U.S. Equity Markets reversed Monday’s aggressive sell-off to close higher led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended yesterday with a gain of 3.16%. Producer Price Index (“PPI”) data for February came in below expectations on a month-over-month basis. Wall Street sees monthly declining PPI as a sign that inflationary pressures are easing, which would mean the Federal Reserve would not need to be so aggressive in tightening monetary policy. Money managers view that as a positive for markets, as it means that the central bank won’t choke off growth too quickly. Lower crude prices helped the easing inflation thesis. Crude oil dropped below $100 per barrel. Rising oil and gas prices have spooked markets, as energy is one of the consumer’s largest expenses (whether it be to heat their home or put gas in their car). This was thought to be another component of inflation. Thus, falling crude prices could be taken as a sign that we will see easing inflation numbers – if the trend holds. Russia and Ukraine continued talks, trying to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. While there has not been anything concrete out of these negotiations, the two sides have said that progress is being made. European leaders have travelled to Ukraine, while the White House said President Joe Biden will travel to Brussels next week for a summit on the Russian invasion. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed mixed. German ZEW economic sentiment fell in March, but came in above estimates, as the Ukraine conflict led to a weaker outlook for the German economy. The U.K. is set to remove all COVID-19 travel restrictions, ahead of the Easter holiday traveling rush. The European Union was said to be considering adding luxury goods and steel to sanctions placed on Russia. The London Metal Exchange said Nickel trading would resume today after a six-day halt due to massive price swings, but would be restricted to prevent further wild price moves. In Asia, The Australian government was said to be considering a suspension of the fuel tax to lower gasoline costs for consumers. China put more cities under lockdown, as daily COVID-19 cases spiked in the area. This could potentially lead to more supply-chain disruptions. Japan’s ruling party called for another stimulus package to help consumers deal with the rising prices forced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The People’s Bank of China injected $15 billion in liquidity into the markets, continuing its accommodative policy. Elsewhere, Oil fell 7.31%, while Gold closed 2.19% lower as the rout continues for these commodities.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 330 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3165 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.14% higher at a price of 4262.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 599 points higher for a 1.82% gain at a price of 33,544.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.16% higher at a price of 13,458.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.64% higher at a price of 25,762.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% lower.
The Euro closed 0.5% higher at $1.0968.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3041.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.8%, closing at $118.35.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 1.57%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher 2.19%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 7.31% lower at $94.69 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.19% lower at $1915.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have a speech from ECB Member Elderson at 9.30 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 11.00 am and Retail Sales at 12.30 pm. Next, we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 2.00 pm. At 3.45 pm President Biden will speak on Ukraine. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 6.00 pm, followed by the Powell Press Conference at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Although, the S&P did not hit my buy range we have been talking constantly over the past week that we may finally see a rally that sticks. Was yesterday Morning’s 4138 a successful test of the Feb 4105 low? There is a good chance that this low holds as for the first time Equity Markets ignored negative comments from Putin. The S&P has now rallied over 150 Handles in 24 hours to sit at 4293 this morning. All eyes are on the Fed when I expect a 25 basis point increase to be announced at 6.00 pm followed by ‘’Dovish’’ comments from Fed Chair in his 6.30 pm press conference. The S&P has short-term resistance at last Friday’s 4335 rebound high. I will be a small seller from 4330/4360 with a 4375 tight stop. I will now raise my buy level to 4235/4255 with a 4208 stop.
EUR/USD
No Change. Ahead of this evening’s FOMC Statement, I will leave my 1.1060/1.1120 sell level unchanged with the same 1.1175 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar which is selling off this morning. I will continue to be a buyer of the Dollar on any dip lower to 97.70/98.30 with a higher 97.15 stop.
Cash DAX
Wow!! The DAX is now trading 600 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago and is now trading a huge 1800 points higher than last week’s 12400 low print. My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 13620 buy level before rallying to my 13710 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has short-term support from 13850/13950 where I will be a small buyer with a 13745 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time..
Cash FTSE
Shortly, after I posted yesterday morning, the FTSE rallied to my 7130 T/P level on my 7090 latest long position and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is opening higher at 7280, helped by the Hang Seng rallying a huge 8% after testing its 2016 low. The FTSE has support from 7130/7190 where I will again be a buyer with a 7075 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow closed over the important 33500 level last night and has tagged on a further 200 points this morning, sitting at 33740 as I go to press. The Dow has strong resistance from 34050/34350 where I will be a small seller with no stop for now. The Dow has strong support from 33100/33400 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a tight 32895 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed with a reading of 19 last night, with the same ‘’Extreme Fear’’ print. Although, this Index has improved 9 points since Friday, we are still showing ‘’Extreme Fear’’ implying that this rally has plenty of room to run higher.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I mentioned at length last week how oversold the DAX had become after falling 23% in just three weeks. Yesterday, the NDX had fallen over 20% with the market becoming as oversold as the DAX. The Weekly RSI for the NDX was below both the March 20 and 2018 lows while 80% of the NASDAQ stocks were below their respective 200-Day Moving Averages, including Apple Shares. The DAX has now bounced 15% off its low print giving you an idea how far the NDX can rally over the coming days. I came into yesterday’s session long the NDX at an average rate of 13075 before the market rallied to my too tight 13130 T/P level and I am still flat, This morning the NDX is trading at 13650. We have support from 13380/13480 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop for now. We have short-term resistance from 13900/14000 where I will be a strong seller with a wider 14205 stop.
June BUND
The Bund rallied to my 161.80 T/P level on my 161.50 long position and I am now flat. This morning the Bund is trading lower at a price of 161.20. The Bund is severely oversold, has strong support from 160.20/160.80 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 159.55 wider stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my aggressive 1909 buy level before rallying to my 1926 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has now fallen $150 in the last week as more and more investors are now trapped at much higher prices. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip to 1883/1898 with an 1869 stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1913.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 23.80/24.40 with a 22.95 stop.
Finally, as tomorrow is Saint Patricks’ Day Ireland is closed Thursday and Friday to celebrate our National Holiday. My next Daily Commentary will be on Monday, March 21. I will come back with any necessary updates for my Platinum Members until my Daily Commentary returns on Monday.
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