Opinion – Thursday 30 November 2017

Everything is rosy nicely captures the key upbeat message from Fed Chair Yellen appearance before Congress alongside the better than expected US and EU economic data. Higher German inflation looks to have been the trigger for an uplift in core Global Bond Yields while...

Opinion – Wednesday 29 November 2017

It has been a pretty busy past 24 hours with Fed Chair in waiting Powell appearance before a Senate committee, mixed US data releases, confirmation of UK-EU Brexit bill (after some confusion), North Korea launching a ballistic missile and lastly the US Senate Budget...

Opinion – Tuesday 28 November 2017

A relatively quiet start to the week following a relatively quiet holiday-impacted end to last week with the JPY and NZD sharing equal top spot in terms of 24 hour FX performance, confirming the absence of any real rhyme or reason to this market. US stocks closed flat...

Opinion – Monday 27 November 2017

Germany’s efficiency is back, which is a big part of the story vis-à-vis the largely Euro-led weakness in the US dollar in the last week or so and which gathered momentum on Friday. It came alongside a resurgence in risk sentiment, exemplified by the VIX trading back...

Opinion – Friday 24 November 2017

I wrote yesterday how the US Dollar had been sold lower on the back of the cautious comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen the previous evening in her fireside chat with ex Bank of England Chief King. That selling continued after I posted yesterday morning with the...

Opinion – Thursday 23 November 2017

Yesterday we had the UK Budget where UK growth estimates have been marked down from low productivity. Growth for 2017 was cut down from 2.0% to 1.5%, 1.4% growth expected for 2018, then to 1.3% for 2019 and 2020. This is a far cry from the 2½-3% growth not only in the...

Opinion – Wednesday 22 November 2017

Yesterday we saw a return to risk sentiment, with US equities closing at new all-time highs which helped the VIX to close back below 10 for the first time in two weeks. The S&P closed up 0.7% to sit at 2600. Meanwhile RBA Governor Phil Lowe yesterday morning...

Opinion – Tuesday 21 November 2017

Yesterday’s trading session saw an improvement in risk sentiment with European equities closing in positive territory while US equities also closed higher. The US Dollar is stronger against most currencies and US Treasury yields are also higher with the move led by...

Opinion – Monday 20 November 2017

What is particularly noteworthy about the losses seen on Thursday and Friday is that they came in the face of a US Dollar that was falling not rising and also in the midst of a rally in Emerging Market currencies. The JPM EM FX index of global EM FX has been falling...

Opinion – Friday 17 November 2017

For all the talk of an emerging bear market in equities of late, and for whatever reason, European and US equities have reversed in size which started shortly after I posted early yesterday morning, led by tech stocks. After testing three month highs, the VIX index is...

Opinion – 16 November 2017

The mild risk off tone continued yesterday with both equities lower (S&P500 -0.4%, Euro Stoxx -0.3%), and Bond Yields lower (USTs -3.9bps, Bunds -21bps), while the VIX crept higher but is still at a low 12.91. Economic data certainly does not support the risk off...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 November 2017

Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices. Ahead of US CPI this afternoon the US Dollar and longer dated US Treasury yields are lower...

Opinion – Tuesday 14 November 2017

Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on Central Bank Communication. Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda are among those scheduled to talk. The...

Opinion – Monday 13 November 2017

A somewhat bitty, non-descript market on Friday with asset markets not all marching to the same tune. The approach of Monday’s US Vets. Day holiday looks to have contributed to the malaise. The main feature was US Treasury yields pushing higher, back testing 2.40%....