling inflation growth. In Asia, China’s suggestion of raising $220 billion in stimulus funds via local bond sales stoked optimism about the regional growth outlook. This was aided by commentary from Federal Reserve officials who voiced support for more rate hikes, driven by what they saw as underlying economic strength in the U.S. Money managers invested in beaten-up technology and growth plays as a result. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2% while Gold closed flat after a quiet session.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 358 points on Friday and is now ahead by 580 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% lower at a price of 3899.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points lower for a 0.15% loss at a price of 31,338.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% higher at a price of 12,125.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.21% higher at a price of 26,836.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0186.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.1995.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $136.45.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 1.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 2.24%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 3.07%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.09% higher at $104.44 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.08% higher at $1743.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note on either side of the Atlantic. The U.S. has a three-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P had a nice week, closing higher by 1.9% as the Daily 5 EMA held support against all dips again on Friday. Although the S&P is still in a downtrend as we again closed below the 50-Day Moving Average (3972), the positive part is the S&P finally closed above its Weekly 5 EMA, while the VIX closed below its most recent uptrend, falling a further 5.5% on Friday, to close at a price of 24.44. The one negative last week was the low volume which suggests a lack of buying power. We need the S&P to reconnect to its 50 MA before deciding if this is just another Bear Market rally. This morning the S&P Futures are trading lower by 35 Handles. On Friday, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3870 buy level before bouncing to a rebound high at 3918, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 3884 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 3835/3853 with a 3819 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Wrong!. I was stopped out of my 1.0210 long position shortly after I posted at 1.0135 and I am still flat. The Euro made a new 22-year low at 100.80 before bouncing 100 points. This morning, the Euro is trading lower at 1.0135 as the Equity Futures Markets are opening weak. This morning, I will be an aggressive buyer from 1.0030/1.0090 with a 99.75 stop.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar traded to my second sell level at 107.50 for a now 107.20 average short position. I will leave my 108.15 stop unchanged while raising my T/P level to 106.70. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX never came close to Friday’s buy range and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 12630/12710 with a higher 12555 stop.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 7130 buy level before rallying to my revised 7173 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the FTSE is opening lower at 7115. We have strong support from 7020/7070 where I will again be a buyer with a 6955 wider stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The break and close over 31300 on Friday is bullish and I would not be surprised to see the Dow rally to the 50-Day Moving Average (31965) over the coming days. Internally the market was strong with the McClellan Oscillator closing at +86 on Friday night. This reading will not be overbought until we see a solid print above +250. Sentiment is still on the floor as shown by the ‘’Fear & Greed ‘’ Index which only improved slightly, closing at 30 which is now a reading of ‘’Fear’’. This morning the Dow has sold off to my 31080 buy level. I am now long in small size and I will add to this trade on any further sip to 30850 with the same 30695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 31250 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX call worked well with the market trading lower to my 11970 buy level before rallying to my revised 12100 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX closed at 12125 on Friday, just below its 50-Day MA (12178). A break and close over this level will be short-term bullish. This morning the NDX is again testing the key 12000 support level. I will look to buy the market again from 11780/11930 with the same 11695 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12100. Lower Treasury Yields should support the NDX in Q3 and is the main reason why I continue to hold my April long position at 14327. I will leave my exit level unchanged at 12900 on this position.
September BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to Friday’s sell range, falling a further 100 points. The Bund has support from 149.00/149.70 where I will be a small buyer with a 148.45 stop. I am not going to chase the Bund lower, leaving my 151.70/152.50 sell level unchanged with the same 153.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
My long 1739 Gold position worked well as Gold rallied to my 1751 T/P level and I am still flat. Gold has strong support from 1712/1725 where I will again be a buyer with a 1699 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 19.40 with the same 20.10 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 18.35 stop unchanged.
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