U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session lower, worried about recession as all three main Indexes closed with an average loss of 1.3%. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the domestic economy remains fundamentally strong, allowing for policy tightening. This fell in line with Tuesday’s comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. This indicates that the Fed is looking to tighten policy quicker than previously thought. As a result, markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point rate hike at the Fed next meeting. While these moves could lead to lower inflation, there are also concerns that they could stifle growth and cause a recession. That was not the only thing sparking recession fears… A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas study showed the global economy would fall into a recession without Russian energy exports. Specifically, the Dallas Fed said that higher energy prices would push inflation higher, forcing consumers to pull back on spending. The regional central bank said that the only way to combat this would be higher oil production from OPEC nations. Energy stocks outperformed again, as oil prices continued to rise. General Mills (GIS) boosted the staples sector after posting a strong earnings report and forward guidance. On the downside, financials underperformed, as lower bond yields indicate lower margins for the banking sector. Within the S&P 500 Index, nine of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said negotiations to end the conflict with Russia were “confrontational” but slowly moving forward. The U.K. and the U.S. reached a deal to ease retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, potentially easing price pressures. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the Group of 20 nations and the World Trade Organisation would discuss Russia’s status after the Ukraine conflict is resolved. The European Central Bank said it would start working on adding climate risks to banks’ capital cushion requirements in the second half of 2022. In Asia, Chinese state-run media outlet Securities Daily said current policy offered room for the People’s Bank of China to lower banks’ reserve requirement ratio and cut interest rates. The Japanese government lifted its power supply shortage warning for Tokyo, saying it expects levels to rebound as the weather improves. South Korea’s producer price index growth for February eased versus January, hitting the lowest level since September, as agricultural, forest, and marine product inflation contracted. Elsewhere, Oil rose 5.02% as investors digest the supply and demand picture as the invasion of Ukraine continues, while Gold closed 1.28% higher as investors rotated back into haven assets.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 365 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5309 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.23% lower at a price of 4456.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 448 points lower for a 1.29% loss at a price of 34,358.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.41% loss at a price of 14,447.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.25% higher at a price of 28,110.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1005.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3205.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $121.52.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points lower at 1.63%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower 2.35%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.02% higher at $117.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.28% higher at $1942.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, U.K and Euro-Zone Markit Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin will be released at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders at 12.30 pm. Next, we have Markit Services PMI at 1.45 pm, followed by the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have Fed Members Waller, Evans and Bostic speaking at 1.10 pm, 1.50 pm and 3.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
My 4508 short S&P position worked well as the market traded lower to my 4496 T/P level. Subsequently, the S&P tested the 50 Day Moving Average, by hitting my 4475 buy level before rallying back above 4495. This move higher enabled me to cover my long position at my 4487 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The S&P had a nasty sell-off in the last 30 minutes, by closing right on the 50 Day MA at 4456. The major question at this time has the Short Covering Rally Ended? Value below 4450 would tell us the answer is yes and to look to set up short positions for further downside to 4387/97 and 4337/4352. With the S&P rallying over 10% in a week, risk is for a move lower first before a more meaningful rally ensues. The S&P has resistance from 4499/4519 where I will again be a seller with no stop for now. The S&P has short-term support from 4430/4445 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4417 tight stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.0970 buy level before rallying to my 1.1010 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the Euro is opening lower at 1.0980. We have strong support from 1.0900/1.0950 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.0855 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar which is no surprise given the lack of price movement. I will now raise my buy level to 97.80/98.40 with a tight 97.35 stop.
Cash DAX
In Hindsight, I should have held on to yesterday morning’s 14560 short position as the DAX is now trading 300 points lower. This sell-off saw the DAX hit my 14240 buy level before rallying to my 14300 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has strong support from 14050/14150 where I will again be a buyer with a 13975 stop. stop.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE has traded in a narrow range since I marked prices 24 hours ago, ignoring the aggressive sell-off in both America and the Euro-Zone. I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 7520/7570 with a 7625 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time..
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow fell over 500 points yesterday, allowing me to buy the market at a price of 34550 and again at the bottom of my buy range at 34400 for a now 34475 average long position. The Dow closed below its 50-Day MA (34441) which is short-term bearish. This morning the Dow is trading higher and I have now exited this long position here for small gain at 34495 and I am now flat. The Dow has strong support below from 34050/34250 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 33895 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34420. I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 35050/35350 with no stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34800. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed basically unchanged at 43 last night, still showing a reading of ‘’Fear’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower tom my 14510 buy level before rallying to my revised 14590 T/P level and I am now flat. Lowering my T/P level helped as the NASDAQ sold off hard into the close (14447) before having a small rally overnight, trading at a price of 14500 as I go to press. The NDX has short-term support from 14320/14420 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 14195 stop. We have short-term resistance from 14980/15100 where I will continue to be a strong seller with a wider 15255 stop.
June BUND
The Bund had a volatile trading session before having a late rally, closing above 160.00. This move higher saw my 159.65 T/P level triggered on my latest 159.20 long position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 158.90/159.50 with a 158.35 stop. Given how oversold the Bund is trading, I do not want to be short the market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied over 1% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1905/1920 with a tight 1889 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a strong buyer on any dip lower to 23.80/24.50 with the same 22.95 stop.
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