Opinion – Tuesday 14 March 2017

Yesterday was a quiet trading session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week. 10y US Treasury yields are back above 2.60% with long dated corporate issuance seemingly a key driver and after being on the back foot...

Opinion – Monday 13 March 2017

In markets, the US Dollar fell along with Treasury yields while US stocks ended modestly higher in the wake of what was undoubtedly a good US Employment Report, but testament to both the ‘whisper’ numbers being to the high side of published consensus estimates and the...

Opinion – Friday 10 March 2017

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR to rally while at the same time it has also pushed Bond Yields higher. Commodities have remained under pressure and it has been the key driver...

Opinion – Thursday 9 March 2017

Yesterday’s ADP Employment Change came in very strong with 298,000 new jobs created. This number, that is an amalgam of historical trends, other macroeconomic indicators (such as Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as ADP’s own payroll processing data, is often a...

Opinion – Wednesday 8 March 2017

Markets continue to tread water ahead of the more important risk events later this week – the ECB meeting tomorrow and US Payrolls on Friday. There was little in the way of significant movement in bonds or currencies, while equities were a touch lower after having had...

Opinion – Tuesday 7 March 2017

US Equities closed yesterday in negative territory with the Dow and S&P ending the trading session with a fall of -0.25% and -0.33% respectively on what turned out to be another quiet trading session. The Financials were again the worst performing sector in the...

Opinion – Monday 6 March 2017

Fed Chair Janet Yellen sang from the same script as her FOMC colleagues before her on Friday and confirmed that ‘fairly soon’ really does means March. Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer later chimed in with “If there has been a conscious effort” to boost expectations of a...

Opinion – Friday 3 March 2017

Yesterday’s trading session was volatile with EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US Jobless Claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on its first trading day. Meanwhile on the cold end...

Opinion – Thursday 2 March 2017

Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say. So it was that New York Fed president Bill Dudley – considered to...

Opinion – Wednesday 1 March 2017

Anyone hoping President Donald Trump was going to get into anything specific on proposed fiscal policy or regulatory changes (financial or otherwise) will surely have come away disappointed from his address to a joint session of Congress. It was, predictably, long on...

Opinion – Tuesday 28 February 2017

In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 2.00 am GMT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction. The US Dollar is not breaking decisively to the...

Opinion – Monday 27 February 2017

Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. Dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US Bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow). Core Eurozone and UK Gilt...

Opinion – Friday 24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the US Dollar yesterday in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal om Wednesday and followed that up yesterday with two more...

Opinion – Thursday 23 February 2017

It is a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focusing on European politics again, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year...