U.S. Equity Markets finished the day higher after a volatile session, with the NASDAQ 100 again leading the rally with a 0.62% gain. Meanwhile, the VIX fell 3%, closing at a price of 26.73. Yesterday’s price action was driven by three items – Job Openings, the Institute for Supply Management’s (“ISM”) monthly services index report, and the release of Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. The data was better than Wall Street feared. The ISM numbers came in stronger than expected. The report showed an increase in business activity and order backlogs, while employment and prices paid eased. All of the data leaned toward easing inflation. Plus, the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey showed the number of available employment opportunities continued to slide. That implies labour-market tightness is improving. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Meeting Minutes were as expected. Policymakers said they are still worried about persistently high inflation. They also said they anticipate an interest-rate increase of 0.50% to 0.75% in July. Withing the S&P 500 eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Norway’s government was forced to step in and halt a strike by the country’s oil and natural gas workers. It said a shutdown of output could stoke the region’s inflation outlook. So it forced the two sides to seek arbitration. Adding to the optimism, German factory order growth for May unexpectedly rose as foreign demand for automobiles, parts, and engineering goods surged. In Asia, Investors worried about renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Shanghai health officials said up to 12 of the city’s 16 districts will conduct mass testing through Thursday to identify and halt the spread of a developing outbreak. Further stoking regional growth fears were comments from Sun Tianqi, the head of the Financial Stability Bureau at the People’s Bank of China. He said the bank won’t provide liquidity for lenders fraught with bankruptcy risks. And South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said it’s inevitable that the nation’s central bank will work to normalise monetary policy to ease inflation. Higher interest rates could choke off borrowing and spending. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.1% continuing Tuesday’s aggressive sell-off while Gold fell 1.4% as the Euro broke 1.0200.
To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 222 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.36% higher at a price of 3845.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher for a 0.23% gain at a price of 31,037.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.62% higher at a price of 11,852.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.2% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.36% higher at a price of 26,462.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0194.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.1943.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $135.81.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 1.15%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 2.09%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 11 basis points higher at 2.91%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.1% lower at $98.62 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.4% lower at $1747.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Output which fell 0.2% versus +0.4% expected. Next, we have the Minutes from last Month’s ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 6.00 pm we have speeches from Fed Members Waller and Bullard.
Cash S&P 500
Another interesting session. Despite the Dollar screaming higher and Treasury Yields bouncing off the now key 2.80% support level, it was surprising that the S&P closed higher, although it did have a 25 Handle sell-off into the close from its 3871 high print. Clearly, the path of the Dollar will pressure earnings and I am sure that this will be mentioned by companies in the next few weeks. Yesterday’s rally saw the S&P close over its 20 Day Moving Average for the first time since early June. However, the rally halted at the 5EMA and it is now clear that Bulls need to get a Weekly close above 3870 to extend any rally Seasonality still suggests positive price action into the middle of the month. For now, the key 150 Weekly MA (3748) has held on three occasions and this is now major support. Yesterday. My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3810 buy level before rallying to my 3832 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has support from 3815/3833 where I will be a small buyer with a 3799 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro sold off hard again yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 1.0210 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0260 while leaving my 1.0135 stop unchanged.
March Dollar Index
The aggressive rally in the Dollar shows no sign of stopping any time soon. Yesterday, the Dollar hit my sell range and I am now short at 106.90. I will add to this position at 107.50 with a now higher 108.15 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 106.40 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Frustrating! The DAX missed my initial 12480 buy level by 25 points before rallying to sit at 12720 this morning. This move higher has now reversed most of Tuesday’s aggressive sell-off. I will now raise my buy level to 12500/12600 with a 12395 wider stop.
Cash FTSE
Politically the UK is a mess. However, it did not stop the FTSE from rallying yesterday after hitting my 7080 buy level. This rally saw my 7140 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. It is only a matter of time before Boris is forced to resign and this should help the FTSE going forward. Today, I will be a buyer from 7070/7130 with a wider 6995 stop
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 30800 buy level before reversing to rally 400 points. I covered my long position too early at 30955 and I am still flat. Sentiment is still near all-time lows while the ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index is struggling to move higher, closing again last night at 24 which is ‘’Extreme Fear’’. As long as the Dow does not close below 30200 I will continue to be a buyer on dips given how oversold all my signal charts are. The Dow has support from 30650/30950 where I will be a buyer with a 30495 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX was the strongest of the American Indexes again yesterday. To me, The NDX chart is encouraging and a sustained break above 12000 could well see a momentum building rally to offset all the oversold readings. Yesterday the NDX just missed my 11680 buy level before rallying to sit at 11900 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 11650/11800 with a 11495 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11970. Lower Treasury Yields should support the NDX in Q3 and is the main reason why I continue to hold my April long position at 14327. I will leave my exit level unchanged at 12900 on this position.
September BUND
The Bund rallied hard yesterday, hitting my second sell level at 151.90 with a high at 152.40. I am now short at an average rate of 151.55. This morning the Bund has just hit my 151.95 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members yesterday and I am now flat. There is growing fear the ECB will not be able to push thorough a series of rate hike (which as a reminder, has yet to start) before any recession kicks in. The yield on 2-year German Schatz has fallen more than 18 basis points to 0.41% over the past 48 hours. This is a massive move. The Bund has resistance from 151.90/152.60 where I will again be a seller with a 153.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Wrong! Gold got hit hard yesterday, stopping me out of Tuesday’s 1787 long position at 1747 and I am now flat. Gold is oversold. We have support from 1725/1740 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 1709 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1753.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 19.40 with the same 20.10 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 18.35 stop unchanged.
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