U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session lower as the S&P snapped a four- day winning streak, closing with a loss of 0.63%. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey did not represent positive momentum in ending the conflict. He said neither side made headway, and that nothing of particular importance was promised. This overshadowed previous comments from Russia suggesting talks were constructive. Consequently, the countries failed to achieve a cease-fire, with Russia increasing ground and air attacks in eastern parts of Ukraine after statements saying they would limit their assault. This reversed Tuesday’s optimism in U.S. markets, as the comments indicate the situation will likely remain volatile for quite some time. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden said the White House is considering invoking the Defense Production Act this week to bolster domestic output of minerals used in batteries needed for the manufacturing of electric vehicles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories declined by 3.45 million barrels last week compared with the estimated fall of 2.51 million – further exacerbating volatility in the U.S. stock market. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators said talks are entering a practical phase and a presidential meeting could be in the works. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they would not remove Russia from their global oil alliance, saying such a decision could exacerbate supply problems. European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said it should raise interest rates twice this year to account for higher inflation persisting for longer. European officials also said they were weighing new steps to increase pressure on Russia’s economy, including target banks and Oligarch family members. In Asia, The Chinese city of Xuzhou, home to over 9 million people, announced a three-day lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19 infections. The Bank of Japan said it would increase the amount of normal sovereign bond purchases and extended the maturities to stop interest rates from rising. The People’s Bank of China added another $20.4 billion worth of funds to the financial system (the third day in a row) to keep liquidity stable into the quarter’s end. Japan’s Retail Sales figures for February contracted more than anticipated, stoking concerns that economic growth may be slowing. Elsewhere, Oil rose 3.43% following a rise in U.S. Inventories while Gold rose 0.73% as investors grew more risk-averse to market volatility and geopolitical tensions.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 175 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6078 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at a price of 4602.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points lower for a 0.19% loss at a price of 35,228.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.1% lower at a price of 15,071.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.80% lower at a price of 28,027.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.1152.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.3137.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.8%, closing at $121.80.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.66%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 1.67%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower 2.34%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.43% higher at $107.82 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.73% higher at $1932.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales and U.K. GDP at 7.00 am. This is followed by German Unemployment at 8.55 am and a speech from ECB Member Lane at 9.00 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Personal Income/Spending at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 2.00 pm and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has become tricky to trade following the recent 500-Handle melt-up rally over the past three weeks. Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2007/08, no sell-off has lasted more than a few weeks with new highs almost guaranteed to come. That is pretty much the ingrained attitude and behaviour that we see now unfolding. Even yesterday evening the S&P still managed to rally over 25 Handles in the last 30 minutes of trading. We are seeing the lowest Put/call Ratio readings in history again with no capitulation fear to begin with. Despite Q1 GDP estimates been cut in half and Consumer Confidence at 10-year lows, while the Fed are doing absolutely to combat inflation until the May Meeting when QE will finally end, the buy the dips shows no sign of stopping. This makes no sense to me at all, as we saw in Europe yesterday how quickly inflation is taking hold despite repeated denials from all ECB Members who in my opinion should be sacked. I know inflation did not last long in the 1970s as the Fed were ahead of the curve while Debt to GDP was in the 30s and not 120% as we are seeing today. Trying to go short the S&P is difficult as traditionally the first two weeks of April are seasonally bullish. Yesterday afternoon sell-off saw the S&P finally hit my 4585 T/P level on my 4600 latest short-position and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance from 4628/4648 where I will again be a seller with no stop for now. We have support from 4555/4570 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4539 wider stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied yesterday which was no surprise given the release of the latest Inflation data. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1075/1.1115 with a 1.1029 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I am still long at 98.40 from Tuesday. I will add to this trade at 97.60 with a now lower and tight 97.25 stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 98.60 T/P level unchanged and if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX got hit hard yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 14850/14950 with a lower 15035 stop. I no longer want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE has further resistance from 7605/7665 where I will again be a seller with a 7705 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7565.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow tried to sell-off late yesterday, hitting a low at 35060 before rallying almost 200 points into the close. The Dow is severely overbought. We have resistance from 35380/35630 where I will continue to be a strong seller with no stop for now. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed slightly lower at 53 last night which is still a ‘’Neutral’’ Reading.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ was the weakest of the American Indexes yesterday with the late sell-off resulting in the NDX just closing below its 200 Day Moving Average at 15131. It is not a convincing break as yet and given the fact today is Month and Quarter End, it will be interesting to see what happens in the last 30 minutes of trading this evening. I will now lower my sell level to 15210/15310 with a wider 15425 stop.
June BUND
No Change. I am still flat as the Bund fell a further 50 points yesterday. I have certainly lost my edge in the Bund and therefore I will stay flat today.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold tried to sell-off before a late rally saw Gold close higher at 1932. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1895/1910 with a higher 1881 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest long 24.70 Silver position worked well with the market trading higher to my 24.95 T/P level and I am still flat. Silver has support from 23.90/24.50 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 23.45 stop.
Recent Comments