Strong Economic data saw U.S. Equity Markets closed higher yesterday, led by the NASDAQ 100 which finished the day with a gain of 2.2%. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since 1969. In Wall Street’s view, declining Jobless Claims signal economic expansion. The change supports the Federal Reserve’s guidance to potentially raise interest rates by 2% this year. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data hit the highest level in eight months. Similarly, Services-Sector Activity was the strongest in seven months while manufacturing saw the strongest numbers since last September. New Orders rose for the second straight month, hitting a nine-month high. The rate of new export orders also accelerated. Importantly, firms surveyed said that supply-chain issues were easing. If this persists, it could mean inflation comes back down. These data points support comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said that the economy was strong enough to handle tighter policy from the central bank. So that would mean that the Fed’s actions wouldn’t cause a recession like some investors fear. This situation will remain fluid – any weakness in economic data will bring these fears right back. The advances far outweighed the declines in the S&P 500. Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) boosted semiconductors – and tech stocks – on follow-through from Wednesday’s report that Nvidia was considering Intel as its foundry partner. On the downside, homebuilders traded lower as higher mortgage rates indicated lower affordability, which could hurt future demand. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. The European Central Bank’s Economic Bulletin said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push regional inflation higher and hurt economic activity. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling for Moscow to reach a quick cease-fire in Ukraine. Putin said his country would refuse to accept payment for energy products in currencies that have “compromised themselves,” potentially restricting supply. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the group is committed to supporting Ukraine militarily, but it will not send troops into the country. In Asia, Markit Japan’s preliminary composite PMI data for March increased compared with February as manufacturing activity increased and the rate of services contraction improved. The People’s Bank of China removed roughly $9.5 billion worth of funds from the financial system saying it seeks to maintain stable liquidity. Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka said additional monetary easing is needed to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Chinese state-run media outlet Economic Daily said the country’s central bank should ensure ample credit supply to support economic growth. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3% on reports that the U.S. was ready to increase energy supply to Europe to fill the gap left by Russia, while Gold jumped a further 1.29% on little news.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5409 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.43% higher at a price of 4520.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points higher for a 1.02% gain at a price of 34,707.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2,2% higher at a price of 14,765.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.14% higher at a price of 28,149.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1015.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3193.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $121.98.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.53%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.65%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher 2.37%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3% lower at $113.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.29% higher at $1959.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Retail Sales which fell 0.3% versus +0.6% expected. At 9.00 am we have the German IFO Survey and Euro-Zone Money Supply. This is followed by Pending Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Williams and Waller at 2.00 pm and 4.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P completely reversed Wednesday’s late sell-off to close 1.43% higher despite higher Bond Yields and a worsening of the Ukrainian war. The S&P hit a high overnight of 4534 – 400 Handles higher than the low from last Tuesday week in what has turned out to be one of the most vicious points rises in history. The charts are showing a 45 Degree Angle which is straight up led by Apple Shares which have now closed higher for eight consecutive trading sessions after testing its 200 Day Moving Average. This move higher saw the VIX close 8% lower at a price of 21.67, very close to the key 20.50 support level. Any investor who stayed short last week has got slammed as this rally is not letting anyone in and Funds who are short are forced to close their positions which ends with much higher prices than anyone expects. It is now time to start pressing the short side as we have a number of key resistance levels above here, namely the 20 MA at 4533 and the 100 MA at 4547 which should act as strong resistance. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well as after the market hit my 4501 sell level we saw a quick 15 Handle drop, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 4491 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am still flat. Today, I will be an aggressive seller from 4538/4563 with no stop for now. The S&P has short-term support from 4482/4497 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 4469 stop.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly, the Euro just missed my 1.0950 initial buy level by 15 points before rallying to sit higher at 1.1025 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0935/1.0985 with a higher 1.0875 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
This morning the Dollar traded lower to my initial 98.40 buy level. I am still long with the same 98.70 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 97.80 while leaving my 97.35 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX has struggled over the past 48 hours which is no surprise given its 2000 point rise off the 12500 low print from three weeks ago. I am still flat and I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 14030/14130 with the same 13975 stop.
Cash FTSE
No Change. Ahead of the weekend I will not chase the FTSE lower leaving my 7520/7570 sell level unchanged with the same 7625 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time..
Dow Rolling Contract
This has been one of the most volatile Quarters for trading in points terms for U.S Indexes. To Summarise: In Q1 we saw massive growth take downs, ramps in inflation, Interest Rate hike expectations, a war in Europe which has had massive implications for Commodities and Energy with sanctions the net result. Despite all this negative news, the S&P closed 6% from all-time highs while we are now back to 187% Market Cap to GDP with most analysts saying the 4138 low in the S&P was the bottom for the year. Despite Fed Chair’s alleged aggressive stance to more rate hikes, we have only seen a 25 basis points rise while at the same time the Fed’s Balance Sheet made a new all-time high last week. Meanwhile, the ECB keeps printing with no sign of stopping while China has put a floor under the stock market with last week’s intervention. The 200 Day MA for the Dow comes in at a price of 34974. Despite the S&P closing over this key MA yesterday, my own view is that we are very close to an end of this vicious rally. Today, I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 35050/35350 with no stop. The Dow has short-term support from 34200/34400 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 34075 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed slight higher at 46 last night, which is now a ‘’Neutral’’ Reading.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 14980/15100 with the same wider 15255 stop. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time especially with the 10-Year Treasury trading at 2.4%
June BUND
The Bund traded the whole of yesterday’s buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 159.20 with a now lower 159.65 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my stop unchanged at 158.35.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied over 1% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1918/1933 with a tight 1907 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver exploded higher yesterday, trading at 25.50 this morning and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 24.50/25.10 with a 23.95 tight stop.
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