U.S. Equity Markets closed higher for the fifth trading session out of the past six, led again by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a gain of 1.94%. The S&P 500 Index closed above the 200-day moving average today, which marked a key level for technical traders. Next up is the 100-DMA at 4,549. If we see the index close above that level, we could see commodity trading advisor buy programmes get triggered, which would push markets even higher. Investors largely shook off Monday’s hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and yesterday’s from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard again took a hawkish stance, saying that the Fed needs to act more aggressively to combat inflation. He added that hiking rates near 3% this year would help to reverse the upward pressure on inflation. These comments were not anything new – Bullard has been calling for aggressive rate hikes for months. Russian headlines were still mixed. The White House warned Russia could conduct a wave of cyberattacks against U.S. businesses in response to economic sanctions imposed on the country. Ukraine said it was willing to discuss the currently occupied territories with Russia, though the chances of a solution anytime soon are slim. The advances outnumbered the declines in the S&P 500 Index. Discretionary stocks led the way, boosted by Tesla (TSLA) – which launched the first vehicles from its new German factory. Nike (NKE) also posted a big gain, after a strong earnings report and commentary on easing supply-chain woes. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank (“ECB”) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, with investors paying close attention to any comments regarding policy tightening. The European Commission is expected to propose using a $551 million agricultural crisis fund to aid farmers hurt by rising energy costs. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that the European Union must reduce dependence on Russian energy, adding that higher energy prices have hurt manufacturing in Spain. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said it should begin normalising policy as soon as the end of this year or early next year. In Asia, China’s government said it will increase monetary policy support to bolster lending, aid capital markets, and sustain economic growth. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it was too soon to discuss ending easy-money policies as inflation remains well below its 2% target. Taiwan’s export growth for February was much stronger than expected as demand for electronic goods remains steady. Japan’s government issued a power shortage alert for the Tokyo area as a recent earthquake strained the electricity grid. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.78%, while Gold closed 0.42% lower on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 136 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4944 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.13% higher at a price of 4511.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 254 points higher for a 0.74% gain at a price of 34,807.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.94% higher at a price of 14,694.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.9% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 3% higher at a price of 28,040.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1029.
The British Pound closed 0.7% higher at 1.3235.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.8%, closing at $121.02.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 0.51%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher at 1.71%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 11 basis points higher 2.40%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.78% lower at $111.61 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.42% lower at $1921.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. CPI which rose 6.2% versus +5.9% expected. At 11.00 am we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications, followed by a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have New Home Sales at 2.00 pm and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Last Tuesday morning, the S&P, made a low of 4137 before rallying to an overnight high of 4521 for one of the largest squeezes in many years. The S&P continues to shrug off any bad news with 10-year Treasuries closing at a three-year high of 2.40% last night The S&P rally has been relentless with little price discovery in comparison to the back and forth movements that we see in Bear Markets. The big questions is whether this is a bear market rally like we saw in 2018 before we rolled over to hit new lows or is this rally for real that sees all reconnects to the various Moving Averages, get bought. The S&P is now trading well above its 200 Day MA (4473) and this level should attract a lot of buy on any re-test. Yesterday, the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a now 4508 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 4496 while continuing with my strategy of no stop given the incredible gains that we have made so far this year. I will look to add to this position on any further move higher to 4550. The S&P has support from 4463/4478 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a tight 4449 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4492.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.0980 long Euro position worked well with the market rallying to my 1.1020 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0920/1.0970 with a 1.0875 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
After the Dollar traded lower to my 98.30 buy level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 98.53 and I am still flat. The Dollar has support from 97.60/98.20 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 97.25 stop.
Cash DAX
This morning, The DAX opened in my sell range and I went short at 14560. Even though the DAX has now rallied over 2000 points in two weeks, I covered this short position at my revised 14538 T/P level as I am still short the S&P and have enough exposure. The DAX has further resistance from 14650/14750 where I will be a more aggressive seller with a 14825 stop. The DAX has short-term support from 14150/141250 and I will move my buy level to this area with a higher 14035 stop.
Cash FTSE
Overnight, the FTSE rallied to my 7510 sell level before moving lower to my 7496 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Despite UK CPI coming in at a 30-year high of 6.2% this morning, the FTSE is trading higher as all bad news continues to be ignored. Just look at the Japanese Nikkei which closed 3% higher overnight. Remember, a market that cannot fall on bad news has to be respected. The FTSE has further resistance from 7560/7620 where I will be a more aggressive seller with a 7671 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I will be an aggressive seller from 35050/35350 with no stop. As long as the Dow does not break and close below 34300, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, I will move my buy level higher to 34400/34600 with a higher 34235 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index improved to close higher at 44 last night, still showing a reading of ‘’Fear’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied as expected yesterday. However, the market never came close to my buy range and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 14530/14430 with a 14295 wider stop. We have short-term resistance from 14980/15100 where I will be a strong seller with a wider 15255 stop.
June BUND
The relentless sell-off in the Bund continues. This latest move lower saw the Bund hit my 159.20 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 159.65 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 158.60 while leaving my 158.05 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1910 buy level before rallying $15 and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 1885/1900 with an 1869 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 24.60 buy level before rallying this morning to my 24.95 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 23.80/24.50 with a 22.95 stop.
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