Opinion – Friday 2 February 2018

The US Dollar  has resumed its downtrend with Euro strength the main culprit and with USD Indices trading sub key support levels the big question is how long will the Dollar fall? After yesterday’s soft data and ongoing repricing of RBA expectations the AUD is the G10...

Opinion – Thursday 1 February 2018

As widely expected, in what was Fed Chair Yellen’s last attendance in that role, the FOMC has voted unanimously (9-0) to keep the Fed Funds rate steady at a range of 1.25-1.50%. (As part of the changeover process, Jerome Powell was also formally elected as the new...

Opinion – Wednesday 31 January 2018

US stocks closed weaker for a second day running, the S&P down a little over 1%, while the VIX is up to 15 from 11 at the end of last week. Still well below its long run average (nearer 20) but a big percentage move in 48 hours. While part of the blame for weaker...

Opinion – Tuesday 30 January 2018

US Treasury Yields have led the sell-off in core Global Bond Yields and for a change the US Dollar has responded to the UST led rise in yields and outperforms across the board. Meanwhile equities have started the week on the back foot and notably the rate sensitive...

Opinion – Monday 29 January 2018

Sentiment is now at eye-popping levels in a wide-array of markets , indicating that we may be approaching a change of trend. Last week, the Daily Sentiment Independent Index hit 91% bulls in Gold, 90% in Palladium, 94% bullish in Platinum, 90% of traders are bullish...

Opinion – Friday 26 January 2018

Yesterday was all about the ECB who are more optimistic, while surprisingly Draghi choose not to jawbone the Euro, as I expect greater language changes in March. Bottom line: The ECB is becoming incrementally more optimistic on the Euro-Zone economy and on the path...

Opinion – Thursday 25 January 2018

Speaking from Davos after I posted yesterday morning, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying ‘’obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities’’. While he endeavoured to put some context around this...

Opinion – Wednesday 24 January 2018

Davos kicked off formally this morning, (now in its 47th year), with President Trump to speak Friday at a reception for CEOs, an event that seems to be drawing as much interest as any from the press. Trump is the first President at Davos since President Clinton in...

Opinion – Tuesday 23 January 2018

A full Senate vote to ratify the deal struck a last evening to re-open the US government took place overnight and passed, but does nothing more than kick the can two weeks down the road (until February 8). Avoiding a repetition of the last few days is contingent on a...

Opinion – Monday 22 January 2018

The US Senate on Friday failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to pass a stop-gap funding measure that would have averted the partial government shutdown that instead went into effect at one minute past midnight on Friday. It was not just Democrat opposition that...

Opinion – Friday 19 January 2018

Focus is currently on Washington where a US Government shutdown deadline looms this weekend unless a stopgap Funding Bill is agreed. That has not perturbed US equities, which remain near their recent record high, but US Dollar Indices show a distinctly lower trend as...

Opinion – Thursday 18 January 2018

The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike yesterday afternoon. While saying it would adopt a cautious approach to further tightening in order not to choke off growth (and also citing NAFTA as one particular concern) Money...

Opinion – Wednesday 17 January 2018

Euro slippage was initially the main feature after I posted following a Der Spiegel report that the Berlin division of the SPD would reject the vote to form a grand coalition with Merkel’s party. Once investors noted that this division only casts 23 votes out of 600...

Opinion – Tuesday 16 January 2018

After I posted early yesterday morning we have seen the broader BBDXY Dollar Index join the narrow DXY by pushing (just) through its 2017 lows on a closing basis, to its weakest since the start of 2015. The US Martin Luther King holiday has evidently proved not to be...