Opinion – Thursday 24 January 2019

The US dollar is weaker (and AUD a little stronger) from where I posted yesterday morning, thanks largely to gains for Sterling and which has dragged EUR along for at least part of the ride. US stocks having turned negative despite earlier been buoyed by positive...

Opinion – Wednesday 23 January 2019

After observing MLK day on Monday, US equities have opened the week sharply lower reflecting a change in market sentiment amid a flurry of headlines suggesting US-China trade talks are not heading in the right direction, China’s President speech stressing the need to...

Opinion – Tuesday 20 January 2019

With the U.S. out for Martin Luther King Day and Cash stocks and Bonds both closed, trading was quiet. In the UK, Prime Minister May’s ‘’Plan B’’ for Brexit essentially the resoundingly rejected Plan A but with an intent to go back to Brussels and try find a different...

Opinion – Monday 19 January 2019

Friday’s price action saw an extension of the feel good vibes from previous days boosted by news that China had offered to buy more than $1trn in US goods over 6 years in order to reduce China’s trade surplus with the US. Mostly solid US data releases also helped...

Opinion – Friday 18 January 2019

Risk assets were boosted in the last 90 minutes of trading last evening amid speculation the US is considering lifting trade tariffs on China in order to appease markets. The report suggests this is a debate between trade officials with President Trump not yet...

Opinion – Thursday 17 January 2019

The UK government has survived the no-confidence motion tabled on Tuesday by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn; to no-ones surprise hence Sterling is little moved. We now await the government’s ‘’Plan B’’ response to developments that are supposed to come by Monday, the...

Opinion – Wednesday 16 January 2019

The British pound came under pressure in front of the vote on the Prime Minister’s Brexit withdrawal Agreement, which she has lost by a crushing 432 to 202 votes. Sterling is bouncing on this, on the view that the Labour opposition no confidence motion tabled after...

Opinion – Tuesday 15 January 2019

Yesterday’s seemingly dire China December trade numbers cast a pall over risk market as well as AUD and NZD during Monday’s trading session, albeit AUD is back to 0.72 and the sell-off in European and US stock markets has been limited to +/-0.5%. Citibank kicked off...

Opinion – Monday 14 January 2019

Following five up days in a row commencing on Friday 4th January, the US equity rally ran out of steam Friday, the main Indices all ending (just) in the red, albeit the NASDAQ is still showing a 5% year to date gain and the S&P500 is up over 3.5%. The VIX is...

Opinion – Friday 11 January 2019

The US Stock Market reversed earlier gains after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed were determined to reduce their balance sheet. Subsequently the market rallied off these initial lows when he told the Economic Club in Washington that, “You should anticipate that...

Opinion – Thursday 10 January 2019

Favourable sentiment in regards to prospects for a Sino-US trade deal remain intact after talks ended yesterday following a third day of discussions. Though the official word from the Office of the US Trade Representative was fairly bland (a formal statement is...

Opinion – Wednesday 9 January 2019

The US stock market rally has now extended to a third day, a tweet from US President Trump saying no more than ‘’talks with China are going very well’’ and news that the current discussions in Beijing have been extended into a third day, enough to keep risk sentiment...

Opinion – Tuesday 8 January 2019

Trade talks in between Beijing resumed yesterday and included an unscheduled appearance by China’s Vice President Liu He, an act that further boosted sentiment towards a deal. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross later expressed optimism to CNBC that the U.S. can reach a...

Opinion – Monday 7 January 2019

It would be easy to dismiss Friday’s US Payrolls Report as a backwards looking indicator. Certainly last Thursday’s Manufacturing ISM report -in particular the slump in the new orders sub-index- is a worry, revealing a clear linkage with the sharp slowdown in Chinese...