Opinion – Thursday 17 May 2018

Commodity currencies have all made a decent comeback since I posted yesterday morning despite a fairly mixed performance from commodity prices, albeit Brent crude has now topped $79 for the first time since November 2014. Euro weakness has much to do with it, linked...

Opinion – Wednesday 16 May 2018

Contrary to my expectations, the US Dollar roared higher after I posted yesterday morning with the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index closing higher by 0.61%, US 10y Treasury yields testing above 3.09% during the session just and still at 3.072% as I go to print. It was not...

Opinion – Tuesday 15 May 2018

Yesterday’s trading session was noticeable for its absence of any key Economic releases where a further lift in oil prices seems to have had the largest identifiable role in bond and equity markets. The US Dollar has regained a measure of support, though it has been...

Opinion – Monday 14 May 2018

We had a fairly subdued end to what has been a pretty eventful week characterised by additional oil market (and broader commodity price) strength linked to Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, a failure of US CPI inflation to accelerate, an...

Opinion – Friday 11 May 2018

The USD and Sterling are the both softer over the past 24 hours, after US core CPI surprised by 1/10% to the downside and the Bank of England shaved a 1/10% off its inflation forecasts and gave a nod the current market pricing that currently see no more than three...

Opinion – Thursday 10 May 2018

Price action over the past 24 hours has been all about the jump (+3%) in oil prices following yesterday the decision by President Trump to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. 10y UST yields have climbed above 3% and US equities have rallied with gains led by...

Opinion – Wednesday 9 May 2018

Though markets were on tenterhooks yesterday awaiting President Trump’s decision on whether the US would pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the decision to do so when it came ‘’ an immediate hard’’ exit and known a few hours before the formal 2pm Washington...

Opinion – Tuesday 8 May 2018

Last Friday we had a mixed US labour market report, but the decline in the Unemployment rate to 3.9% eventually lifted the US Dollar and shorter dated US Treasury yields. US-China trade talks ended with no progress and although the lack of resolution keeps the...

Opinion – Friday 4 May 2018

The market is continuing to look for that somewhat elusive inflation beacon and from a US standpoint, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls will be next to watch as we wait to see whether earnings growth can get a three handle. Adding a little more softness that ensued after the...

Opinion – Thursday 3 May 2018

As expected the Fed left the Funds Rate unchanged and the key take away is that in spite of the recent inflation uplift the Fed is happy to stay the course and does not yet see the need to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. Ahead of the Fed, market moves were...

Opinion – Wednesday 2 May 2018

Yesterday we saw some currencies break some key levels. The breaks below here have been a common feature of many of the big currency moves witnessed since mid-March. EUR/USD is the latest to push below its 200dma (just above 1.20) with the psychological 1.20 level now...

Opinion – Tuesday 1 May 2018

After a brief positive start US equities ended the day in negative territory, the US Dollar is stronger across the board and US Treasury yields are lower with the move led by the back end of the curve. Oil prices are higher after Israel accused Iran of having a secret...

Opinion – Monday 30 April 2018

The US Dollar firmly rejected a test of the important 92.0 level on the narrow DXY index and US 10 year Treasuries recoiled from the mid-week achievement of a move onto a 3% handle to close at 2.96%. US stocks failed to hold their Intel and Amazon earnings-related...

Opinion – Friday 27 April 2018

The week’s main event, ECB president Draghi post-meeting press conference, has come and gone leaving EUR/USD the best part of a cent lower, but it has been a largely Euro-centric affair with limited contagion to other G10 currencies versus the US dollar, bar the Swiss...